$MVLL One-day drop of 12.8%, the quote is 41.66, yet the funding rate is still holding at a positive 0.0025. As the price moves downward, the longs are still paying to hold up the position—this is the most uncomfortable structure of the day.
I scrolled around on X and saw the two sides are deeply divided. One camp believes the positive funding rate is retail traders catching the dip to add more, a typical “buy the dip, keep getting more” pattern. As long as the price hasn’t stabilized, this funding cost keeps grinding away. The other camp, however, thinks the longs haven’t been fully flushed out, which implies there are buyers absorbing the selling. The deeper the drop, the greater the upside potential for a subsequent short squeeze.
I’m with the first view. With an intraday decline close to 13% and the rate still positive, it indicates the dominant side isn’t the shorts—it’s the longs stubbornly holding. What this structure fears isn’t a slow bleed; it’s a sudden acceleration lower that triggers a chain of long liquidations and causes OI to collapse quickly. Current OI is over 28,000—nothing light. Once a panic hits, it could turn into a “kill more while killing” script.
So the near-term action is clear: don’t catch the急跌 (the sudden drop) while the funding rate is positive. Wait until price pushes down a bit more, or until the funding rate turns negative, then reassess. If later you see a negative funding rate combined with an even deeper drawdown, an excessively crowded short side will actually provide a cleaner short-term bottom signal. Until then, watch more and act less.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MVLL
Do the KOL’s views align with your judgment?
I scrolled around on X and saw the two sides are deeply divided. One camp believes the positive funding rate is retail traders catching the dip to add more, a typical “buy the dip, keep getting more” pattern. As long as the price hasn’t stabilized, this funding cost keeps grinding away. The other camp, however, thinks the longs haven’t been fully flushed out, which implies there are buyers absorbing the selling. The deeper the drop, the greater the upside potential for a subsequent short squeeze.
I’m with the first view. With an intraday decline close to 13% and the rate still positive, it indicates the dominant side isn’t the shorts—it’s the longs stubbornly holding. What this structure fears isn’t a slow bleed; it’s a sudden acceleration lower that triggers a chain of long liquidations and causes OI to collapse quickly. Current OI is over 28,000—nothing light. Once a panic hits, it could turn into a “kill more while killing” script.
So the near-term action is clear: don’t catch the急跌 (the sudden drop) while the funding rate is positive. Wait until price pushes down a bit more, or until the funding rate turns negative, then reassess. If later you see a negative funding rate combined with an even deeper drawdown, an excessively crowded short side will actually provide a cleaner short-term bottom signal. Until then, watch more and act less.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MVLL
Do the KOL’s views align with your judgment?