The Cryptonomist

France is entering a decisive phase for crypto regulation as firms face a hard deadline for Mica authorisation under the European Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.

Transitional regime in France ends on 1 July 2026

The French regulator AMF has reminded all Digital Asset Service Providers (DASPs) that the transitional regime will expire on 1 July 2026. Under this regime, firms active before the entry into force of the European MiCA Regulation could continue offering crypto-asset services in France without a full licence.

However, these providers now have a strict timetable. DASPs that want to continue operating must obtain authorisation as a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) under MiCA. The AMF is urging any firm that has not yet filed an application to submit a complete authorisation file as soon as possible.

Moreover, the supervisor stresses that particular attention must be paid to the quality and completeness of each application. DASPs that do not plan to pursue their activities after the end of the transitional regime are invited to prepare an orderly cessation of business in advance, allowing enough time to protect clients.

Legal basis and scope of the transitional period

Pursuant to Article 143 of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation and Article 8 III of the DDADUE Law of 9 March 2023, registered or licensed DASPs in France have benefited from a temporary framework. Those offering services listed in the 5° of article L. 54-10-2 of the Monetary and Financial Code before MiCA entered into force could keep serving clients until 1 July 2026.

That said, once the deadline passes, only CASPs authorised in accordance with MiCA will be allowed to provide crypto-asset services in France. This marks a clear regulatory shift from national registration to harmonised European licensing.

Conditions to operate as a CASP after the deadline

From 1 July 2026, providers may operate in France only if they are CASPs authorised under MiCA. They can do so either by securing a formal authorisation from their national competent authority, which is the AMF for candidates established in France, or through a notification procedure.

In particular, certain financial entities may rely on the notification mechanism laid down in Article 60 of MiCA. However, this is possible only if they are eligible for the procedure and if the notification submitted to the relevant national authority is deemed complete by that authority.

Moreover, CASPs are subject to a dual layer of obligations. There are general requirements that apply to all services and additional rules tailored to each specific type of crypto-asset service. These include organisational, conduct, and prudential standards designed to enhance investor protection.

European passport and whitelist of authorised providers

CASPs authorised under MiCA will be able to benefit from the European passport mechanism. This allows them to provide their services in other Member States of the European Union once they are duly licensed in a single jurisdiction, such as France.

Furthermore, the AMF maintains a public whitelist of authorised CASPs, giving users a way to verify which entities are permitted to operate. The list is available on the AMF website and is expected to become a key reference point for investors and counterparties across the region.

ESMA calls for early preparation

In a statement published in December 2025, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) invited all market participants to anticipate the end of the transitional period. The authority highlighted that review periods for CASP licences under MiCA can last up to four months once a complete file is submitted.

However, the AMF notes that initial files received from applicants are rarely complete at first submission. Clarifications or even substantial amendments are often requested before the dossier is considered complete and capable of leading to a favourable decision. This iterative process may cause additional delays for firms.

That said, the French regulator is urging DASPs that wish to continue their activities to file their MiCA applications without waiting for the last moment. It reiterates that the thoroughness and quality of the application file will be crucial for a smooth and timely review.

Implications for non-compliant providers

The AMF has underlined the legal consequences for providers that fail to comply by 1 July 2026. Any firm that continues to offer crypto-asset services in France without CASP authorisation after this date risks a two-year prison sentence and a fine of €30,000, under Articles L. 54-10-4 and L. 572-23 of the Monetary and Financial Code.

Moreover, authorities will monitor compliance and can take enforcement action in the event of infringements. The AMF may publish a blacklist of unregistered providers and issue public warnings. If necessary, it can also initiate legal proceedings to block access to the websites of unauthorised service providers.

Orderly cessation of activities and client protection

DASPs that expect not to be in a position to comply with MiCA on 1 July 2026 are strongly encouraged to plan an orderly cessation of activities. The AMF recommends that these providers limit themselves to strictly necessary operations for winding down their business as of 30 March 2026, at the latest.

This wind-down plan should prioritise the protection of crypto-asset holders. It must ensure that clients can recover their assets either by transferring them to a CASP authorised to operate in France or by selling them, with sufficient prior notice. Such measures aim to avoid market disruption and client losses during the transition.

In this context, firms preparing for mica authorisation or, alternatively, for an orderly exit will play a central role in shaping a safer and more transparent crypto ecosystem in France and across the European Union.

In summary, the end of the transitional regime on 1 July 2026 marks a turning point for crypto-asset service providers in France, compelling them either to secure MiCA-compliant licences or to exit the market in an orderly and client-focused manner.

In a fresh sign of aggressive AI data center investment, an Apollo Nvidia loan is reportedly nearing completion to support an ambitious chip-leasing strategy tied to Elon Musk.

Apollo lines up multibillion-dollar financing for Nvidia hardware

A roughly $3.4 billion loan from Apollo Global Management is close to being finalized for an investment vehicle that will buy Nvidia chips and lease them to xAI, according to The Information report published on Feb 9. The outlet cited a person familiar with the matter, suggesting terms are at an advanced stage.

Under the structure, the vehicle would own the high-end processors while Elon Musk‘s AI startup pays to use them over time. However, the report did not disclose the loan’s interest rate, exact tenor or collateral package, leaving key details of the financing still unclear.

The Information also noted that Valor Equity Partners, a longtime backer of several Musk ventures, is arranging the deal between Apollo and the buying entity. Moreover, the investment could be formally wrapped up as soon as this week if negotiations stay on track.

Musk consolidates AI ambitions through SpaceX and xAI

Less than a week before news of the financing emerged, Musk announced that SpaceX had acquired the artificial intelligence company he also leads, in a transaction that reshapes the ownership structure of his ventures. The deal values the rocket and satellite group at $1 trillion and the AI business at $250 billion, according to his remarks.

That said, the combination ties Musk’s launch and satellite capabilities more closely to his AI initiatives, potentially giving xAI privileged access to data and infrastructure. It also places a substantial notional valuation on the emerging AI firm, signaling investor belief in its growth prospects despite intense competition from established players.

The reported apollo nvidia loan would align with Musk’s stated ambition to build large-scale AI infrastructure capable of training advanced models. However, stacking significant debt against specialized hardware could expose investors to swings in chip demand and future pricing for AI compute resources.

AI infrastructure boom drives record chip and data center spending

Big technology companies are expected to spend more than $600 billion in 2025 to acquire advanced chips and build massive data centers needed to train and deploy AI systems, the report said. Moreover, such outlays underline how critical access to high-performance processors has become in the current phase of the AI race.

In this environment, leasing structures for Nvidia chips allow new AI entrants and capital providers to share the burden of huge upfront hardware costs. However, they also introduce counterparty risk if startup clients fail to scale revenue fast enough to cover long-term lease obligations.

Deals like this echo older equipment-financing models used for aircraft or telecommunications infrastructure, but applied to cutting-edge AI accelerators. That said, the speed of technological change in chips may make recovery values less predictable than in traditional asset classes.

Key players stay silent as deal advances

The report said SpaceX, Apollo and xAI did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment on the prospective financing. Moreover, neither party has publicly confirmed the final size, timing or precise structure of the loan.

Market watchers will be looking for further disclosures on covenants, hardware ownership and any guarantees tied to Musk or his other companies. However, with Valor Equity Partners reportedly orchestrating the arrangement, participants appear comfortable pushing ahead despite the capital intensity and evolving regulatory environment around AI compute.

Overall, the prospective financing underscores how rapidly AI infrastructure is being capitalized, as investors race to secure Nvidia chips and position for long-term demand in advanced computing capacity.

Investor interest in AI, crypto, and Web3 is accelerating as the AI.com domain purchase by a major exchange founder shines a spotlight on emerging creator platforms.

Crypto.com founder secures AI.com for $70 million

According to the Financial Times, Kris Marszalek, founder of Crypto.com, has bought the premium domain AI.com for about $70 million. The report notes that other bidders for the address reportedly included OpenAI and X.ai, underscoring how strategic AI-related web properties have become.

However, the acquisition is drawing attention not only because of its price tag, but also due to what it signals about the convergence of artificial intelligence and blockchain ecosystems. Major brands are increasingly positioning themselves at this crossroads.

AI and blockchain converge in the content-creation economy

The article places the move within the fast-growing content-creation economy, estimated at roughly $85 billion. In this market, legacy platforms still dominate distribution and take sizable fees while maintaining tight centralized control over creators’ audiences and revenues.

Moreover, a new wave of Web3 projects is targeting these frictions by combining smart contracts, tokenized incentives, and AI-driven automation. Backers argue that such designs could support lower fees, greater creator ownership, and programmable revenue sharing across communities.

SUBBD protocol: AI tools with on-chain creator controls

Within this context, the report highlights SUBBD, a protocol built on an Ethereum-based architecture that blends generative AI features with decentralized controls for creators. The project is positioned as an example of how AI and blockchain can be fused into a single product experience.

SUBBD’s platform reportedly includes an AI Personal Assistant designed to help automate repetitive engagement tasks, such as responding to fan queries or scheduling content. In addition, the protocol offers voice-cloning capabilities to help creators scale branded audio and video output while maintaining a consistent personal style.

That said, supporters argue that the full primary_keyword of ai domain purchase and similar moves are creating a halo effect around AI-powered creator tools that can be integrated directly with on-chain payment rails.

SUBBD token presale and economic design

Presale data cited in the article indicates that SUBBD had already raised more than $1.4 million, pointing to early investor interest. During this phase, the SUBBD token was listed at a price of $0.057495, setting the initial valuation parameters for the ecosystem.

Moreover, the protocol reportedly features a staking program that offers a fixed 20% APY for the first year to users who lock their tokens. This is framed as an incentive mechanism intended to reward long-term participation and stabilize token circulation during the platform’s growth phase.

HoneyHive governance and creator-focused features

Beyond staking, SUBBD is said to integrate an on-chain governance module called HoneyHive. Through this framework, token holders can vote on significant platform decisions, including which creators are onboarded, what platform themes are prioritized, and how new features are rolled out.

However, the emphasis on governance also reflects a broader trend in Web3, where projects attempt to align the interests of users, investors, and developers via tokenized voting systems. In theory, this can provide creators with a more direct say in the rules and economics that shape their work environment.

Investor sentiment around AI-blockchain utility protocols

The high-profile AI.com deal, combined with growing coverage of creator-focused protocols like SUBBD, is being interpreted as evidence of deepening ties between AI systems and blockchain infrastructure. Market participants see potential in products that merge automated content tools with transparent payment and governance rails.

Overall, the reported domain acquisition and subsequent attention suggest that investors are increasingly focused on utility-driven protocols, where AI capabilities, staking incentives, and token-holder governance converge to challenge incumbent platforms within the rapidly expanding digital creator economy.

Portando disciplina istituzionale agli asset digitali, DeFi Technologies ha introdotto l'indice DVIO per trasformare i flussi di capitale regolamentati in una lente prospettica sui mercati delle criptovalute.

Un nuovo benchmark basato su flussi reali degli investitori

DeFi Technologies Inc., attraverso la sua sussidiaria Valour, ha lanciato l'Indice di Opportunità di Investimento Valour DEFT (DVIO), un benchmark di livello istituzionale che traccia come il capitale degli investitori regolamentati sia allocato negli asset digitali utilizzando flussi reali attraverso la piattaforma ETP di Valour. L'indice viene aggiornato settimanalmente e copre i primi 50 asset nell'ecosistema di Valour per asset in gestione (AUM) e flussi.

Ethereum and Bitcoin continue to trade in defined ranges as crypto markets show mixed momentum, movements restrained, and on-chain data gaining the attention of traders and analysts. Discussions on current Ethereum price predictions have focused on whether the market could be in store for extended consolidation or renewed volatility.

Coin Bureau insights from IntoTheCryptoVerse Analysis suggests a scenario where Ethereum would have to revisit lower levels before any sustained expansion. In the meantime, the commentary situates that the current conditions are transitional rather than directional.

Source: x/@coinbureau

Ethereum Price Prediction Centers on the $2,000 Range

The current price of Ethereum is close to $2,000, a range often called the “mid-value zone.” Experts say that in the past, this zone served as a holding zone for the market during a prolonged period of stagnation. It can be observed that the movement of the price around this zone does not manifest any significant momentum.

According to various Ethereum prediction charts, in similar stages of previous market cycles, sideways price movements were noted rather than a strong breakout. These are usually periods of volatility compression, and analysts are watching for further developments in these sectors.

Analysts Outline Potential Retest of $1.5K Support

The analysis cited by Coin Bureau indicated that there’s also a risk of decline to the lower pricing band at about $1,500, but later on in the cycle. The price structures from previous Ethereum cycles indicate that each Ethereum price rally was followed by some retracement before it began to push forward. This trend is apparent in most Ethereum price prediction models.

In prior cycles, there have also been significant drawdowns before powerful expansions. Such pullbacks happened even when overall network activity was stable. Such price action is said to be a feature of ‘late-stage shakeouts’ rather than changes in the underlying trend.

Source: X/@coinbureau

On-Chain Metrics Show Network Stability

Data from Glassnode’s on-chain analytics shows Ethereum’s market capitalization is trending in a consolidated pattern. It is believed that a consolidated market capitalization level reflects the stability of the capital remaining in the network, as opposed to the exiting of funds on a large scale. This pattern is unlike the deeper bear phases seen in the prior cycles.

Market cap is also a major factor when performing price prediction for Ethereum since a consistent decline in this regard usually signals a downward movement for the cryptocurrency. This, however, does not seem to be the case at the moment. It appears to be a period of accumulation for the asset, just as in previous

ETHs Market Cap

Supporting this theory, active addresses reveal that active Ethereum addresses follow a fluctuating pattern, rather than decreasing continuously. The number of active Ethereum addresses appears to increase at regular periods.

ETHs Number of Active Addresses

Transaction volume also shows notable spikes during the same period. Higher transaction counts appear while price remains range-bound. Similar divergences were seen in previous cycles, during phases of consolidation that preceded larger price movements.

ETHs Number of Transactions

Long-Term Projections Reflect Diminishing Returns

Historical data, as prior analyzed, creates a basis of reference for the analysis. The 2017-2018 cycle is valued to have achieved more than 15,000% growth, whereas the growth achieved within the 2020-2021 cycle has surpassed 5,000%. A model of diminishing returns is currently under consideration.

As per this model, it is estimated by Ethereum price prediction for the upcoming growth phase to rise by between 1,500 and 2,000 percent, leading to a potential and possible long-term price range of between $24,000 and $32,000 based on the proportionate cycle.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on market trends and does not guarantee future results. It should not be treated as financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk, so always do your own research (DYOR) before investing.

Dopo una brutale svendita e interruzioni legate al maltempo, l'ecosistema del mining di bitcoin sta subendo un forte reset che riporta in primo piano l'economia del mining di Bitcoin.

La più grande riduzione della difficoltà dalla repressione del 2021 in Cina

La rete di Bitcoin BTC $70,411.45 ha appena registrato un calo dell'11% nella difficoltà di mining, la caduta più ripida dalla repressione dell'industria cinese nel 2021. L'aggiustamento è seguito a un rapido calo della hashrate scatenato da prezzi in caduta e diffuse interruzioni legate a tempeste invernali negli Stati Uniti.

La difficoltà di mining determina quanto sia difficile scoprire nuovi blocchi e si aggiusta automaticamente circa ogni due settimane. Questo meccanismo mantiene il tempo medio di blocco vicino a 10 minuti, indipendentemente da quante macchine siano online.

In a year defined by macro volatility and rapid automation, BingX AI is emerging as the centerpiece of the exchange’s strategy to reinvent how traders operate.

BingX commits $300 million to an AI-first trading stack

BingX has allocated $300 million to artificial intelligence over the long term, positioning itself as an “all-in AI” venue where automation is treated as core market infrastructure. Rather than adding isolated bots, the exchange is rebuilding its stack so that machine learning informs every major stage of the trading workflow.

The internal architecture spans multiple models coordinated by specialized agents mapped to distinct points in the process, from idea generation to risk review. Moreover, these systems are being calibrated for both crypto and traditional markets, so signals can move across asset classes in real time.

Two flagship products, BingX AI Bingo and BingX AI Master, sit on top of this stack as decision-support layers rather than execution engines. However, their role is central: they translate dense market data into structured scenarios that retail and professional traders can use without writing code or building models from scratch.

How BingX AI Bingo and AI Master guide trading decisions

AI Bingo acts as a conversational trading idea generator, scanning more than 1,000 market pairs across crypto, commodities and other instruments. It surfaces potential scenarios, highlights support and resistance levels, and offers probability-style assessments to help users frame entries and exits.

AI Master is built as a personalized layer on top of those insights, adapting to a user’s risk tolerance and trading style. That said, the tool stops short of fully automated execution, instead adjusting recommendations in real time as conditions shift and as it learns from user behavior.

BingX product leadership has described the outcome as an experience that feels “less like software and more like a companion who understands you.” In practice, this design aims to create an AI trading companion that can make complex, cross-market information more intuitive without removing human oversight.

AI meets tokenized metals and traditional markets

This AI push is unfolding as exchanges increasingly combine digital assets with traditional instruments such as gold, oil and tokenized equity exposure. From a single AI powered interface, BingX users can track gold, oil and Bitcoin (BTC) around major macro releases, rather than toggling between platforms.

Macro demand for safe-haven assets is also accelerating. UBS has raised its gold price target to $6,200 per ounce for March, June and September 2026, while expecting prices to ease slightly to $5,900 by year-end. Moreover, those upgraded forecasts reinforce interest in tokenized precious metals and other real-world assets onboarded to crypto exchanges.

BingX argues that routing these instruments through blockchain settlement improves traceability and auditability. At the same time, AI tools can help traders interpret macro-driven moves across asset classes in a unified view, instead of reacting to isolated order books or single-asset dashboards.

Volumes, users and the shift in competitive dynamics

The scale of BingX’s traditional products is already meaningful. The exchange reports more than $2 billion in 24-hour trading volume in its TradFi lineup alone and says its AI tools have attracted millions of users. Overall, the broader ecosystem now claims more than 40 million accounts globally.

As analysts frame AI-supported, multi asset trading environments as a baseline expectation by 2026, the competitive focus is drifting away from raw execution speed. Instead, interpretation, risk assessment and personalization are becoming the key battlegrounds for exchanges looking to differentiate in both crypto and traditional markets.

In that context, the bingx ai stack is intended to convert correlated, cross-asset noise into usable decisions. However, the long-term test will be whether traders actually trust AI-guided workflows when volatility spikes and liquidity fragments across venues.

Broader crypto market backdrop

The AI investment comes against a backdrop of strong digital-asset liquidity and intense macro sensitivity. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $70,961, with 24-hour turnover near $42.3B, making it a focal point for global risk appetite.

Ethereum (ETH) is changing hands close to $2,095, on roughly $20.9B in 24-hour volume. Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) trades around $87.6, with about $3.6B in day-long activity. For BingX and its rivals, these flows form the proving ground for whether AI-native exchanges can genuinely help traders keep pace.

Related themes include the rollout of AI Master as a crypto trading “strategist,” deeper dives into the AI Bingo and AI Master stack, and the latest UBS upgrade to its 2026 gold forecasts. Altogether, they point to a market where AI, tokenization and cross-asset risk analysis are converging into a single, always-on trading environment.

Outlook for AI-native, multi-asset venues

Looking ahead, exchanges that integrate multi-model AI systems with both digital and traditional products may define the next stage of market structure. Moreover, as regulatory clarity evolves and institutional adoption grows, traders are likely to expect cross-asset risk tools and personalized analytics as standard features.

For now, BingX’s $300 million bet signals that the arms race is shifting from latency to intelligence. Whether the platform can convert that investment into durable user loyalty will depend on how effectively its tools turn complexity into clear, actionable insight.

Authorities in South Korea have launched a formal review after a high-profile Bithumb bitcoin glitch exposed serious weaknesses in a major crypto promotion.

The $40 billion promotion error at Bithumb

South Korean regulators are examining how Bithumb, one of the country’s leading exchanges, initiated an exchange of $40 billion in Bitcoin that it apparently did not hold on its books. The anomaly has raised concerns over internal controls at large trading platforms.

The issue surfaced when the Seoul-based exchange, during a promotional campaign, began crediting accounts with vast sums instead of the modest reward that had been announced. However, no actual transfer of on-chain coins matching that scale has been reported so far, intensifying questions about the internal accounting.

How the crypto exchange promotion mistake unfolded

According to the Financial Services Commission, the incident occurred on Feb. 6 when Bithumb started crediting user balances with a “small fortune” of Bitcoin. Each participant should have received only 2,000 won, equivalent to $1.37, under the terms of the campaign.

In its financial services commission statement on Sunday, the regulator said the problem stemmed from a single employee inputting the payout field as Bitcoin rather than Korean won. Moreover, this internal error cascaded through the exchange’s systems and led to what officials have described as a ghost bitcoin incident in user interfaces.

Regulatory response and industrywide scrutiny

In response, South Korean authorities have formed a dedicated task force to conduct a regulatory task force investigation into industry practices. The team is examining whether other domestic trading platforms could be vulnerable to similar lapses in configuration or oversight.

The new group will look closely at how exchanges manage promotional campaigns, verify reward limits, and reconcile internal ledgers. That said, the episode has already become a central focus of the ongoing south korea crypto probe, which aims to tighten risk controls in the retail trading environment.

Focus on Bithumb bitcoin systems and controls

Regulators are now assessing whether the bithumb bitcoin accounting architecture provided adequate safeguards against manual input errors of this scale. However, the authorities have not yet indicated whether formal sanctions will follow once the fact-finding process concludes.

Investigators are also gathering information on how quickly Bithumb identified the problem, whether user access to the inflated balances was restricted in time, and how the platform communicated the issue. Moreover, findings from this case could inform new guidance for all major crypto venues in Seoul.

Implications for South Korea’s crypto sector

The Bithumb case has renewed debate over how tightly exchanges should be supervised in one of Asia’s most active digital asset markets. While some industry participants warn against overregulation, officials argue that errors involving tens of billions of dollars, even if only virtual entries, can undermine public confidence.

For now, South Korean regulators are signaling that they will treat this as a structural warning rather than an isolated mishap. The outcome of the investigation is expected to shape the next phase of policy toward large trading platforms and their promotional activity.

In summary, the Bithumb promotion error has become a catalyst for wider oversight of crypto exchanges in South Korea, with the $40 billion accounting glitch prompting authorities to scrutinize internal controls, user protection, and future risk management standards across the sector.

In a move closely watched by crypto markets, the binance safu mechanism is again in focus as the exchange boosts its dedicated protection reserves.

New Bitcoin purchase for the SAFU protection pool

On February 9, Binance disclosed that its SAFU fund address acquired an additional 4,225 BTC, reinforcing the exchange‘s emergency insurance pool for users. Moreover, the company revealed on X that this latest allocation corresponds to approximately 300M USD in stablecoins, underlining the scale of the operation.

The official Binance SAFU BTC address now holds a total of 10,455 BTC, marking a significant expansion of its on-chain reserves. However, the move is not only about numbers; it also signals a deliberate effort to anchor the fund in a highly liquid and widely recognized crypto asset.

Strategic focus on Bitcoin and investor confidence

This renewed focus on Bitcoin accumulation within the Safety Asset Fund for Users is viewed as a strategic step to enhance asset resilience. In particular, the latest safu fund bitcoin accumulation underscores Binance’s intention to keep its emergency backing aligned with leading market assets.

Market observers note that the growing BTC balance could serve as a stabilizing factor for user sentiment. That said, the impact on broader market dynamics will depend on how transparently the binance safu reserves continue to be reported and adjusted over time.

Overall, the increase to 10,455 BTC in the protection wallet highlights Binance’s ongoing effort to strengthen user safeguards while signaling long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Earlier this month, a sharp cryptocurrency sell-off exposed how bitcoin market makers can unintentionally magnify price swings during periods of stress.

From $77,000 to $60,000: why the slide was so violent

Bitcoin plunged from about $77,000 to nearly $60,000 between Feb. 4 and Feb. 7, erasing billions in value across the broader crypto market and wiping out some trading funds. Most commentators blamed macro pressures, spot ETF outflows and rumors of forced liquidations. However, a key structural factor in the derivatives market also appears to have accelerated the move.

That factor was the behavior of options market makers, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. These professional liquidity providers usually help stabilize trading by continuously posting buy and sell quotes. Yet their hedging activity can sometimes amplify volatility, especially when positioning is skewed in one direction.

How dealers normally operate in crypto markets

In day-to-day trading, dealers stand on the opposite side of investor orders, quoting both a bid and an ask to keep markets liquid. They earn money from the bid-ask spread, the small difference between the buying and selling price of an asset, rather than by speculating on whether prices will rise or fall. Moreover, this model is designed to keep them as close to market-neutral as possible.

To manage risk, dealers hedge their exposure to price moves by trading the underlying asset, such as Bitcoin, or related derivatives. When investors buy call or put options, the dealers who sell those contracts typically adjust their positions in the spot and futures markets. That said, the speed and direction of this hedging can become destabilizing when large option positions cluster around key price levels.

The short-gamma trap between $60,000 and $75,000

Thielen explains that, during the sell-off, options market makers were heavily short gamma in the $60,000–$75,000 range. In practice, this meant they had sold substantial amounts of options at those strikes without holding enough offsetting hedges. As a result, they were highly sensitive to sharp price moves around those levels.

Being short gamma forces dealers to hedge in the same direction as the market move. As Bitcoin dipped below $75,000, these firms sold BTC in spot and futures to keep their positions near neutral. However, this extra selling added to existing pressure from macro drivers and ETF outflows, helping to deepen the decline.

Thielen estimated there was about $1.5 billion in negative options gamma concentrated between $75,000 and $60,000. He noted this cluster “played a critical role in accelerating Bitcoin’s decline and helps explain why the market rebounded sharply once the final large gamma cluster near $60,000 was triggered and absorbed.” This description highlights how dealer hedging can both intensify a drop and set the stage for a sharp bounce once positioning clears.

Negative gamma and the self-feeding selling cycle

Negative gamma describes a setup where dealers must trade in the direction of the underlying price move to stay hedged. As Thielen put it, “options dealers, who are typically the counterparties to investors buying options, are forced to hedge in the same direction as the underlying price move.” In the $60,000–$75,000 window, that dynamic turned them into incremental sellers as prices slid.

In effect, the negative gamma effect created a self-reinforcing loop. As Bitcoin fell, dealers sold more to maintain neutrality, which pushed prices even lower and required further selling. Moreover, this feedback mechanism made the drop feel disorderly, even though it largely stemmed from rule-based risk management rather than discretionary panic.

This pattern is familiar in traditional equity options market makers, where large dealer positions can exacerbate swings once key strikes are breached. The recent episode shows that the same mechanics are increasingly relevant in digital assets. The growing size of the options market means dealer positioning can now influence bitcoin spot behavior in ways that were far less visible a few years ago.

When hedging turns supportive for price

Importantly, dealer hedging does not always push prices lower. In late 2023, market participants saw the opposite effect when similar positioning existed above $36,000. At that time, dealers had sold significant amounts of options at higher strikes and again found themselves short gamma as the market moved.

As Bitcoin’s spot price broke through $36,000, dealers were forced to buy BTC to rebalance their risk. That demand helped fuel a rapid rally toward and above $40,000. However, this shows that the same structural forces that accelerated the February plunge can also power strong upside moves when the direction of travel reverses.

In both episodes, the interplay between investor flows and dealer hedging turned routine market moves into more dramatic swings. The growing influence of options market makers suggests traders and risk managers need to watch positioning data and gamma exposure more closely, particularly around crowded strike levels.

A maturing market with hidden feedback loops

The February breakdown underscores how the bitcoin market makers ecosystem now resembles that of established financial markets, where dealer balance sheets and option structures quietly shape price action. Moreover, the presence of concentrated negative gamma can turn what starts as a macro-driven pullback into a sharp, mechanically amplified move.

For investors, the lesson is that not every violent sell-off or sudden rebound is purely about sentiment or news. Internal market plumbing, especially dealer hedging tied to large option positions, can be just as important in explaining why prices overshoot on the way down and on the way up.

As the crypto derivatives market continues to grow, understanding these dynamics will likely become essential for professional participants. The latest crash toward $60,000 showed how invisible hands in the options arena can transform normal volatility into outsized moves, even when they are simply following risk-management rules.

In un passo per approfondire la propria infrastruttura di ricerca, l'acquisizione di OpenAI di Neptune segna un passo strategico per migliorare il monitoraggio e la comprensione dei modelli AI all'avanguardia.

OpenAI si muove per acquisire Neptune

OpenAI ha stipulato un accordo definitivo per acquisire neptune.ai, una piattaforma focalizzata sul monitoraggio degli esperimenti e sull'analisi degli addestramenti per modelli avanzati. Questo accordo è progettato per rafforzare gli strumenti e l'infrastruttura che sostengono i progressi nella ricerca all'avanguardia. Sebbene i termini finanziari, come il prezzo di acquisizione di neptune ai, non siano stati divulgati, l'intento strategico è chiaro.

Nuova settimana, nuovo oroscopo crypto dedicato alla prossima settimana dal 9 al 15 febbraio 2026.

Questa settimana sarà segnata da due transiti

Venere entra in Pesci da martedì 10/2;

Saturno entra in Ariete a partire da sabato 14/2.

Da diversi mesi, stiamo dedicando spazio all'oroscopo crypto scritto da Stefania Stimolo, un'esperta in astrologia e blockchain. Questa è una rubrica settimanale che presenta l'oroscopo per ogni segno zodiacale, disponibile ogni domenica esclusivamente su The Cryptonomist.

Nel nostro slogan “Raccontiamo il Futuro,” volevamo approfondire il tema, parlando in modo giocoso, con questa rubrica di intrattenimento.

The RW framework has become, in recent years, one of the most debated tools in the tax management of cryptocurrencies in Italy. Originally designed to monitor financial assets held abroad, it is now also used for crypto-assets, but often with controversial results.

According to Stefano Capaccioli, the issue is not only applicative but structural: the RW framework was not designed for a decentralized ecosystem like that of cryptocurrencies.

Why the RW Framework Exists

To understand the current issues, it is necessary to start from its origin. The RW framework was established during the years when Italy had strict currency restrictions. With the liberalization of capital movements and entry into the European Union, the State relinquished prior control over foreign accounts, replacing it with a communication obligation.

The objective was simple: to know what taxpayers held abroad, in a context where the tax administration did not have direct access to the information.

A system designed for traditional finance

The RW framework works relatively well when it comes to bank accounts, securities deposits, stored gold, or financial investments. In all these cases, there exists:

an intermediary,

a jurisdiction,

an easily determinable value.

Cryptocurrencies, however, break this pattern.

Wallet does not mean “container”

One of the most common conceptual errors concerns the wallet. In the interpretation of the financial administration, the wallet is often equated to a portfolio that “contains” cryptocurrencies.

In reality, as highlighted by Capaccioli, the wallet contains nothing. It is a tool for managing cryptographic keys and digital identities. Crypto-assets reside on the blockchain, not in the wallet. This already weakens the idea of linking monitoring to a location or physical custody.

The Year-End Value Issue

Another critical issue concerns the obligation to indicate the value of crypto-assets as of December 31. While for Bitcoin, Ether, or stablecoins this value is easily obtainable, the same does not apply to thousands of illiquid tokens, airdrops, or assets lacking a reference market.

In many cases, assigning a value is impossible or arbitrary. Yet, the obligation to monitor remains, exposing the taxpayer to the risk of future disputes.

Monitoring also on Italian intermediaries

The current regulation requires the inclusion of cryptocurrencies held with Italian intermediaries in the RW framework. This represents an additional anomaly: the monitoring was designed to compensate for the lack of information, but in the case of Italian exchanges, the data is already available to the administration.

With the introduction of automatic information exchange mechanisms, such as those provided at the European level, the original function of the RW framework appears increasingly unjustified.

A Tool to Rethink

According to Capaccioli, the extension of the RW framework to crypto-assets risks becoming a disproportionate and ineffective requirement. Without a thorough revision, tax monitoring will continue to clash with the very nature of cryptocurrencies, generating more uncertainty than actual control.

Dubai, Emirati Arabi Uniti – Febbraio, 2026 – Il PlanX 2026 si svolgerà il 27-28 Aprile 2026 presso il Grand Hyatt Dubai Conference & Exhibition Centre, riunendo più di 3.000 fondatori, investitori e consulenti che cercano più di quanto una singola giurisdizione possa offrire. Man mano che il panorama globale si evolve, con l'aumento delle tasse sulla ricchezza, controlli finanziari più severi e instabilità geopolitica che creano volatilità e complessità, individui e imprese stanno cercando nuovi modi per garantire libertà, flessibilità e crescita resiliente.

30 gennaio 2026

Cliente: Algorand Foundation

Portavoce/riposte attribuibili a: Marc Vanlerberghe, CMO, Algorand

Contatto giornalista: Amelia Tomasicchio, Editor in Chief e Co-fondatrice, The Cryptonomist

Cosa ha motivato l'Algorand Foundation a ristabilire la propria sede negli Stati Uniti, e perché Delaware in particolare?

È in realtà altrettanto importante spiegare perché siamo andati via in primo luogo.
Per un periodo di tempo, l'ambiente normativo negli Stati Uniti ha reso difficile operare con il livello di chiarezza e prevedibilità che le infrastrutture finanziarie serie richiedono. Quella incertezza ha spinto molte organizzazioni, inclusa la nostra, a operare altrove. Ciò che è cambiato è che ora vediamo un percorso verso regole più chiare e un coinvolgimento più costruttivo, il che rende possibile di nuovo la pianificazione a lungo termine.

In recent months, the topic of stablecoins has become central to the debate on cryptocurrency taxation in Italy. Not so much for their use as a payment tool or for stabilizing volatility, but rather for the fiscal distortions that some recent regulatory choices are causing.

During an Instagram live session, tax expert Stefano Capaccioli analyzed one of the most controversial aspects of the current regulation: the tax treatment of E-money tokens, particularly those denominated in euros, such as EURC, compared to dollar-pegged stablecoins, like USDC.

What are E-money tokens and why are they included in tax regulations

With the implementation of the MiCAR regulation, stablecoins are classified at the European level as E-money tokens when they represent a stable value pegged to a fiat currency. This context includes both euro and dollar stablecoins.

However, the Italian tax regulation introduces a significant distinction: the 26% tax rate is confirmed only for income and capital gains derived from E-money tokens denominated in euros. For all other crypto-assets, including dollar-denominated stablecoins, the more punitive regime remains, with a tax rate of 33% starting from 2026.

The Choice to Prioritize the Euro (and Its Limitations)

According to Capaccioli, this approach raises more than a few concerns. On one hand, it seems like an attempt to favor instruments pegged to the single currency. On the other hand, it ignores a fundamental fact: within the European Union, the euro is not the only currency.

Countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Hungary use different currencies, fully legitimate within the single market. Limiting the tax benefit exclusively to E-money tokens in euros could therefore come into conflict with the principle of free movement of capital, one of the pillars of the European framework.

The Operational Paradox of Stablecoins

The real short circuit, however, emerges in practice. As observed by Capaccioli, if a taxpayer realizes a capital gain on Bitcoin and converts the value into EURC, the capital gain is still taxed at 33%, because it originates from the original asset.

At the same time, the regulation establishes that the conversion of E-money tokens into euros does not generate capital gains. This leads to a curious outcome: the only scenario in which the 26% tax rate might apply concerns very limited cases, such as lending EURC in exchange for interest.

A Possible Tax Arbitrage?

During the live session, another problematic aspect was highlighted. By combining the regulations on crypto-to-crypto swaps and those on E-money tokens, a preferential treatment could emerge for certain operations involving dollar stablecoins.

In theory, an exchange from USDC to EURC could fall under the swaps of crypto-assets “having the same characteristics and functions,” and therefore not be taxable. If subsequently, the EURC is converted into euros without generating a capital gain, it creates a regulatory gap that risks encouraging opportunistic behaviors.

A regulation that risks increasing confusion

The introduction of specific regulations for euro-denominated E-money tokens could have represented a step forward. However, as currently formulated, it risks increasing uncertainty and producing effects opposite to those desired.

As often happens with Italian crypto taxation, the issue is not the intention, but the execution: a layering of regulations that intersect without coordination, leaving taxpayers and professionals in a permanent gray area.

Amelia Tomasicchio

Editor in Chief and co-founder at The Cryptonomist

Twitter: @ametomasicchio

Follow me on Linkedin!

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