For-Exx Kripto 1

Even when $LUNC was above 10,000, I consistently drew attention to the 8,200 level. Currently, it's experiencing a battle between buyers and sellers at that level. There hasn't been a daily close above 10,000 for three days, and the selling pressure has intensified. Now it's trying to hold at 8,200. If it closes below 8,200 on the daily chart, it could fall to 5,045. If it holds, it will go back to the 10,000 level. Today's and tomorrow's movements and the show of strength between buyers and sellers are important.

Interestingly, $BTC has always experienced significant drops in the past following changes in Federal Reserve chairmen. These declines are not being triggered solely by the change in the Fed chairman; other factors have also played a role each time (2014: prolonged bear market, 2018: ICO bubble burst + interest rate hike, 2022: FTX crash + aggressive interest rate hikes). However, it's a historical fact that Bitcoin experiences a serious correction of 60-86% with each new chairperson's transition. The average drop has been around 70-80%. This time, the inflation problem and the possibility of interest rate hikes have emerged. Is history merely repeating itself, or does it rhyme?

Although $LUNC appears weaker than in previous days, there's no problem as long as it holds above 8200. The 8200 level is the dividing line between positivity and negativity; above it is positive, below it is negative.

May 12, 2022. Four years since the day crypto history called "the collapse."

LUNA had climbed from 1$ to $119,top-eight by market cap. At Terra's core sat an algorithmic stablecoin,UST — not backed by dollars or treasuries,but balanced against its sister token,LUNA ( $LUNC ). The promise: 1 UST = 1$, kept there by arbitrage.

The one fragility was trust. Anchor Protocol paid 20% yield on UST and absorbed three quarters of supply. The yield wasn't earned but subsidized — marketing dressed as DeFi. Do Kwon mocked critics as"the poor."

On May 7, the color changed. UST sales flooded the Curve pool; billions flowed out of Anchor in hours. UST broke below 1$. Small at first, but the mechanism amplified panic: holders burned UST, LUNA was minted,supply hit the market, prices fell, backing eroded. The cycle had a name — the death spiral. By May 9,UST was at 35 cents. On May 10, the Luna Foundation Guard dumped its 80,000+ Bitcoin reserve to defend the peg; billions sold overnight,the peg held at 80 cents briefly,then broke again.

May 12 was the final act: the Terra blockchain halted twice in one day. LUNA's supply ballooned to trillions in hours;the price disappeared into decimals — down to $0.000017. $45 billion evaporated in a week.

The real damage wasn't on the charts. Stories of lost savings,pensions,tuition flooded social media. In South Korea,losses reached parliament; reporters at Do Kwon's Seoul home found a weeping woman at the gate. r/terraluna became a hotline.

Terra restarted on May 28; the old chain became Terra Classic,the old coin LUNC. A new LUNA was airdropped,but most losses never came back. Do Kwon vanished, surfaced in Montenegro with a fake Costa Rican passport,and was arrested.

Trillions of LUNC still sit in wallets. Some hold to forget, some wait for a miracle. But May 12 isn't just a date — it's the day crypto learned, in its bones, the limits of algorithmic trust and how much emptiness can hide beneath a promise of "high yield."

$XRP ha toccato di nuovo la linea superiore della fascia orizzontale ed è attualmente a 1.4635, il che fa pensare che potrebbe essere una grande opportunità per andare short con uno stop loss a 1.61.

Here's Binance's May 12th $LUNC surprise: CZ writing #Lunc on his profile!!!

Of course, the image isn't real, but I think nobody would say no if it were.

I told you days ago that nothing would happen on May 12th; the date May 12th is just another one of the usual lies from those deceitful, manipulative influencers trying to grab your attention. Don't believe their cheap tricks anymore; I think sensible people have learned this many times over the past four years, because they've done the same thing hundreds of times.

$LUNC managed to climb back above the 10000 level, and although it's facing downward pressure, buyers are somehow managing to push it above 10000, which is leading to positive sentiment. If it closes above 10000 today, it will have closed above this important resistance level for two consecutive days.

Ripple ( $XRP ) sits at an interesting juncture: the legal cloud has cleared,the SEC case is closed,and spot XRP ETFs launched in November 2025 with over a billion dollars in inflows. Yet price stays well below 2025 highs,stuck in a narrow band. Institutions buy while retail sells — and the question is why demand isn't translating into price. Where the pressure comes from Ripple's monthly escrow unlocks keep adding fresh supply,and even with partial re-locking the net is non-trivial. On-chain data shows network usage declining for years — new addresses and active users are cooling. RLUSD has failed to gain traction against USDT and USDC,weakening the payment-rail demand thesis. The macro backdrop is hostile: the Fed's hawkish stance and tighter liquidity compress the entire risk curve. ETF inflows have also slowed from launch pace. What a rally needs The structural story is intact;it waits for a trigger. Key catalysts: sustained ETF inflows, U.S. market-structure legislation, RLUSD integration with banking rails in Asia,real growth in Ripple's ODL volume,and exchange balances staying low. Add a macro shift — the Fed pivoting to clear cuts, dollar liquidity expanding — and a breakout becomes more probable. Longer term, the post-2028 $BTC halving cycle and Ripple's U.S. banking license are the next-tier references. Expectations Standard Chartered has trimmed its aggressive target;desks like Bitrue sit more conservative; bears argue lower on declining network use. The base case for 2026–2027 is a gradual step up from the current band,but a parabolic move requires the full catalyst chain to align. Bottom line XRP's narrative has evolved from"legally troubled token"to "institutional infrastructure asset." For markets to price that in, two things are needed: hard evidence of real-world usage growth,and a macro backdrop supporting risk appetite. With both,a rally isn't a surprise. Without either, price stays where institutional buying just offsets retail selling.

US CPI Preview — May 12, 12:30 (UTC +0) Consensus: Headline +0.6–0.7% m/m, 3.7–3.8% y/y (March: 0.9%/3.3%). Core +0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y. One-off shelter/OER adjustment from the fall shutdown adds noise. Post-ceasefire Brent drop (118→92) mostly shows up in May data, not April. BofA sees no Fed cuts in 2026; market already hawkish. Hot print (headline 3.8%+ or core 2.8%+) Backdrop: DXY sharply up, 10Y yields up, equities down, small caps hit hardest. Gold: classic reflex is down on stronger dollar and higher real rates, but inflation-hedge demand provides a floor — early drop, late-session recovery is the common pattern. Bitcoin: down. Risk-off plus tighter-liquidity narrative is a bad mix for crypto; altcoins sold harder. Core at 2.9%+ sets up a 5–8% $BTC selloff window. In-line print (3.7% / 2.7%) Base case. Composition matters more than the headline — super-core, organic shelter trend, tariff pass-through into goods are the focus. Gold: rangebound, but the 2026 uptrend keeps dip buyers active. Bitcoin: muted reaction; crypto-specific catalysts (ETF flows, regulation) take over. Cool print (headline below 3.5% or core 2.5%) Backdrop: DXY down, yields drop sharply, strong equity rally led by growth and small caps. Goldilocks narrative back. Gold: best setup of the three — falling real rates + weak dollar + Fed easing hopes is the perfect trio. Bitcoin: one of the year's strongest reactions possible. BTC's macro-liquidity sensitivity is sharp in 2026; core at 2.5% or below is enough for 4–7% upside near-term. Altcoins outperform via beta. Watch list: super-core (Fed's favorite), shelter (one-off adjustment), core goods (tariff trace), airfares (secondary energy effect). Positioning: asymmetry tilts toward a cool surprise. Consensus is already very hawkish, so a soft print sparks a larger relief rally. Best mix for BTC and gold: cool data + ceasefire holding.

I have repeatedly written that I have been bearish on $FLOKI since the beginning of January, starting from the 5535 level, with the main target being 1603. Since then, it has fallen by 53% and found support at its lowest level of 2613. However, the chart shows that positive signals have started to appear in FLOKI. If it breaks above 4031, it could rise to the 6100 levels where it started to decline. Let's see if it reaches 4031 first, no rush...

$XRP has been stuck in the range I previously marked with a turquoise dashed line, between 1.28 and 1.52, for the past four months. These two levels work well for those shorting or longing, in both directions.

$BTC bounced above the support line I previously marked at 79150, and is currently trading sideways. The US CPI (inflation) data is due on Tuesday, and the markets may remain relatively flat until then, assuming there are no developments on the Iranian side.

$USTC keeps touching the trend support I drew in pink and bouncing upwards, it has worked so far. $LUNC also seems to have overcome its intraday weakness a bit, I pay more attention to its weekday movements because the volume decreased over the weekend.

The $LUNC coin has risen approximately 175% since April 24th and has also experienced a correction of about 30% from its peak, which is a healthy increase. As long as it stays above 8200, I predict it will erase the zero again and rise above 10000, but if 8200 is broken, the whole scenario will be ruined. It's normal for it to be trading sideways because it's the weekend. The chart still looks positive; there's no reason to think negatively.

US Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC – April NFP data Forecast: 65K (previous 178K) | Unemployment: 4.3% | Wages: +0.3% MoM Scenarios: 🟢 60–95K → Goldilocks. $BTC , gold and equities up, DXY weak, September cut stays on the table 🔴 Above 130K → Hawkish shock. Strong dollar, pressure on crypto-gold, cut expectations pushed to 2027 🟡 Below 40K/negative → First reaction is dollar weakness, crypto-gold bid. If too weak, equities turn into recession sell-off ⚫ Low NFP + high wages → Stagflation. All risk assets under pressure, only gold decouples After March's 178K shock beat, the market is pricing in some payback; positioning is tilted dovish. That makes an upside surprise an asymmetric risk. The real focus isn't the headline — it's revisions + average hourly earnings. #nfp

US Tomorrow at 12:30 UTC – April NFP data Forecast: 65K (previous 178K) | Unemployment: 4.3% | Wages: +0.3% MoM Scenarios: - 60–95K → Goldilocks. $BTC , gold and equities up, DXY weak, September cut stays on the table - Above 130K → Hawkish shock. Strong dollar, pressure on crypto-gold, cut expectations pushed to 2027 - Below 40K/negative → First reaction is dollar weakness, crypto-gold bid. If too weak, equities turn into recession sell-off - Low NFP + high wages → Stagflation. All risk assets under pressure, only gold decouples After March's 178K shock beat, the market is pricing in some payback; positioning is tilted dovish. That makes an upside surprise an asymmetric risk. The real focus isn't the headline — it's revisions + average hourly earnings.

I pointed out earlier today that there was a trend and resistance intersection at the 10,000 point for $LUNC ; it hit there, and sellers suppressed buyers. Pay attention to the orange line; LUNC keeps hitting its head and going down. It needs to get out from under that trend line pressure. Drops to the 8,200 level can be considered normal, but if it breaks that point, problems will begin. Right now, there's no problem because it's above that level.

Let me explain what the 10,000 level means for $LUNC today. We are currently at the point of both a mini downtrend and the zero-wipe threshold. If it breaks above the orange downtrend and surpasses that point, it could test the 12,200 peak again. Let's see how strong the buyers are?

$LUNC extended its correction a bit, but I think it's on the verge of recovering. If it closes above 10,000 at the end of the day, this will be perceived as positive because even though the correction size is long, it indicates that buyers are coming in and signals a recovery. We are watching.

My $BTC short positions are still open. I added one more short at the 82,000 level to increase my cost basis. Now I'm watching from the sidelines until I reach my initial expectation of the 65,000 level, and then maybe 57,039?