October 7, 2023 Grandpa checks in
Today is the first day after a long holiday. I don’t know if you have holiday syndrome. There are still 6 days in the next week. Be prepared. The recent high-profile case is the opening of the FTX case. It has been more than 9 months since SBF was arrested at home. It is no exaggeration to say that the direction of this case has a significant connection with the entire crypto industry. According to various witness testimonies, SBF was aware of the problem and knowingly committed the crime during various operations, and the defense lawyer’s purpose was just to get a lighter punishment.
One important reason why the direction of this case deserves attention is to see to what extent the American judicial system can protect crypto assets. Even if there is no perfect legal supervision at present, this major case can also show how the Americans protect personal crypto assets. On the other hand, I always think that the biggest sequelae of the FTX case is that OTC funds no longer trust exchanges. After all, such a large-scale misappropriation of funds occurred on a trading platform that was once ranked high, and I dare not put my life and property in the hands of other exchanges. Therefore, the direction and result of the case play a crucial role in whether subsequent funds will enter the market, which is also the most important prerequisite for the bull market.
In terms of the market, the daily level of volatility has taken a small step up, and has been in the small range of 27,000-28,000 for a week, so there has been a small level of volatility and rise, which is a small signal. However, in the short term, the 28,000 position is still under great pressure. In addition to the previous high not being broken, this price is also suppressed by the 200-day moving average and the 120-day moving average, and it is not easy to break through. In the long term, the 25,000 hit in the past few weeks is also the low point of the June retracement. If this wave of rebound can break through, the support strength of 25,000 will be greatly improved, which is very important for next year's market.
Macro-economically, the US stock market rebounded after receiving daily support, which is a good signal. If it can continue to rise, it is expected that the bitcoin price will break through 28,000. On the contrary, if the expectations of the interest rate meeting and the market become more cautious, the bitcoin price will follow the decline. Overall, we have already bought part of the bottom at this position. Next, we can wait for the next change to happen, and we can also continue to trade in waves. There is really not much else we can do.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
