BigWhale Trading

🚨 EVERY CYCLE ENDS THE SAME — ONLY THE EXCUSES CHANGE

People keep telling themselves “this time is different.”
It never is.
Yes, crypto can bounce from here.
And sure — a bounce would feel great for sentiment.
But even if it happens, it’s most likely just a macro lower high.
I don’t try to time those bounces anymore.
I’ve tried in the past. Sometimes it worked.
Other times, I got completely rekt.

The structure repeats every cycle:
When BTC breaks below the 50-week moving average,
it moves to the 100-week, spends some time there,
and eventually finds the 200-week moving average.
Every cycle.
Bitcoin topped where it almost always tops — Q4 of the post-halving year.
And since then, people have spent endless hours trying to convince you that it didn’t.
BTC entered a bear market.
And right on cue, the narrative machine turned on.
“Alt season is next.”
“It always happens after BTC tops.”

What those narratives ignore is social interest.
After the 2019 top, there was no real rotation into altcoins either — and that was right before QT ended.
I track social interest in crypto closely.
It’s been trending down since 2021.
There is no wave of new participants entering the market.
No fresh demand for people to sell their altcoins into.
Historically, alt seasons don’t start when interest is falling.
They start after social interest has been rising for a full year.
Not after five years of decline.

So have a real plan for navigating this market.
Because if the altcoins you’re holding drop another 50–80%,
not a single influencer who promoted them will feel any responsibility.
No apologies.
No regret.
You’ll just be left holding the consequences.
I get a lot of hate for saying this.
But an inconvenient truth is still better than a comfortable lie.

🚨 ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH ACROSS MARKETS — AND NOTHING “BAD” EVEN HAPPENED

Look at what got erased in just 24 hours:
Gold dropped 5.5% — $1.94 trillion gone.
Silver collapsed 19% — $980 billion erased.
S&P 500 fell 0.95% — $580 billion wiped out.
Nasdaq slid 2.5% — nearly $1 trillion gone.
Russell 2000 lost 2% — $65 billion erased.
Bitcoin dumped 8% — $120 billion gone.
Total crypto market down 7% — $184 billion wiped out.
That’s almost $5 trillion erased.

No major headline.
No black swan.
No “unexpected” shock.
Just selling.
That’s the part people should be paying attention to.
When markets lose this much value without bad news,
it’s not about news anymore.

It’s about liquidity, positioning, and stress under the surface.
This isn’t panic yet.
But it’s not healthy either.
Moves like this don’t come out of nowhere.

🚨 THE LAST TIME THIS SETUP APPEARED WAS 2018 — AND BEFORE THAT, 2011

Four consecutive red monthly candles.
October. November. December. January.
All negative.
I went through Bitcoin’s monthly returns going back to 2011.
15 years of data.

In Bitcoin’s entire history, there have been only two periods with five losing months in a row:
→ 2011: July to November → followed by a +55% rally in December
→ 2018: August to December → followed by the final bottom at $3,200
Right now, we’re sitting at four.
And February isn’t over yet.
Even in 2022 — with Luna, 3AC, and FTX collapsing in rapid succession — Bitcoin never printed more than three red months in a row.

What we’re seeing now is rare.
Extremely rare.
The entire timeline is calling for a bear market.
Cycle theory says it’s confirmed.
Some are calling October 2026 as the bottom.
CryptoQuant shows 44% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently at a loss.
Four months of blood.
And this is exactly where the most experienced players start accumulating.

If February closes red, we enter territory that has existed only twice in 15 years.
In 2011, it led to a rally.
In 2018, it led to the final flush.
My level remains clear: $74K–$75K.
Above it, I observe.
Below it, the structure breaks.
February decides.
And I’ll show you what comes next.

🚨 ALTCOIN SEASON IS STARTING QUIETLY

This is the phase most people miss.
Bitcoin isn’t breaking down.
It’s holding ground.
Dominance is stalling.
Risk appetite is shifting.
And quietly, capital is starting to move out of BTC in search of higher returns.
This is not the parabolic phase.

No headlines.
No hype.

This is the positioning phase.
Altcoin season never begins when timelines scream “ALT SEASON.”
It begins when most people are still unsure if it even exists.
Strong alts start moving first.
Liquidity rotates.
Narratives come later.
By the time it feels obvious,
the easy part is already gone.

Those who understand cycles are preparing now.
Those waiting for confirmation usually arrive late.
This is how every altcoin season starts.

🚨 HE JUST DEPLOYED $20,000,000 — AND IT’S NOT WHERE YOU THINK

One of the most consistently accurate analysts in the market, NO LIMIT, just revealed where he’s putting $20 MILLION of his own capital.
Not a watchlist.
Not a theory.
Not a “could be interesting” idea.
Real money. Real conviction.
If that name rings a bell, it should.

He’s the same guy who was openly begging people to buy Nvidia at $3 — back when it sounded ridiculous and nobody took it seriously.
Most laughed.
Most ignored it.
Then the market did what it always does.
Now he’s making another move.
Quietly.
Early.
With size.
I’m not telling you what to buy.
I’m just telling you what smart money is actually doing, not talking about.

These moments don’t come often.
And they’re usually obvious only in hindsight.
Save this.
Screenshot it.
Just don’t say nobody told you.

🚨 UNA GRANDE TEMPESTA STA ARRIVANDO — E LA MAGGIOR PARTE DELLE PERSONE STA DORMENDO

Questo non è un clickbait.
Qualcosa si sta rompendo sotto la superficie.
La Fed è appena intervenuta con liquidità di emergenza.
Non perché le cose siano forti — ma perché il finanziamento si è ristretto.
Questo è il campanello d'allarme.
Il debito è ai livelli record.
I costi degli interessi stanno esplodendo.

La fiducia negli attivi "senza rischio" comincia a incrinarsi.
Quando i Treasury hanno bisogno di supporto, il sistema è già sotto pressione.
Questo non è solo l'U.S. neanche.
La Cina sta iniettando liquidità massiccia allo stesso tempo.
Paesi diversi.
Stesso problema.
Troppo debito.
Troppa poca fiducia.
I mercati leggono sempre male questa fase.
Pensano che la liquidità sia rialzista.
Non lo è.

Questo riguarda il mantenimento del finanziamento in vita.
E quando il finanziamento si rompe, tutto il resto segue.
Le obbligazioni si muovono per prime.
Le azioni reagiscono in ritardo.
Le criptovalute vengono colpite più duramente.
Oro e argento ai massimi storici non sono una coincidenza.
Questo è capitale che lascia promesse cartacee.
Ho studiato macroeconomia per 10 anni e ho previsto la maggior parte dei massimi importanti, incluso l'ATH di BTC di ottobre.
Questo setup sembra familiare.
Segui e attiva le notifiche.
Pubblicherò l'avviso prima che colpisca i titoli.

Wow, honestly didn’t expect this huge thanks to @Binance Square Official and the Binance Square team for the shoutout and the 1 BNB surprise.

It truly means a lot to me. This kind of support is a big motivation and pushes me to keep showing up, creating better and more valuable content every day.

Really appreciate the love let’s keep building and growing together.

🚨 ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL MACRO INDICATORS JUST FIRED — AND ALMOST NO ONE NOTICED

There is one signal that has front-run every major Bitcoin move for the last 15 years.
Yesterday, it flipped.
For the first time in 4 years, it turned back into EXPANSION.
Not the halving.
Not M2.
Not ETF flows.
This one has a near-perfect hit rate.

📊 ISM: 52.6 vs 48.5 expected
Highest print since 2022.
Let that sink in.

Here’s why this matters 👇
In every past cycle:
• ISM breaks above 50
→ Credit expands
→ Liquidity follows
→ Bitcoin moves last, but with leverage
That sequence has never changed.
And after a 4-year downtrend, the data just reversed.
Now, be clear:
Does this guarantee a bull market?
No.
Could this be a tariff-driven fakeout?
Yes.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth:
This is the strongest macro signal we’ve seen in over a year.
And historically, when it fires, markets don’t wait for confirmation — they reprice violently.
By the time it’s obvious, positioning is already done.
I break down:
– Why this signal matters
– Where it can fail
– How I’m positioning before the crowd reacts
Full breakdown in my new video.
This isn’t noise.
This is a regime shift warning.

BITCOIN ALREADY MADE ITS MOVE — MOST PEOPLE JUST MISSED IT

Bitcoin has just completed a Wyckoff accumulation spring.
This isn’t a prediction.
It’s the market showing its hand.
The spring already happened.
Stops were swept.

Weak hands got shaken out quietly, right in front of everyone.
Now comes the test and after that, the markup phase begins.

This is the highest-confidence part of the structure:
– The downside has already been proven false
– Supply has been absorbed
– Risk is clear and defined
Wyckoff springs don’t signal tops.
They start trends.

If you’re still bearish here, you’re not “early.”
You’re simply out of sync with the market.
The upside doesn’t wait for consensus.
It doesn’t need permission.
When it’s ready it just moves.

🚨 AVVISO FINALE — QUI È DOVE IL GIOCO CAMBIA

Prima, ignorarono gli avvisi su Bitcoin.
La gente rideva.

Poi i portafogli — e i mezzi di sussistenza — furono spazzati via.
Secondo, ignorarono i metalli preziosi.
L'opportunità di una vita passò silenziosamente…
e solo col senno di poi la gente si rese conto di cosa si era persa.
Terzo, ignorarono gli avvisi su oro e argento che andavano in parabola.
Tutti lo chiamarono “sano.”

Fino a quando le vendite forzate distrussero più conti.
E ora arriva l'avviso più importante di tutti.
Il Nasdaq sta tracciando il famigerato — e bellissimo — modello di allargamento (megafono).
Questa non è una struttura rialzista.
È una struttura di perdita di controllo.
Ecco le linee che contano:
23k → prima linea di difesa
22k → ultima linea di difesa

Una volta che 22k rompe, il confine inferiore del modello si attiva.
E quando accade?
La volatilità esplode.
La liquidità scompare.
I mercati ordinati diventano caotici.
Questa è la fase in cui la fiducia crolla rapidamente —
non lentamente, non educatamente.
È tutto divertimento e giochi…
fino a quando il modello non si completa.

Fino a quando gli avvisi non sembrano ovvi dopo che il danno è fatto.
Dì quello che vuoi.
Deridilo. Ignoralo. Scorri oltre.
Ma ricorda questo momento.
Perché ancora una volta,
IL GRANDE MARTIS potrebbe avere ragione.
Dio benedica.
E Dio ti protegga.

🚨 ALT SEASON 2026 WILL NOT BE “NORMAL” — IT WILL HUMILIATE LATECOMERS

Here’s the signal almost nobody is taking seriously:

PMI just flipped bullish.
That’s not a crypto indicator.
That’s a business cycle indicator.
And it’s the quiet switch that tells you the engine is turning back on.
Institute for Supply Management PMI flipping up means:
Growth is re-accelerating
Liquidity conditions start to loosen
Risk appetite slowly comes back
This is exactly what unlocked real alt seasons in the past.
Now zoom out.
Altcoins have been compressing for over 4 years.
No hype
No capital rotation
Total boredom
Total disbelief
Sound familiar?
It should.
Last cycle:
~650 days after the halving
Alt market cap ran +4,600%
Almost nobody was positioned early
People didn’t miss it because they were dumb.
They missed it because it felt dead right before it exploded.
And that’s where we are again.
What comes next is not gradual.

Markets don’t reward patience with slow moves.
They do this:
Compression → violent expansion
Boredom → mania
Disbelief → regret
If 2021 shocked people…
2026 is going to embarrass them.
Not because alts are “better.”
Not because narratives are stronger.

But because cycles don’t care about your feelings —
they care about liquidity timing.
Most people will wait for confirmation.
By then, price will already be vertical.
Alt season never starts when it feels safe.
It starts when it feels stupid to believe.
And that’s exactly where we are now.

🚨 NOTIZIE DALLA BOLLETTA — Ecco cosa ha realmente scosso il mercato

Diamo un ritmo più lento e parliamo come esseri umani.
In circa un'ora, un'enorme quantità di BTC è arrivata sul mercato:
Binance: ~5,796 BTC
Crypto.com: ~4,305 BTC
Wintermute: ~3,786 BTC
Kraken: ~3,491 BTC
Coinbase: ~5,798 BTC

Questo è all'incirca 23,000 BTC che appaiono sul lato delle vendite in una finestra di tempo molto breve.
Il prezzo non è “crollato” “randomicamente” a ~$76,400.
Ha reagito.
Ora, ecco la parte importante — senza il dramma:
È stata questa una “panico al dettaglio”?
No.

Il retail non si muove in questo modo.
Il retail non vende così tanto, così in fretta, attraverso più piattaforme.
Quello che sembra è che grandi e informati operatori stiano riducendo il rischio nello stesso momento.
Chiamalo coordinamento.
Chiamalo rischio ridotto.
Chiamalo tutti che vedono la stessa cosa e agiscono insieme.

Ma questo è come iniziano i veri crolli:
Pesante vendita spot
Liquidità sottile
I stop vengono colpiti
Le liquidazioni si attivano
Poi il prezzo accelera verso il basso
Una volta che quella catena inizia, si auto-alimenta.
Questo non significa che “la crypto è morta.”
Significa che qualcuno di importante voleva uscire — ora.
E quando i grandi soldi si muovono per primi, il prezzo si aggiusta violentemente per trovare il prossimo livello dove gli acquirenti sono disposti ad intervenire.
L'insegnamento non è panico.

L'insegnamento è questo:
👉 Guarda chi sta vendendo, non solo la candela.
👉 Vendite rapide come questa di solito riguardano il posizionamento, non la paura.
Rimani calmo.
Non fare trading di vendetta.
E non lasciare che un'unica ora di vendite forzate ti trasformi in liquidità di uscita.
Questo mercato premia le persone che possono fermarsi e pensare quando tutti gli altri reagiscono.

🚨 BREAKING — BUT LET’S BE REAL FOR A MOMENT

Federal Reserve is injecting $8.3B into the market tomorrow around 9:00 AM ET.

I know what people want to hear:
“QE is back.”
“Money printer on.”
“Bull market saved.”
But take a breath.
This isn’t some bold pivot or grand restart of QE.
This looks like basic plumbing work — short-term liquidity to keep things from jamming up.
Here’s the human version of what’s happening:
Something in the system is uncomfortable.
Funding is tight.

Someone somewhere doesn’t want to hold risk overnight.
When the Fed does this, it’s usually not because everything is fine.
It’s because they’re trying to prevent something from snapping.
Yes, it can help markets temporarily.
Yes, prices might bounce.
But no — this is not a green light that “everything’s bullish again.”
Real QE is loud and obvious:
Balance sheet expansion
Sustained support
Clear policy shift
This is quieter.

More like: “Let’s stabilize things so we can make it to tomorrow.”
Late in cycles, these injections often show up before volatility, not after it’s gone.
So don’t switch your brain off because of one headline.
Watch how markets react after the cash hits.
That reaction will tell you whether this is relief…
or just another patch on a stressed system.
Stay grounded.
This is a thinking market, not a cheering one.

ISM Manufacturing PMI just flipped and most people are still staring at the wrong model.

Institute for Supply Management PMI:
Jan: 52.6% — Expansion 💥
Dec: 47.9% — Contraction
Nov: 48.2% — Contraction
Oct: 48.7% — Contraction
This is not noise.
This is a regime shift.

If you’re still viewing Bitcoin through the 4-year halving fairy tale, you’re already late.
That model worked when liquidity was simple and cycles were clean.
This market isn’t.
Bitcoin doesn’t move on halving memes anymore it moves with liquidity, growth, and the business cycle.

PMI back above 50 means:
Manufacturing turning back on
Credit conditions slowly thawing
Risk appetite preparing to expand
That’s how the second leg of a real bull market forms — not at the halving, but after growth re-accelerates.
Most people will wait for confirmation.
By then, the move will already be violent.

Upgrade your framework now:
from halving myths → macro + business cycle reality.
Miss that shift, and you won’t just mistime Bitcoin you’ll miss the entire next expansion leg.