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Hardcore Degen Trader: All-In or Nothing.
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Spent the afternoon wandering around Hong Kong checking out brokerages.
Most of the big ones are visibly annoyed when you ask questions now 😂 One small shop is still trying to fly under the radar.
A lot of HK banks offer brokerage services, but getting a card is getting harder. Bank of China HK is basically impossible now.
Zhongan and similar platforms still work, but you end up buying watered-down US stocks.
Realistic options for investing are shrinking fast.
This is where on-chain US equities start to make sense — could absorb a lot of people getting squeezed out of traditional routes.
Most people just want the mainstream names anyway, which covers like 90% of use cases. If you're hunting small caps or have specific ideas, you're not gonna be stopped by account setup anyway.
Most of the big ones are visibly annoyed when you ask questions now 😂 One small shop is still trying to fly under the radar.
A lot of HK banks offer brokerage services, but getting a card is getting harder. Bank of China HK is basically impossible now.
Zhongan and similar platforms still work, but you end up buying watered-down US stocks.
Realistic options for investing are shrinking fast.
This is where on-chain US equities start to make sense — could absorb a lot of people getting squeezed out of traditional routes.
Most people just want the mainstream names anyway, which covers like 90% of use cases. If you're hunting small caps or have specific ideas, you're not gonna be stopped by account setup anyway.
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What's truly useless?
Anything that wastes your time, messes with your mood, and stops you from making money.
First thing that came to mind? $ETH 😂
Look, I've been around long enough to see Ethereum go from revolutionary to... well, complicated. The gas fees, the endless roadmap promises, the "merge" that took forever. Meanwhile people are out there grinding, trying to actually build and ship.
Sometimes the best tech isn't the one with the most features. It's the one that just works and gets out of your way.
Anything that wastes your time, messes with your mood, and stops you from making money.
First thing that came to mind? $ETH 😂
Look, I've been around long enough to see Ethereum go from revolutionary to... well, complicated. The gas fees, the endless roadmap promises, the "merge" that took forever. Meanwhile people are out there grinding, trying to actually build and ship.
Sometimes the best tech isn't the one with the most features. It's the one that just works and gets out of your way.
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Visited a friend's company yesterday — honestly pretty mind-blowing.
They have this humanoid robot that makes pour-over coffee. Takes 2-3 days just to calibrate it. You feed it the shop's customer data, and it learns everyone's preferences. Water temp, timing, cleaning routines, pouring technique — literally copying what a pro barista does.
Then there's this college kid on their team. Just graduated from Tianjin University. Wasn't even an AI major, just did some related coursework with his professor. Starting salary? 18k RMB.
Meanwhile, my friend at a top-tier finance firm in China is hiring fresh grads from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics for 8k. Even overseas returnees are only getting 15k these days.
Think about that. Parents spend all that money sending kids abroad, years of investment — and they come back to this. If that were my kid, I'd be pretty frustrated.
Pretty sure the top 985/211 universities are going to have to rethink their programs soon. Those traditional majors everyone used to chase — marketing, business admin — they're not going to cut it anymore.
The gap is real, and it's widening fast.
They have this humanoid robot that makes pour-over coffee. Takes 2-3 days just to calibrate it. You feed it the shop's customer data, and it learns everyone's preferences. Water temp, timing, cleaning routines, pouring technique — literally copying what a pro barista does.
Then there's this college kid on their team. Just graduated from Tianjin University. Wasn't even an AI major, just did some related coursework with his professor. Starting salary? 18k RMB.
Meanwhile, my friend at a top-tier finance firm in China is hiring fresh grads from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics for 8k. Even overseas returnees are only getting 15k these days.
Think about that. Parents spend all that money sending kids abroad, years of investment — and they come back to this. If that were my kid, I'd be pretty frustrated.
Pretty sure the top 985/211 universities are going to have to rethink their programs soon. Those traditional majors everyone used to chase — marketing, business admin — they're not going to cut it anymore.
The gap is real, and it's widening fast.
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Don't pick your homeland. Pick fertile ground.
Wherever benefits you — that's home.
Yeah, I'm talking about riding the AI wave in US equities. Optics, power, machinery — the whole chain.
Dump your altcoins.
Wherever benefits you — that's home.
Yeah, I'm talking about riding the AI wave in US equities. Optics, power, machinery — the whole chain.
Dump your altcoins.
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BSC has this massive mountain right now that nobody can really climb over.
It's just sitting there, capping everything. Every new project hits that ceiling.
Two ways this plays out:
1. The mountain keeps growing taller — and somehow pulls the entire BSC ceiling up with it.
2. The mountain collapses — takes the whole chain down in a flash crash, then we rebuild from scratch.
People always talk about liquidity being the mountain. But honestly? Trust is the real mountain here. Can we still trust it? Or is that trust about to crumble?
It's just sitting there, capping everything. Every new project hits that ceiling.
Two ways this plays out:
1. The mountain keeps growing taller — and somehow pulls the entire BSC ceiling up with it.
2. The mountain collapses — takes the whole chain down in a flash crash, then we rebuild from scratch.
People always talk about liquidity being the mountain. But honestly? Trust is the real mountain here. Can we still trust it? Or is that trust about to crumble?
5.27 — fai attenzione a un potenziale dump
$BTC è stato respinto all'EMA20 ieri dopo giorni di lateralità. Ora sta scendendo. Questo potrebbe segnare l'inizio di una nuova gamba verso il basso, quindi resta all'erta.
Le azioni crypto negli USA sono anche crollate. Con la legge in arrivo a giugno, $CIRCLE sta mostrando classici segnali di "compra la voce, vendi la notizia".
$BTC è stato respinto all'EMA20 ieri dopo giorni di lateralità. Ora sta scendendo. Questo potrebbe segnare l'inizio di una nuova gamba verso il basso, quindi resta all'erta.
Le azioni crypto negli USA sono anche crollate. Con la legge in arrivo a giugno, $CIRCLE sta mostrando classici segnali di "compra la voce, vendi la notizia".
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Look, in this era you really can't care too much about saving face.
You think you're playing it safe — keeping your head down, not making mistakes, not embarrassing yourself. But you end up living like an NPC.
Don't be afraid of rejection. Don't be afraid of looking dumb. The US president literally showed everyone what it means to not care about getting slapped in the face.
Becoming a meme, getting roasted — none of that matters.
Fear of embarrassment is the biggest roadblock to success. Think about how many opportunities and bull runs you've missed because of it.
Every content creator's confidence? Built through getting roasted in public over and over.
You gotta be willing to go for it. Other people's opinions shouldn't be your barrier.
You think you're playing it safe — keeping your head down, not making mistakes, not embarrassing yourself. But you end up living like an NPC.
Don't be afraid of rejection. Don't be afraid of looking dumb. The US president literally showed everyone what it means to not care about getting slapped in the face.
Becoming a meme, getting roasted — none of that matters.
Fear of embarrassment is the biggest roadblock to success. Think about how many opportunities and bull runs you've missed because of it.
Every content creator's confidence? Built through getting roasted in public over and over.
You gotta be willing to go for it. Other people's opinions shouldn't be your barrier.
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Here's something I've noticed over the years:
If you keep publicly shilling a coin and it just won't move — there's probably something wrong with it.
Think about it. You're bringing more retail in. You're probably adding to your own bag as you shill. So who's left to pump it?
Everyone's buying. No one's got dry powder to actually drive price up. Classic trap.
Seen this play out too many times.
If you keep publicly shilling a coin and it just won't move — there's probably something wrong with it.
Think about it. You're bringing more retail in. You're probably adding to your own bag as you shill. So who's left to pump it?
Everyone's buying. No one's got dry powder to actually drive price up. Classic trap.
Seen this play out too many times.
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Bitfinex Alpha is one of the few research reports I actually read cover to cover — right up there with Glassnode. Their framework hits macro, on-chain, technicals, and institutional flows. Solid stuff.
Their latest take? This bounce doesn't have enough structural buying to offset the macro headwinds. $BTC likely stuck between $72k–$80k short term.
One key metric they cite: Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change (RC 30D NPC). Currently sitting at +$2.8B/month. Compare that to the 2023–2025 bull run kickoff when it ripped from $2B to $10B — we're an order of magnitude off.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs just bled $994M in a week, ending six straight weeks of inflows. Even BlackRock's IBIT joined the exit.
Macro side: oil's stuck high because of strait blockades, so rate cut expectations are basically dead. Long-end yields rising = direct pressure on all risk assets. $BTC, being super liquidity-sensitive, feels it first.
So yeah, "we're still in a bear market."
I mostly agree with the report. But here's the thing they don't emphasize enough: the *direction* of RC 30D NPC matters more than the absolute number.
Going from deeply negative to +$2.8B means money is starting to position early. It's not bull-run fuel yet, but it's the same direction as going from +$2.8B to +$10B.
Look back at early 2023. Macro was brutal — Fed still hiking, banks collapsing. But in hindsight, that was the worst already passing.
Right now, inflation fears are tied to oil, oil's tied to strait closures, and closures aren't permanent. If the market's already priced in the bad outcome and things don't get worse — or even improve slightly — we reprice fast.
From -$30B to +$2.8B is the same vector as +$2.8B to +$10B. Just earlier in the cycle.
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How I read Bitfinex Alpha every week:
1⃣ Summary: weekly view + key $BTC levels
2⃣ Market signals: fund flows, on-chain, sentiment
3⃣ Macro: identify the biggest variable and how it's shifting liquidity expectations
It's free to subscribe — lands in your inbox weekly. Highly recommend if you want to stay sharp.
Their latest take? This bounce doesn't have enough structural buying to offset the macro headwinds. $BTC likely stuck between $72k–$80k short term.
One key metric they cite: Realized Cap 30D Net Position Change (RC 30D NPC). Currently sitting at +$2.8B/month. Compare that to the 2023–2025 bull run kickoff when it ripped from $2B to $10B — we're an order of magnitude off.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs just bled $994M in a week, ending six straight weeks of inflows. Even BlackRock's IBIT joined the exit.
Macro side: oil's stuck high because of strait blockades, so rate cut expectations are basically dead. Long-end yields rising = direct pressure on all risk assets. $BTC, being super liquidity-sensitive, feels it first.
So yeah, "we're still in a bear market."
I mostly agree with the report. But here's the thing they don't emphasize enough: the *direction* of RC 30D NPC matters more than the absolute number.
Going from deeply negative to +$2.8B means money is starting to position early. It's not bull-run fuel yet, but it's the same direction as going from +$2.8B to +$10B.
Look back at early 2023. Macro was brutal — Fed still hiking, banks collapsing. But in hindsight, that was the worst already passing.
Right now, inflation fears are tied to oil, oil's tied to strait closures, and closures aren't permanent. If the market's already priced in the bad outcome and things don't get worse — or even improve slightly — we reprice fast.
From -$30B to +$2.8B is the same vector as +$2.8B to +$10B. Just earlier in the cycle.
------------------------------------------
How I read Bitfinex Alpha every week:
1⃣ Summary: weekly view + key $BTC levels
2⃣ Market signals: fund flows, on-chain, sentiment
3⃣ Macro: identify the biggest variable and how it's shifting liquidity expectations
It's free to subscribe — lands in your inbox weekly. Highly recommend if you want to stay sharp.
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Random life tip: if you're gonna drink Coke, drink the real sugar version.
Most mainland China Coke uses high fructose corn syrup to cut costs. Fructose gets processed only by your liver — unlike glucose which every cell can use directly. So it puts extra load on your liver.
Plus HFCS just tastes worse unless it's ice cold. The colder it gets, the sweeter it tastes. That's also why Coke prices stayed flat in China for so long — they kept costs down by switching ingredients.
If you can, grab imported Coke. Those usually use actual cane sugar.
Zero sugar or artificial sweeteners? Not even going there. Nutrition science is still fighting over whether those are harmful or not. No consensus yet.
Look, if you're already drinking Coke, might as well drink the good stuff with real sugar. That's what pure enjoyment is about.
Most mainland China Coke uses high fructose corn syrup to cut costs. Fructose gets processed only by your liver — unlike glucose which every cell can use directly. So it puts extra load on your liver.
Plus HFCS just tastes worse unless it's ice cold. The colder it gets, the sweeter it tastes. That's also why Coke prices stayed flat in China for so long — they kept costs down by switching ingredients.
If you can, grab imported Coke. Those usually use actual cane sugar.
Zero sugar or artificial sweeteners? Not even going there. Nutrition science is still fighting over whether those are harmful or not. No consensus yet.
Look, if you're already drinking Coke, might as well drink the good stuff with real sugar. That's what pure enjoyment is about.
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Funny how they tell people to stop investing in US stocks and come play in China's A-shares instead.
Sure, A-shares have "great companies" — like Juli Rigging, which just got slapped with an investigation.
You know, the one owned by Yang Zi's family. A few years back when that reality show was hot, he was all over it flexing his "listed company shareholder" status, playing the boss character. Now the stock's cut in half and retail investors are buried alive.
Only now they investigate? Where were they before?
First they hyped themselves as the supplier for aircraft carrier arresting cables, then claimed to be a core supplier for rocket recovery systems. Juli's PR team will say literally anything. And platforms like Tonghuashun just ran with it, helping pump different narratives. They wrote some fancy stories, cashed out 2.8 billion yuan — while the company's total net profit over 16 years was only 600 million.
And Yang Zi himself? Beyond being an actor, he built this whole "Dzi Bead King" persona. Even tried to launch a Dzi bead RWA project in crypto, hanging around with some sketchy Ponzi crews.
This kind of background, and they can just harvest retail money over and over in China's capital markets.
You can't buy Jensen Huang or Elon Musk.
They won't let you buy Jack Ma or Pony Ma either.
But they'll let you buy Yang Zi types all day long.
Enjoy that privilege.
Sure, A-shares have "great companies" — like Juli Rigging, which just got slapped with an investigation.
You know, the one owned by Yang Zi's family. A few years back when that reality show was hot, he was all over it flexing his "listed company shareholder" status, playing the boss character. Now the stock's cut in half and retail investors are buried alive.
Only now they investigate? Where were they before?
First they hyped themselves as the supplier for aircraft carrier arresting cables, then claimed to be a core supplier for rocket recovery systems. Juli's PR team will say literally anything. And platforms like Tonghuashun just ran with it, helping pump different narratives. They wrote some fancy stories, cashed out 2.8 billion yuan — while the company's total net profit over 16 years was only 600 million.
And Yang Zi himself? Beyond being an actor, he built this whole "Dzi Bead King" persona. Even tried to launch a Dzi bead RWA project in crypto, hanging around with some sketchy Ponzi crews.
This kind of background, and they can just harvest retail money over and over in China's capital markets.
You can't buy Jensen Huang or Elon Musk.
They won't let you buy Jack Ma or Pony Ma either.
But they'll let you buy Yang Zi types all day long.
Enjoy that privilege.
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Heavy fines, asset seizures, penalties stacking up.
But honestly? Might not be the worst thing.
Think about it — China voluntarily gave up the world's largest $BTC mining power and exchanges. That's what made America comfortable enough to add bitcoin to national reserves. That's when Wall Street finally felt safe to jump in and take control.
Same story with Hong Kong and US stocks.
Audits, restrictions, taxes — none of that actually stops people who genuinely want to invest. It just pushes more people to discover Web3 and stablecoins.
You can't stop decentralization. Not every financial system has to be built on KYC.
Sure, decentralization carries its own ideology. And yeah, strict regulation isn't inherently wrong either.
It's just different systems, different positions. Web3 exists to fill the gaps between these systems.
Capital markets always have arbitrage opportunities — whether it's information gaps, resource gaps, or regulatory gaps.
Except now with AI developing so fast, a lot of these gaps are closing.
At the end of the day, covering eyes and mouths only works on people who never wanted to see the world anyway.
But honestly? Might not be the worst thing.
Think about it — China voluntarily gave up the world's largest $BTC mining power and exchanges. That's what made America comfortable enough to add bitcoin to national reserves. That's when Wall Street finally felt safe to jump in and take control.
Same story with Hong Kong and US stocks.
Audits, restrictions, taxes — none of that actually stops people who genuinely want to invest. It just pushes more people to discover Web3 and stablecoins.
You can't stop decentralization. Not every financial system has to be built on KYC.
Sure, decentralization carries its own ideology. And yeah, strict regulation isn't inherently wrong either.
It's just different systems, different positions. Web3 exists to fill the gaps between these systems.
Capital markets always have arbitrage opportunities — whether it's information gaps, resource gaps, or regulatory gaps.
Except now with AI developing so fast, a lot of these gaps are closing.
At the end of the day, covering eyes and mouths only works on people who never wanted to see the world anyway.
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