OGpi

My view on $BTC and $ETH in July: Don’t rush to call it a bull run is back—first check whether capital is flowing back.

As of June 29, BTC is still getting tugged around near the $60,000 level, while ETH is trading sideways around $1,600. The biggest issue in the market right now isn’t that there are no stories, but that risk appetite is still weak, and ETF inflows have not truly recovered.

For BTC in July, focus on two levels: first, whether the area around $60,000 can hold; second, if BTC can reclaim the $65,000 to $68,000 range, market sentiment may stabilize noticeably. Otherwise, July is more likely to be a weak rebound and a grinding base.

ETH will have greater upside elasticity, but the pressure will also be more obvious. A weak ETH/BTC indicates that capital is still more defensive; unless on-chain activity picks up, ETF inflows resume, or the ecosystem narrative heats up again, ETH may continue to underperform BTC.

Key milestones I’ll watch in July:
1. July 2: US non-farm payrolls data, which impacts expectations for rate cuts.
2. July 14: US June CPI, which determines sentiment for risk assets.
3. July 15: PPI, to see whether inflation pressure spreads.
4. July 28–29: FOMC—watch the Fed’s remarks on interest rates and liquidity.
5. Whether BTC/ETH ETFs change from continuous net outflows to net inflows.

My take: July isn’t an all-out bullish bet. It’s about whether “capital flows + macro data” can give the market some room to breathe. BTC is better as the directional bellwether, while ETH is better for rebound elasticity.

The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.

#BTC #ETH

$CAP #合约 #CAP
CAP I don’t want to chase and keep following shots from this kind of position. First, let’s see whether 0.028867 can keep holding. The 24h trading volume is 64.76 million, the funding rate is basically flat, and the open interest is around 108 million coins, which suggests this move isn’t just a pure short squeeze. If the pullback doesn’t break, I’ll keep holding. On the upside, first target is 0.03289; we’ll talk about 0.036837 only after there’s real breakout volume. If it drops back below 0.02504, then I’ll admit I was wrong on this trade.

$HEI #现货 #HEI
HEI From the spot price, what I’m watching is this line at 0.1521. If it holds, it’s still a strong consolidation. It would be normal to retest 0.1667 later. In the past 24h, the high/low was 0.1667/0.1310, with trading volume of 10.34 million. Momentum is still there. If 0.1667 can be pushed through, the short term can still try for 0.1867; if it falls back below 0.15, I won’t linger.

$IN #合约 #IN
IN For this move, I’m watching this line at 0.1578—hold it and it’s still the 1H acceleration phase. At 0.1658, grind a bit more and there’s still a chance to push higher. The 24h trading volume has already reached 62.66 million, and the funding rate is -0.2516%. Open positions are still around 77.68 million coins, which suggests there’s significant divergence, but the heat hasn’t died. If we truly break above 0.1658 with increased volume, I’ll look toward 0.1857; if it falls back below 0.1578, I’ll step out first—no hard holding.

#道指收创纪录新高 I don’t think you can just treat this as the excitement of U.S. stocks. The Dow Industrials closed above 52,000 for the first time; at its core, it’s that risk appetite has been pulled up again, and capital is willing to buy back certainty and large-cap assets. For the crypto market, this kind of environment isn’t too bad in the short term—$BTC as long as key support isn’t broken through, the macro sentiment is still being underpinned. $ETH and $SOL are more about whether funds will overflow from the U.S. stock tech theme. My view is simple: new highs in U.S. stocks don’t automatically mean a sudden surge in the crypto market right away, but they will reduce panic in the market. Next, watch the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields; if these two don’t suddenly snap back higher, there’s still room for a crypto rebound. #BTC #ETH #SOL

For this @OpenGradient task, what I mainly care about is its goal to put AI model hosting, inference, and verification into more open infrastructure. For me, $OPG is worth tracking not just because of the reward pool, but because if OpenGradient Chat can truly get model calls, verification results, and user use cases to run smoothly, then the ecosystem will have room to keep spreading. The number of participants in the event is already quite high, and there’s been some short-term buzz. After that, it remains to be seen whether the project can produce real usage data. #OPG #OpenGradient https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/profile/OpenGradient

$AIGENSYN #现货 #AIGENSYN The spot price for this batch isn’t just a stealth pump anymore—today it’s outright showing strength. Current price is 0.03928, 24H high is 0.04262, low is 0.02258, and turnover is 24.94 million. For the short term, I’m watching whether it can hold around 0.035. If it can hold, then I’ll keep it and grind it higher; if it falls back below 0.031, I’ll cut first—no need to give back the profits.

$BTW #合约 #BTW After this spike higher, it started to “wash”/consolidate, but the structure hasn’t fully fallen apart yet. Current price is 0.06345. The 24H high is 0.06456, the low is 0.04773. Trading volume is 32.31 million. The funding rate is almost flat. Open interest is 101.7 million. For me, the line at 0.06096 is the today’s watershed: if it holds, we can still try to touch 0.0645 again. If it drops back below 0.0504, I won’t linger—I’ll pull out first and wait for the next leg.

$EVAA #合约 #EVAA After this trade is completed, there hasn't been a move like one foot smashing through, which indicates that the funds are still circulating inside. Current price 0.9479; 24H high 0.979; low 0.7609; trading volume 22.55 million; funding rate 0.043%. Open position is 7.96 million. I personally keep an eye on the 0.909 line—if it holds, I’ll keep watching as it grinds through the previous high; if it drops back below 0.8448, I’ll exit first and won’t try to hold it through the drawdown.

$H #合约 #H This ticket is really strong today. Current price is 0.0737. The 24H high is 0.08084, the low is 0.05862, and the trading volume is 45.69 million. The funding rate is basically flat, with positions at 206 million. My pace is very simple: if 0.0707 holds, I’ll keep holding to see how it handles the 0.0808 area—once it actually breaks through, we can talk about adding to the position. If it drops back below 0.0627, then it’s no longer strong and turns weak. I’ll exit first and wait for the next move.

$TAIKO #合约 #TAIKO This pull didn’t kill it directly, which means the bulls haven’t let go yet. Now the price is around 0.0751; the 24H high is 0.0945 and the low is 0.0636, with trading volume of 28.14 million. The funding rate is -0.238%, and open interest is 31.95 million. I’m watching the 0.0719 line—if it holds, I’ll look for a pullback to 0.0808. Only if it can reclaim and stand back above it will there be a chance to test the previous high. If it falls back below 0.0668, I’ll retreat first—I won’t stubbornly hold on.

$ONG #现货 #ONG The spot move this time isn’t exactly quiet—it’s been moving sideways around 0.0547. The 24H high is 0.06197, the low is 0.04601, and the trading volume is 2.38 million. For me, the key isn’t chasing higher; it’s whether it can repeatedly hold above the 0.051 area. If it can hold, there’s still a chance to grind back up above 0.058. If it gets dumped back down toward 0.049, I won’t make excuses for it—I’ll stop.

$ORDI I’m watching right around 3.80 right now. After the 1H moved up, there wasn’t an immediate breakdown on the pullback—meaning the bulls are still protecting it. As long as it doesn’t drop back down again, I’ll keep waiting for it to touch 4.36 once more. If the previous high is truly reclaimed on the close, there’s still room above worth a quick look. Now the price is 3.956. The 24H high/low is 4.364/3.207, and the trading volume is 146 million. Funding rate is 0.005%, and open interest is 2.645 million. If the 1H closes back below 3.80, I’ll exit first—I won’t stubbornly hold on.#合约 #ORDI

$RAVE This wave moved from 0.31 up to 0.53. After that, the pullback to 0.42 has been holding without breaking, and the short-term structure is still fairly smooth. My plan is simple: if 0.4219 is held, I’d still look for a rebound. First target is 0.5374. If it can take out the previous high, then we can talk about 0.60. Current price is 0.4292. The 24H high/low is 0.5374 / 0.308. Turnover is 359 million. Funding rate is 0.025%. Open interest is 28.54 million. If price closes back below 0.4219 on the 1H timeframe, I’ll step aside. #合约 #RAVE

$SYN spot: I’d rather wait for a pullback to confirm. As long as 0.4747 doesn’t break, it’s still strong. If we hold this level, I’ll continue watching around 0.5461. Now the price is 0.4945. The 24H high/low is 0.5461/0.3507, with turnover of 37.81 million. If it really falls back below 0.4747, I’ll first step back—I won’t fight it head-on. #现货 #SYN

$TAC For this part, I’m watching it at 0.0573. It’s been grinding sideways above, which means the support/continuation is still there. As long as the 1H chart doesn’t drop back below this line, I’ll keep holding and wait for 0.0632 to be touched once more. If it truly breaks and stands above, the next thing I’m watching is 0.0708. Current price is 0.0597. The 24H high/low is 0.0632/0.0217. Trading volume is 427 million RMB. Funding rate is 0.069%. Open interest is 490 million. If it falls back below 0.0573, I won’t force it through.#合约 #TAC

$BTC On this 4H chart, I’m not in a hurry to chase longs right now. The area around 60,000 is clearly heavy resistance; the previous push to 60,758 failed to hold, which shows selling pressure is still there above. In the short term, I’m watching two levels: if it can regain and hold 60,000-60,800, then the bulls can be said to have taken back the rhythm; if it keeps grinding below MA25, then once 58,850 breaks, it could easily retest around 58,030 below. It’s not that there’s no opportunity now, but the position is a bit awkward. First let’s see whether it can reclaim the 4H close. #BTC #BTCUSDT #contract

$TAGUSDT This one—I’m looking at the 1H. It isn’t the most aggressive among the top five on the gainers list, but its price action is more comfortable instead. It just got pulled up from around 0.0009, and the volume really has come in. Now I’m watching 0.001116—if it holds steady, there’s still a taste of another push. For a pullback, as long as 0.00106 doesn’t break, I’ll keep treating it as a strong consolidation. If it drops back toward 0.0009, that would suggest the money exited too quickly—no need to stubbornly hold on. That’s how small-cap coin futures are: when it’s strong, you have to be bold about watching—but if the line breaks, don’t get too attached. #TAG #TAGUSDT #合约

#Europe begins cleaning up unlicensed crypto platforms; I think this will become increasingly important in the second half of the year.

MiCA’s transition period is basically ending by July 1. Platforms that haven’t obtained the EU CASP authorization can no longer continue serving European users the way they used to. On the surface, this looks like regulatory news, but the real impact is where the money will go.

In the past, everyone only looked at who had more coins and who had lower fees. Going forward, you may also need to watch one more thing: who can survive compliantly in the major markets. Big platforms will be more favored, while space for smaller platforms and gray channels will be squeezed. For assets like $BTC , which institutional capital finds easier to understand, this may actually not be a bad thing.

As for $ETH and $SOL , I’ll be watching how the ecosystem takes over. The clearer the regulation, the more boldly compliant capital will enter—but capital won’t randomly buy. In the end, it will still flow to chains with strong liquidity, solid narratives, and enough applications.

So I don’t think MiCA is only about Europe. It’s more like a signal: in the second half, the crypto market may gradually shift from “who can tell a story” to “who can be bought by compliant capital.”

#欧洲开始清理无牌加密平台 #BTC #ETH