GEMINI
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#Bitcoin is trading at $87.3K after a sharp drop, placing price right at a critical on chain area. The spot price is now well below the STH cost basis at $96.5K, meaning most short-term holders are underwater, which often increases fear and reactive selling. At the same time, price is sitting just under the Active Investors Mean at $87.5K, a level that can decide short term direction.
Holding or reclaiming this zone could help stabilize the market, while failure may invite further downside toward the True Market Mean at $80.7K, a level that has historically acted as strong support during corrections. From a broader perspective, the Realized Price at $56.0K remains far below spot and continues to define long term market value.
Holding or reclaiming this zone could help stabilize the market, while failure may invite further downside toward the True Market Mean at $80.7K, a level that has historically acted as strong support during corrections. From a broader perspective, the Realized Price at $56.0K remains far below spot and continues to define long term market value.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Il PnL netto realizzato è diminuito a un livello non visto dal marzo 2022. Questo indica una diffusione della realizzazione delle perdite nel mercato, riflettendo una forte pressione di vendita e paura degli investitori. Nei cicli precedenti, fasi simili si sono spesso verificate vicino a periodi di reset del mercato, quando il rischio è alto ma le opportunità a lungo termine iniziano a formarsi.
As price pushed higher, ATM implied volatility continued to be sold, indicating that the move was being used as an opportunity to offload risk. Gamma sellers stepped in to harvest premium rather than position for further upside. This divergence between rising price and softening volatility points to controlled, mechanical buying instead of aggressive breakout demand. Historically, this type of volatility response does not align with moves that develop into sustained breakouts.
The Realized Loss by Age metric shows that recent holders are driving the bulk of realized losses, led by the 3-6 month group and followed closely by those holding for 6-12 months. These participants largely represent buyers who entered near recent highs and are now being forced to sell as price moves back toward their cost basis, particularly above the $110K region.
This pattern highlights stress among late stage buyers, where downside pressure is outweighing conviction. Rather than treating the move as a chance to rebuild positions, these holders are prioritizing risk reduction. Their exits add overhead supply near important recovery levels, increasing resistance and making sustained upside extensions more difficult in the near term.
This pattern highlights stress among late stage buyers, where downside pressure is outweighing conviction. Rather than treating the move as a chance to rebuild positions, these holders are prioritizing risk reduction. Their exits add overhead supply near important recovery levels, increasing resistance and making sustained upside extensions more difficult in the near term.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
#Bitcoin is mostrando i primi segnali di pressione ribassista dopo che la redditività on chain è scivolata in territorio negativo per la prima volta dal 2023. Questo sviluppo indica un indebolimento della fiducia degli investitori, poiché più monete vengono detenute in perdita. Gli analisti di mercato evidenziano la zona $80K-$84K come un'area di domanda cruciale per BTC. Come il prezzo reagisce attorno a questo livello potrebbe definire il prossimo grande movimento, stabilizzando il mercato o accelerando il ribasso.
Binance #Bitcoin Leverage Ratio has climbed to its highest point since November, highlighting a renewed appetite for high risk trading across the market. This rise in leverage places Bitcoin in a more fragile position, where even small price swings can trigger large liquidation cascades.
Both rallies and pullbacks carry higher risk under these conditions, as heavily leveraged positions are more likely to be forced out. With volatility increasing, traders should remain alert and prioritize disciplined risk control in the current market structure.
Both rallies and pullbacks carry higher risk under these conditions, as heavily leveraged positions are more likely to be forced out. With volatility increasing, traders should remain alert and prioritize disciplined risk control in the current market structure.
224,248.67 BTC was transferred in a single block, which is nearly $20B worth of #Bitcoin moved at once. Transactions of this size are extremely rare and clearly not retail driven. This kind of activity is usually linked to whale level players such as exchanges reorganizing cold wallets, institutional custody movements or large OTC settlements rather than immediate market selling.
The transfer itself is not the real signal, what matters is whether these funds stay idle or start moving toward exchanges, because that is where market sentiment can shift quickly. For now, it simply confirms that major players are active and positioning quietly.
The transfer itself is not the real signal, what matters is whether these funds stay idle or start moving toward exchanges, because that is where market sentiment can shift quickly. For now, it simply confirms that major players are active and positioning quietly.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Heavy volatility in the crypto market over the last 24 hours led to the liquidation of 117,154 traders, pushing total liquidations to $212.17 million. The largest single liquidation was a #BTCUSD position on Hyperliquid worth $3.56 million ❗️
Tornando all'inizio del 2023, la capitalizzazione di mercato combinata di tutti #altcoins era superiore a #bitcoin . Da allora, Bitcoin ha costantemente preso il sopravvento, portando il divario a un massimo di quasi 1,1 trilioni di dollari entro luglio 2025. Anche oggi, la differenza rimane forte a circa 606 miliardi di dollari a favore di Bitcoin.
Questo cambiamento evidenzia dove sono stati diretti i capitali. Invece di distribuire il rischio su più monete, gli investitori si sono orientati verso Bitcoin come principale investimento. In periodi in cui la fiducia è selettiva, il denaro tende a spostarsi verso l'attività con il miglior track record.
Questo cambiamento evidenzia dove sono stati diretti i capitali. Invece di distribuire il rischio su più monete, gli investitori si sono orientati verso Bitcoin come principale investimento. In periodi in cui la fiducia è selettiva, il denaro tende a spostarsi verso l'attività con il miglior track record.
#Bitcoin has broken below the 0.75 supply cost basis level and continues to trade beneath it, showing weakness in market structure. With price now below the cost basis of around 75 percent of holders, selling pressure is likely to increase as confidence fades. This zone has historically acted as a key support and failure to reclaim it shifts the balance toward risk off conditions. Unless Bitcoin can recover this level soon, downside risk remains the primary scenario.
Recenti dati on-chain e sui derivati evidenziano la crescente pressione su #Bitcoin. I grandi detentori hanno spostato oltre $400 milioni in BTC su exchange spot, spesso un precursore dell'attività di vendita. Nel frattempo, i derivati di Binance mostrano un volume netto di taker negativo, indicando che gli ordini di vendita superano gli ordini di acquisto.
Strong selling pressure defined the last red hourly candle, with sellers exceeding buyers by nearly $293 million. This shift reflects clear bearish control, buyers failed to absorb the selling flow during that period. Continued weakness is likely unless demand returns with strength.
Market stress is building as the supply of #Bitcoin held at a loss reaches 6.7 million BTC on a 7 day moving average, the highest point in this cycle. Since mid-November, this level has stayed within the 6 to 7 million #BTC zone, closely matching behavior seen during transition phases of earlier market cycles.
Prolonged periods with such a large amount of underwater supply tend to amplify frustration among holders. Historically, this environment has often preceded further downside, with capitulation emerging at lower prices once selling pressure intensifies and weaker participants exit the market.
Prolonged periods with such a large amount of underwater supply tend to amplify frustration among holders. Historically, this environment has often preceded further downside, with capitulation emerging at lower prices once selling pressure intensifies and weaker participants exit the market.
Spot market activity still lacks the consistent, high conviction accumulation that typically drives strong trend expansion. However, the recent transition back to net buying across major exchanges is an encouraging structural signal. It points to a gradual rebuilding of demand and suggests that selling pressure is easing, which could support a more constructive market setup if this behavior holds.
The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved from Fear to Extreme Fear 👀
#Bitcoin exchange inflows from whales have fallen sharply, nearly threefold compared to late November. This decline shows that large holders are no longer pushing strong selling pressure, choosing instead to hold during the ongoing consolidation. Such behavior typically supports price stability and can create favorable conditions for the next directional move once market confidence strengthens.
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