The Cryptonomist

KIRIMAN BERSPONSOR
“Anonim” bekerja terlalu keras dalam pemasaran perjudian kripto tahun ini tanpa dasar yang layak.
Taruhan berbasis dompet benar-benar menghilangkan dokumen identitas tradisional yang biasanya memperlambat pembuatan akun di tempat lain, dan itu adalah perubahan yang nyata serta bermakna. Namun kata “anonimitas” menyiratkan sesuatu yang lebih dekat dengan ketertutupan atau ketidak-terlihatan, padahal yang sebenarnya terjadi di on-chain tidak seperti itu. Celah antara bahasa pemasaran dan kenyataan teknis di situlah para pemain kerap terjebak.
ALT: Tumpukan bitcoin emas dan perak

A curated, invite-only Demo Day narrowing 200+ applicants down to 15+, judged by a panel spanning SC Ventures, TBV, Ape Ventures, and Yellow. Founders compete for a prize pool of over $100,000 and meet institutional investors directly on August 19.
BALI, INDONESIA. [ Release Date ]. Luvon Labs and SpedaxAI have announced Pitch Fest Bali 2026, an invite-only Web3 Demo Day taking place on August 19, running alongside CoinFest Asia. From more than 200 applications, the event has narrowed the field to a curated cohort of 15+ standout teams, who will pitch live to a panel of leading venture investors, competing for a prize pool of more than $100,000.
The thinking behind Pitch Fest Bali is straightforward. Instead of competing for attention on a crowded conference floor, the event creates a focused, high-quality room where pre-TGE and growth-stage founders can meet the investors, exchanges, and ecosystem partners who can help them move faster.
A Room Built for Deal Flow
Pitch Fest Bali brings together three groups that rarely share a room by design: mature, near-launch founders, institutional capital, and the infrastructure partners powering the next cycle.
The curated cohort will pitch to a judging panel that includes Alex Toh (Lead, Funds Management at SC Ventures – Standard Chartered), Tobias Bauer (Co-Founder and General Partner at TBV), Darknight (Founder of Ape Ventures), and Alexis Sirkia (Co-Founder of Yellow).
Further venture participation confirmed for the event includes Trive Digital, CoinSwitch Ventures, and Spores Network, with more names to be announced.
Confirmed sponsors so far include Golden Grid, ObsessionDB, and Kenomic (credit partner). They are joined by a network of more than 50 media and community partners amplifying the event across the region and beyond.
Why It Matters for Partners
For sponsors and investors, the value is direct: early access to a vetted pipeline of pre-TGE, revenue-generating founders, before they pick an exchange or lead investor. Backed by 50+ media and community partners, the goal is simple, qualified deal flow and real visibility with the audience that matters.
Bali is also the first in a planned series of curated demo days across major global crypto hubs, with editions targeted for Singapore, Mumbai, and London. Partners who come in early get a head start on a platform built to grow across several markets.
Partnership Opportunities Are Open
Sponsors and partners are still being onboarded ahead of August 19. Luvon Labs and SpedaxAI are inviting exchanges, funds, infrastructure providers, and ecosystem partners to explore tailored collaborations, from ecosystem partnerships to custom activations shaped around each partner’s own goals.
“We wanted to build something focused,” a spokesperson for the organizers said. “Serious founders and serious investors in one room, with a clear return for every partner who takes part. Bali is only the start, and the partners joining us now are getting in early.”
Get Involved
RSVP and Attend (Luma): https://luma.com/pitch-fest-Bali2026
Apply to Pitch: https://forms.gle/tJBPiqEk5zuj8zbn8
Join the Community (Telegram): https://t.me/+fSoIDlp2NVwwZjRl
About Luvon Labs
Luvon Labs is a full-stack venture partner for Web3 founders, working end-to-end from build to raise. The studio ships the entire stack, brand and UX, smart contracts in Solidity and Rust, AI agents, mobile apps, and the infrastructure that keeps products live and scaling, then stays in the room through go-to-market and fundraising strategy, backed by a global investor network built over years in the ecosystem. To date, Luvon Labs has shipped 50+ products for 30+ clients across 15+ countries. Guided by its philosophy, Build With Intent, Luvon treats every team it works with as a long-term relationship, not a one-off engagement. More at luvonlabs.com
About SpedaxAI
SpedaxAI is a full-stack, no-code AI studio that lets anyone build, deploy, and monetize autonomous AI agents in under 90 seconds. Backed by enterprise models and a secure decentralized database, the platform guarantees complete data privacy and true ownership. The ecosystem delivers four core products to make advanced AI accessible. Businesses can instantly deploy custom website agents using a simple embed code. Consumers gain a voice-activated Chrome extension that reads real-time screen context to execute tailored tasks. Developers can build scalable applications using robust SpedaxAI APIs. Finally, a one-click Web3 automation suite with a built-in digital wallet lets non-technical users bypass complex coding to instantly launch agents for automated trading and market research. Whether minting agents as digital assets or automating complex workflows, SpedaxAI is the complete infrastructure for the modern agentic economy. More at spedaxai.com.
About Golden Grid
Golden Grid is an on-chain pixel lottery where players claim a block on a living grid with original pixel art or a logo, connect their wallet, and take a shot at crypto, NFTs, and rewards from a prize pool that grows as more players join. Built around the lore of Ratoshi and the Syndicate, the platform runs on one rule: luck must circulate. More at goldengrid.xyz.
About ObsessionDB
ObsessionDB is fully managed ClickHouse, the same engine, queries, and tools teams already know, without any infrastructure to run themselves. Built for workloads that break other databases, billions of rows, real-time dashboards, and customer-facing analytics, it delivers sub-second queries at any scale with automatic scaling and no clusters to manage. More at obsessiondb.com.
About Kenomic
Kenomic is an AI-powered platform built for the entire token lifecycle, guiding founders through design, validation, launch, and post-launch management in one place. Its conversational AI agent, Keni, turns a plain project description into a launch-ready tokenomics model, backed by a digital-twin simulation engine that stress-tests the design across millions of market scenarios and a Kenomic Score that measures resilience before launch. Kenomic then deploys audit-grade smart contracts across 9 chains and keeps managing vesting, staking, airdrops, and treasury long after launch day. More at kenomic.ai.
About BrandPR
BrandPR is a specialized PR and marketing agency partnering with LuvonLabs to empower AI and Web3 brands worldwide. Since 2022, we have helped crypto, blockchain, and artificial intelligence clients gain exposure through top-tier media coverage and strategic community-building. From crypto launches and DeFi platforms to cutting-edge AI startups, BrandPR delivers tailored campaigns designed to amplify your brand and build a lasting legacy at the intersection of AI and Web3. More at https://brandpr.io/
About HashLock
Hashlock is the industry leading blockchain cybersecurity and smart contract auditing firm. We specialise in manual analysis led security research, securing billions of dollars in digital assets, with clients ranging from innovative web3 startups to global blockchain enterprises.More at https://hashlock.com/
Media and Partnership Contact
Anubhav Tomar, Co-Founder, Luvon Labs
Email: anubhav@luvonlabs.com
Web: luvonlabs.com

A security researcher has published proof-of-concept details for a new Windows security vulnerability that could hand hackers full control of a victim’s device, weeks after Microsoft threatened legal action over exactly this kind of public disclosure. The flaw, dubbed ShieldBreak, targets a weakness inside Windows Defender, the anti-malware engine built directly into every modern copy of Windows, and it lands amid an increasingly bitter dispute between Microsoft and the researcher who found it.
Key takeaways
ShieldBreak is a new zero-day that exploits a flaw in Windows Defender’s security engine to escalate a low-level user to full system access.
It affects Windows 10, Windows 11 (including the newest 25H2 build), and Windows Server 2025.
The exploit requires a victim to run a malicious Windows app; researcher Will Dormann confirmed it works when Windows Defender is enabled.
It builds on an earlier flaw called RoguePlanet, which Microsoft patched incompletely, according to the researcher who found both.
Microsoft has not released a fix for ShieldBreak and did not respond to a request for comment from TechCrunch.
New zero-day vulnerability exploits Windows Defender flaw
ShieldBreak works by abusing a weakness inside Windows Defender itself, turning the very tool meant to catch malware into the doorway attackers need. Once triggered, a successful attack lets a hacker jump from limited, low-level access on a machine to complete control over the device and everything stored on it.
Technical details of the ShieldBreak exploit
The researcher behind the discovery, who goes by Nightmare Eclipse, published the proof-of-concept as a working Windows application rather than just a written description. That decision matters because it hands anyone technically capable the raw material to reproduce the attack, not just a theoretical outline. Security researcher Will Dormann independently checked the exploit and confirmed it functions as described — but only when Windows Defender is switched on, which is the default state on the vast majority of Windows machines.
Affected Windows versions and activation method
According to the researcher’s own disclosure, the Windows Defender flaw reaches across a wide swath of current Microsoft operating systems: Windows 10, Windows 11 including its latest 25H2 release, and Windows Server 2025. For the attack to work, a target has to actually run the malicious app that carries the exploit. That’s a meaningful caveat — this isn’t a bug that fires automatically just by connecting to a network — but it still leaves plenty of room for social engineering, phishing, or bundling the payload inside something that looks harmless.
Why this matters: because Windows Defender ships active by default across consumer and enterprise machines alike, the population of devices technically exposed to this zero-day Windows bug is enormous, even though real-world exploitation still depends on tricking someone into launching a file.
Connection to previous RoguePlanet exploit and patch issues
ShieldBreak isn’t an isolated discovery — it’s a sequel. Nightmare Eclipse had previously disclosed a related flaw called RoguePlanet, and Microsoft did ship a patch for it at the time. The problem, according to the researcher, is that the fix didn’t go far enough.
Nightmare Eclipse says ShieldBreak amounts to a complete bypass of the earlier RoguePlanet patch, effectively reopening a door Microsoft believed it had closed. That’s a notable claim in its own right: it suggests the company’s remediation work on a prior ShieldBreak exploit-adjacent flaw was, at best, partial. For defenders and IT teams who assumed the RoguePlanet issue was closed out, this is the kind of detail that forces a second look at patch logs.
Microsoft’s response and ongoing disclosure conflict
Microsoft has stayed largely silent. No patch has shipped for ShieldBreak, and the company did not immediately respond when TechCrunch asked for comment on the flaw.
Lack of patch and official comment
Because Microsoft had no advance window to fix the bug before it went public, ShieldBreak qualifies as a genuine zero-day: the software maker was given zero days of lead time to prepare a defense before details went live. That framing matters for enterprise security teams, who now have to weigh mitigations — such as monitoring for suspicious app execution or tightening endpoint controls — without an official patch to lean on.
Legal threats and retraction regarding researchers
This isn’t the first friction point between Microsoft and Nightmare Eclipse. Back in May, Microsoft published a blog post warning that it could pursue legal action against security researchers who release zero-day details outside the company’s own disclosure policy — language widely read as aimed at researchers like Nightmare Eclipse. The post triggered swift backlash from the broader security community, with numerous researchers describing similar frustrations with how Microsoft handles vulnerability reports. Microsoft eventually walked back the threat in a social media post, though the original blog entry remains published and unchanged.
Researcher’s claims of mishandled bug reports
In a series of posts, Nightmare Eclipse has argued that Microsoft mistreated them and failed to properly process their bug submissions, framing public disclosure as a last resort rather than a first move. That’s a serious allegation, and it sits at the center of why this specific Windows security vulnerability keeps surfacing in public rather than through private coordination with Microsoft’s security team. Several bugs the same researcher previously disclosed have gone on to be exploited in real-world attacks against organizations, which raises the stakes considerably every time a new one drops without a ready fix.
The broader implication is uncomfortable for both sides. If researchers feel disclosure channels are broken, more zero-days will likely surface with no patch waiting — leaving users exposed in the gap. But if Microsoft’s legal posture toward researchers hardens again, it risks pushing future discoveries further underground, where they’re found by attackers first and defenders last.
FAQ
What is the ShieldBreak vulnerability?
ShieldBreak is a new Windows vulnerability that exploits a flaw in Windows Defender, allowing hackers to gain full system access to an affected device.
Which Windows versions are affected by ShieldBreak?
ShieldBreak affects Windows 10, Windows 11 including the latest 25H2 version, and Windows Server 2025.
How does the ShieldBreak exploit activate?
The exploit activates when a user runs a malicious Windows app specifically designed to trigger the vulnerability.
Has Microsoft released a patch to fix ShieldBreak?
No. Microsoft has not released a patch for ShieldBreak and has not commented publicly on the vulnerability.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Jembatan lintas-rantai yang pernah memuat lebih dari 200.000 XRP ditinggalkan dengan uang receh dalam waktu kurang dari dua jam, dan tidak ada yang perlu mencuri satu pun kunci privat untuk membuatnya terjadi. Peretasan jembatan XRP Coreum menguras 99,7% cadangan yang mendukung konektor penghubung Coreum-ke-Ledger XRP pada 9 Agustus, mengubah verifikasi deposit yang seharusnya rutin menjadi pintu terbuka bagi penyerang yang hanya memahami perangkat lunak itu lebih baik daripada orang-orang yang menjalankannya.
Poin-poin penting
Seorang penyerang menguras 99,7% cadangan XRP yang mendukung jembatan lintas-blockchain Coreum pada 9 Agustus, sehingga jembatan tersebut hanya menyisakan sekitar 493 XRP.

Google has officially pulled back the curtain on its next generation of hardware, and the Google Pixel 11 launch at the Made by Google ’26 event delivered exactly what months of leaks promised: four new phones, a redesigned smartwatch, and Google’s first real answer to Apple’s AirTag. The company also leaned hard into artificial intelligence, weaving Gemini into everything from sign-language translation to voice input, signaling that hardware upgrades are now inseparable from software intelligence at Google.
Key takeaways
Google unveiled the Pixel 11 series, Pixel Watch 5, and a new tracking device called Pixel Tag at the Made by Google ’26 event.
The standard Pixel 11 starts at $899 with a redesigned camera bar and 256GB of base storage.
The Pixel 11 Pro and Pro XL start at $1,099 and bring major durability upgrades, including anti-scratch display coating.
Pixel Tag, Google’s AirTag rival, is priced at $29 each or $99 for a four-pack.
Gemini now powers accessibility tools like American Sign Language translation and a new voice-input feature called Rambler.
Made by Google ’26 marks the official Pixel 11 launch
The Google Pixel 11 launch anchored an event that, unusually, aired in the evening rather than during typical daytime hours, and was fronted by comedian Trevor Noah as host. Google used the stage to formally confirm what leaks had already hinted at for weeks: a refreshed phone lineup, an upgraded wearable, and a brand-new accessory category for the company.
Pixel 11 series lineup and pricing
The standard Pixel 11 gets a visibly different look, with a redesigned camera bar that Google says is more than 40% thinner than before and now stretches across the phone in an all-glass surface. Base storage doubles to 256GB, up from the previous starting capacity, and the phone launches in Frost, Hibiscus, Pistachio, and Obsidian.
That extra storage comes with a price bump. The Pixel 11 starts at $899, a $100 increase over the Pixel 10, and Google has dropped the 128GB tier entirely. The company points to a mix of the storage jump and an ongoing RAM supply shortage as reasons behind the higher starting price — a detail that hints at broader supply-chain pressure across the smartphone industry, not just at Google.
The Pro tier follows a similar pattern. The Pixel 11 Pro and Pixel 11 Pro XL start at $1,099, up from $999 for last year’s Pixel 10 Pro, and come in Canyon, Fog, Olive, and a new all-matte Obsidian finish. Rounding out the family, the Pixel 11 Pro Fold arrives in Olive and Obsidian, with a 48-megapixel main camera and 30x Super Zoom.
Pixel Watch 5 and Pixel Tag join the lineup
The Pixel Watch 5 pushes further into health tracking. Through the Google Health app, the watch now delivers monthly summaries of blood pressure trends and insulin resistance trends, giving wearers a longer-term view of patterns rather than just daily snapshots. Pricing starts at $399 for the 41mm model and $429 for the 45mm version, while a Stephen Curry edition — built around a workout-focused design — is available for $579. Google also refreshed its earbuds line, with Pixel Buds Pro now available in a new Olive color.
Perhaps the bigger surprise is Pixel Tag, Google’s first item tracker and its direct answer to Apple’s AirTag. Designed to help people locate keys, wallets, or luggage, the small tag connects to Android’s Find Hub network so users can track it through the Find Hub app, similar to Apple’s Find My system. It costs $29 individually or $99 for a four-pack, and it can be located from a Pixel Watch or by asking Gemini through Pixel Buds to find or ring it — turning a simple tracker into another entry point for Google’s voice assistant.
Gemini AI features headline the Made by Google event
Artificial intelligence, not hardware specs alone, dominated much of the presentation, with Google positioning Gemini as the connective tissue across its entire device ecosystem. That framing matters: as smartphone hardware upgrades become more incremental year over year, AI features are increasingly what companies use to justify a new purchase cycle.
Live Transcribe adds ASL translation
One of the more meaningful accessibility updates expands Live Transcribe to support American Sign Language. Using the Pixel Camera, the feature can translate sign language into text in real time, giving users another way to communicate without needing to type. It’s a rare example of an AI feature aimed squarely at accessibility rather than convenience or productivity.
Rambler and Circle to Search refine voice and camera search
Google also introduced Rambler, a new voice-input feature built to handle the way people actually speak — run-on sentences, filler words, and unstructured phrasing — rather than requiring carefully worded commands. Alongside it, Circle to Search now integrates more directly into the Pixel Camera, letting users identify objects, search for distant items, translate text, or ask questions about their surroundings without ever leaving the camera app.
Durability takes center stage in the Pixel 11 Pro lineup
Durability emerged as a defining theme for this year’s Pro-tier phones, suggesting Google is trying to close a long-standing gap with rivals on build quality and longevity rather than competing purely on specs.
Anti-scratch coating and drop resistance improvements
The Pixel 11 Pro and Pro XL now feature improved drop resistance alongside a new anti-scratch display coating that Google says provides more than twice the scratch resistance of the Pixel 10 Pro models. For a company that has historically trailed competitors on screen durability, that’s a notable claim — and one that positions the Pro line as a more serious long-term investment for buyers who don’t upgrade every year.
Pixel 11 Pro Fold sheds weight and bulk
The Pixel 11 Pro Fold gets arguably the most substantial redesign of the year. Google says the the foldable model weighs approximately 10% less and measures nearly 1mm thinner in comparison to the Pixel 10 Pro Fold, with slimmer bezels alongside its 48-megapixel camera and 30x zoom. Structurally, the phone builds on the IP68 water and dust resistance introduced last generation, adding a glass-fiber composite back cover designed to resist cracking and a redesigned hinge that better protects the inner display. Combined, Google says these changes make the Pixel 11 Pro Fold three times more durable than its predecessor — a significant claim for a foldable category that has struggled with long-term reliability since its inception.
Taken together, the durability push and the AI expansion point to where Google sees its competitive edge: not necessarily raw performance, but reliability and intelligence layered on top of familiar hardware. Whether that’s enough to shift buying decisions away from Apple and Samsung will depend on how these features hold up once the phones reach real-world users.
FAQ
What new AI features did Google introduce with the Pixel 11 series?
Google introduced Gemini-powered features including ASL translation via Live Transcribe and Rambler voice-input, which processes natural speech more effectively.
What are the key design improvements of the Pixel 11 Pro Fold compared to its predecessor?
The Pixel 11 Pro Fold is about 10% lighter, nearly 1mm thinner, has slimmer bezels, and offers three times the durability of the Pixel 10 Pro Fold.
How does Pixel Tag work and how is it priced?
Pixel Tag is a tracking device similar to Apple’s AirTag, connects to Android’s Find Hub network, and is priced at $29 each or $99 for a four-pack.
What health features does the Pixel Watch 5 offer?
Pixel Watch 5 provides monthly summaries of blood pressure and insulin resistance trends through the Google Health app.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Anthropic and independent researchers have introduced a new way to measure something AI models have historically struggled to prove they’re good at: reasoning through problems that have no clean, verifiable answer. The Conceptual Reasoning Index (CRI), unveiled this week, combines three separate benchmarks to score how well large language models handle philosophical arguments, logical consistency, and decision-theory puzzles — the kind of thinking many researchers believe will matter most as AI systems take on a bigger role in managing their own risks.
Key takeaways
The Conceptual Reasoning Index combines three benchmarks — LMCA, ACCoRD, and DTBench capabilities — into a single 0-to-100 score of AI conceptual reasoning.
The top-performing model, Opus 5, scored 73.6 on the CRI, well below an estimated ceiling of around 91.
The LMCA dataset includes 560 position texts and 1,461 expert-rated arguments covering philosophy, decision theory, and AI risk.
Scores have climbed roughly linearly since late 2024 with no sign of leveling off.
The project was built in collaboration with Anthropic and researchers Emery Cooper and Caspar Oesterheld.
Introduction to the Conceptual Reasoning Index (CRI)
The CRI exists because some of the most important work AI systems might eventually do — helping humans understand and plan for advanced AI risk — can’t be checked against a clear right answer the way math or coding problems can. Its creators argue that many of the tasks tied to AI risk mitigation require the kind of argumentation used in philosophy and AI futurism rather than empirical verification, and that current training methods, which lean heavily on data with reliable feedback, tend to leave models weaker at exactly this kind of reasoning.
To close that measurement gap, the researchers built three separate AI risk benchmarks and rolled them into one aggregate score. The Conceptual Reasoning Index (CRI) aggregates three benchmarks — LMCA, ACCoRD, and DTBench capabilities — into a single number meant to capture a model’s overall conceptual reasoning ability. The index is publicly available at conceptualreasoning.ai, where the team says it will keep updating scores and methodology as new models and new benchmarks arrive.
Purpose of CRI in AI risk management
Why build this at all? The researchers behind the project say that once AI models can do risk-reduction work at a human-expert level, AI-assisted output in that space could dwarf what humans alone produce. That means how quickly models can be trained to reason well about governance, alignment, and cooperation failures involving AI may become a decisive factor in whether risks get addressed in time. Improving conceptual reasoning in AI models is considered important precisely because it targets that gap — the tasks that lack empirical feedback loops and therefore tend to be neglected by standard training.
Benchmark aggregation and availability
The CRI isn’t a single test — it’s a weighted composite. Currently, LMCA counts for 60% of the score, with ACCoRD and DTBench capabilities each contributing 20%. The team says it plans to add new benchmarks over time, retire ones that become saturated, and potentially rebalance those weights as models improve.
Detailed Breakdown of CRI Component Benchmarks
Each of the three components targets a different flavor of reasoning that’s hard to verify empirically but still measurable through expert judgment or logical rules.
LMCA dataset: scope and expert ratings
LMCA, short for Language Model Conceptual Argumentation, is built around curated, expert-rated arguments spanning decision theory, philosophy, and risks from advanced AI. The LMCA dataset contains 560 position texts paired with 1,461 expert-rated arguments written against those positions. Nearly all of the arguments were rated by conceptual researcher Emery Cooper, with a portion independently rated by at least one other researcher, producing 2,140 ratings in total. A validation set of roughly 50 arguments was rated independently by four to six people and then debated for seven to eight hours combined, a process meant to establish how much humans agree with each other before comparing them to model outputs.
Right now, LMCA only scores how well models judge existing arguments rather than generate new ones, though the team says it hopes to add an argument-generation measure down the line.
ACCoRD: measuring logical consistency in model beliefs
ACCoRD checks something different: whether a model’s own stated beliefs and preferences hold together logically. If a model reports a probability for event A and, separately, a probability for A and B occurring together, does it respect basic rules like P(A) being greater than or equal to P(A&B)? The full ACCoRD dataset contains close to 14,000 model-generated consistency constraints across 18 constraint types, run through an automated checker. Of those, 567 validated constraints made it into the CRI after manual review — a deliberately conservative filter meant to keep only the checks the researchers are confident in.
DTBench: decision-theory reasoning evaluation
DTBench tests decision-theory reasoning with 407 multiple-choice questions, most of them handcrafted by Caspar Oesterheld, who has published academic work on decision theory, and independently validated by Emery Cooper. The questions probe scenarios involving self-prediction and interactions with near-copies of an agent — the sort of thought experiments decision theorists have long debated. An additional 130 questions in the full DTBench suite measure decision-theoretic attitudes but were left out of the CRI score.
CRI Performance Results and Trends
Even the best models tested still fall well short of what the benchmarks consider a near-perfect score, though the gap has been closing steadily.
Current performance scores and comparison to ceilings
CRI scores range from 0 to 100, with 0 representing random guessing. The researchers estimate a realistic ceiling of around 91 rather than a full 100, because human ratings themselves carry some noise — even expert raters don’t agree with each other 100% of the time. The highest score recorded so far belongs to Opus 5, at 73.6, with a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 2.1. That leaves a meaningful gap between current top performance and the estimated ceiling, suggesting there’s still real room for models to improve at conceptual reasoning before the benchmark itself becomes the limiting factor.
Trends in model performance improvement over time
What stands out in the data isn’t just where models are now, but how fast they’ve been moving. Model performance has been improving roughly linearly since late 2024, and the researchers report no sign of that trend flattening out. That steady climb matters for anyone trying to forecast when AI systems might become genuinely useful collaborators on the kind of argument-heavy work that AI safety research depends on.
Benchmark-specific saturation estimates
Not every component is moving at the same pace. Extrapolating current trends, the researchers loosely estimate that LMCA will start saturating in about a year. DTBench, on the other hand, is already close to its ceiling — one evaluated model, Fable 5, answered 98% of DTBench questions correctly. ACCoRD is the wildcard: the team says it’s genuinely uncertain about when that benchmark will saturate, since consistency errors can persist even as raw reasoning ability improves.
Significance and Collaborative Development of the CRI
Why does any of this matter beyond a leaderboard? Because the people building the Conceptual Reasoning Index see conceptual reasoning as a bottleneck skill for AI risk work specifically — the kind of work that involves reasoning about governance, alignment, and catastrophic cooperation failures where there’s no dataset of past outcomes to train on. Improving conceptual reasoning in AI models is considered important to help reduce advanced AI risks precisely because so much of that risk-mitigation work depends on argumentation rather than empirical testing.
The project was built through a collaboration involving Anthropic alongside conceptual researchers Emery Cooper and Caspar Oesterheld, who contributed both to the dataset design and the expert ratings that anchor the LMCA and DTBench components. That combination of institutional backing and domain-specific expert input is part of what distinguishes the CRI from more conventional AI benchmarks focused on math, coding, or general knowledge — areas where correctness can usually be checked automatically.
The live scores and methodology notes are hosted at conceptualreasoning.ai, and access to the underlying LMCA dataset is available through a request form, a structure that suggests the team wants outside researchers testing and challenging the benchmark rather than treating it as a closed internal metric.
FAQ
What is the Conceptual Reasoning Index (CRI)?
The CRI aggregates three benchmarks — LMCA, ACCoRD, and DTBench — to measure AI models’ conceptual reasoning abilities, producing a single 0-to-100 score.
What types of reasoning does the LMCA dataset evaluate?
LMCA evaluates models on judging conceptual arguments related to philosophy, decision theory, and AI risks, comparing model ratings against expert human ratings.
How is logical consistency tested in AI models by ACCoRD?
ACCoRD measures whether a model’s reported beliefs and preferences satisfy logical consistency constraints, such as basic probability rules, using 567 validated constraints in the CRI.
How well are current AI models performing on the CRI?
The current top model, Opus 5, scores around 73.6 out of 100 on the CRI, with scores across evaluated models improving roughly linearly since late 2024 and no sign yet of that growth slowing down.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

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A quiet corner of the Somme became the unlikely scene of a crypto millionaire data leak gone wrong, after a French couple who had simply bought a house found themselves face-to-face with intruders who clearly had the wrong address. According to local reporting relayed by The Block, the pair were hit with three separate home invasion attempts in under a month, all because the previous owner’s tax records and home address had surfaced on the dark web.
Key takeaways
A French couple in the Somme bought a home once owned by a crypto millionaire, unaware it would turn them into a target.
The previous owner’s tax details and address leaked onto the dark web, apparently pointing attackers toward the wrong front door.
Attackers attempted three home invasions in under a month, mistaking the new owners for the departed crypto millionaire.
An Amiens court sentenced two men for their role in the third attempted break-in.
The case echoes a wider trend: Chainalysis says France has become a hotspot for violent “wrench attacks” on crypto holders in 2026.
Mistaken Home Invasions After a Crypto Millionaire Moved Out
The trouble started the moment a couple in the Somme closed on a property that had once belonged to a crypto millionaire, unknowingly inheriting an address criminals still considered valuable. What should have been an ordinary rural home purchase instead put them in the path of attackers chasing money that no longer lived there.
New Owners Targeted After Buying the Former Crypto Millionaire’s House
The new owners had no connection to cryptocurrency or the wealth their predecessor once held. Their only link to the case was the deed itself. Once the previous resident’s personal information started circulating in criminal circles, the house — not the person — became the fixed point attackers kept returning to.
Repeated Attacks Mistake New Owners’ Home for Millionaire’s
Over the course of less than a month, the property was targeted three separate times. Each attempted break-in followed the same flawed premise: that the crypto millionaire who used to own the house was still living there with assets worth stealing. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests the attackers were working from outdated but specific information rather than acting on a whim.
A Dark Web Data Leak Triggered the Attacks
The root cause traces back to leaked information that never should have left government or corporate systems in the first place. The previous owner’s tax details and home address ended up circulating on the dark web, giving criminals exactly the kind of dark web leaked information needed to plan a physical attack on the wrong household.
Leaked Information Enables Criminal Targeting
Once an address is tied to a name and a presumed fortune, geography becomes destiny — even after the original owner has moved on. The Somme case shows how stale but accurate leaked data can still generate real-world danger years after the original crypto millionaire data leak occurred, simply because nobody updated the criminals’ target list.
This particular leak’s exact origin hasn’t been detailed, but it fits a documented pattern in France. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis has pointed to a broader data compromise as the likeliest driver behind a wave of violent crypto-related crime nationwide, tracing back to a 2024 case in which a French tax official is alleged to have taken and commercialized confidential records concerning wealthy cryptocurrency investors, encompassing personal identifiers and residential locations, phone numbers and tax records. A separate breach disclosed by crypto tax-reporting firm Waltio in January 2026 exposed roughly 50,000 users, though Waltio has said that leak did not include postal addresses, phone numbers or wallet keys.
Legal Consequences and France’s Wider Wrench-Attack Crisis
The legal system has already caught up with part of the Somme case: an Amiens court sentenced two men for their involvement in the third attempted break-in at the couple’s home. It’s a rare instance where the justice system moved quickly enough to attach consequences to one link in a chain of attacks driven by leaked personal data.
Two Men Sentenced by Amiens Court
The sentencing addressed only the final of the three attempted invasions, underscoring how difficult it can be for authorities to fully dismantle networks built around bought and sold personal information rather than a single criminal actor.
France’s Wrench-Attack Surge
The Somme case is not an isolated oddity — it’s a symptom of a much larger problem. Chainalysis reported that violent criminals stole more than $30 million in cryptocurrency worldwide through the first half of 2026, putting the year on pace to challenge 2025’s full-year record of $58 million. Counting attempted transfers that were blocked, frozen or later recovered, the total demanded climbed to roughly $107 million so far in 2026, according to the firm.
France stands out disproportionately in that data. Chainalysis logged just a handful of crypto-related violent incidents before 2025, when the number jumped to 19; by mid-2026 it had already recorded 30 publicly known French cases. In late June, French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez reported that law enforcement agencies had recorded over 70 incidents of violence connected to the crypto sector, while separate figures cited by FinanceFeeds put the six-month tally at 77 cases involving unlawful detention, kidnapping or extortion attempts, compared with 45 for all of 2025.
Home invasions specifically climbed to 37% of France’s 2026 incidents, up from 14% in 2025, and relatives or acquaintances of crypto holders were targeted in more than 40% of French cases — far above the global average. French prosecutors have responded with roughly 200 arrests, 88 indictments and 75 suspects held in pretrial detention by mid-year, part of a broader crackdown treating the wave as organized crime rather than isolated street robbery.
What makes the Somme case notable within that bigger picture is that it didn’t even hit its intended target. The attackers went after an address, not a person, and the person who mattered had already moved on. That gap between digital records and physical reality is exactly what security researchers warn about when personal data tied to crypto wealth ends up for sale: the risk doesn’t disappear when the original owner does — it simply waits for whoever moves in next.
FAQ
Why were the new owners targeted instead of the crypto millionaire?
Attackers mistook the new owners’ house for the crypto millionaire’s because the previous owner’s tax details and address were leaked onto the dark web, leaving outdated but accurate location data in criminal hands.
What legal actions were taken against the attackers?
Two men were sentenced by an Amiens court for their involvement in the third attempted break-in at the property.
How did the attackers obtain the information to target the house?
The previous owner’s tax details and home address leaked onto the dark web, giving attackers the information needed to identify and repeatedly target the property.
What does this case illustrate about data privacy for crypto millionaires?
It shows that leaked personal data can create real-world risks well beyond the original victim, including mistaken home invasions against people with no connection to cryptocurrency, underscoring the stakes of personal data privacy risks tied to crypto wealth.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Harmony telah mengonfirmasi bahwa blockchain mereka terkena pelanggaran keamanan serius, setelah seorang penyerang berhasil mencetak 4 miliar token ONE tanpa izin dan mulai membuangnya di berbagai bursa. Eksploitasi Harmony ONE memicu penurunan harga tajam dalam hitungan jam dan telah menghidupkan kembali kekhawatiran tentang rekam jejak keamanan jaringan tersebut, hanya beberapa tahun setelah salah satu peretasan jembatan lintas-rantai terbesar dalam sejarah kripto.
Inti utama
Harmony mengonfirmasi adanya eksploit yang melibatkan pencetakan 4 miliar token ONE tanpa izin.

Skan AI telah mengumpulkan pendanaan Seri C sebesar $63 juta, dengan taruhan bahwa hambatan terbesar untuk mewujudkan alur kerja AI perusahaan bukanlah model yang lebih cerdas — melainkan ketidakmampuan sebuah perusahaan untuk melihat bagaimana karyawan mereka sendiri benar-benar menyelesaikan pekerjaan. Putaran ini dipimpin bersama oleh Cathay Innovation dan Dell Technologies Capital, hadir ketika perusahaan-perusahaan menghadapi kenyataan yang tegas: sebagian besar agen AI yang telah mereka terapkan sejauh ini ternyata belum berhasil.
Citi Ventures, Bloomberg Beta, State Farm Ventures, dan Wipro Ventures turut bergabung dalam putaran tersebut, mendorong total pendanaan perusahaan berusia tujuh tahun itu menjadi sekitar $120 juta. Bersamaan dengan penggalangan dana, Skan AI mengumumkan ketersediaan umum untuk dua produk baru, Skan AI Blueprint dan Skan AI Agents, yang bergabung dengan penawaran yang sudah ada, Skan AI Intelligence, untuk membentuk apa yang perusahaan sebut sebagai platform lengkap untuk menemukan, memodelkan, dan mengotomatisasi alur kerja perusahaan.

Kraven’s rivals are consolidating fast in Europe, and the latest sign of that shift comes from an unlikely pairing. The Kraken MEXC partnership announced this week will see MEXC refer its Netherlands-based spot and derivatives clients directly to Kraken, as MEXC winds down its offering in that market. It’s a quiet but telling moment for an industry where regulatory weight increasingly decides who stays and who exits.
Key takeaways
Kraken and MEXC are partnering so MEXC can refer its Netherlands spot and derivatives clients to Kraken as it exits the market.
Kraken has held MiCA authorization through the Central Bank of Ireland since June 2025, plus MiFID authorization from CySEC and an E-money license from the CBI.
Referred clients gain access to a single platform with more than 600 crypto assets, tokenized equities, and perpetual futures.
Kraken publishes quarterly, independently verified Proof of Reserves and offers EUR fiat rails to EEA clients.
Both companies say they will provide transition-related support to help affected users move with minimal disruption.
Kraken and MEXC partner to migrate Netherlands clients
MEXC is stepping back from the Dutch market as part of a broader realignment of its regional strategy, and it has chosen Kraken as the landing spot for its displaced customers. The move affects both spot and derivatives users in the Netherlands, a group that now needs a new home for their crypto holdings and trading activity.
Context of the partnership
This isn’t a merger or an acquisition — it’s a referral arrangement built around necessity. As MEXC scales back its Netherlands presence, it is pointing users toward a platform that already carries the regulatory credentials to operate legally in the region. That distinction matters more than it might seem at first glance, because Europe’s crypto rulebook has tightened considerably, and not every exchange has kept pace.
User migration and transition support
Both companies have committed to helping affected users through the process. Robert MacDonald, Chief Compliance Officer of MEXC, said the company’s priority throughout the transition is “to ensure that affected users are supported through a clear and orderly process.” He added that by working with Kraken, MEXC is “providing eligible users in the Netherlands with an established alternative” while it adjusts its service availability in the market, with the stated goal of minimizing disruption.
Kraken’s robust regulatory authorizations in Europe
Kraken’s pitch to incoming MEXC clients rests almost entirely on its regulatory paperwork, and that paperwork is unusually deep for a crypto platform. The company holds three separate European authorizations that together cover trading, derivatives, and e-money services.
Overview of MiCA and MiFID licenses
Kraken has held MiCA authorization through the Central Bank of Ireland since June 2025, giving it a license to offer crypto-asset services across the European Economic Area under the bloc’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework. Alongside that, Kraken holds a MiFID authorization from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission covering derivatives, and a separate E-money authorization from the Central Bank of Ireland. Investment services tied to financial instruments are carried out by Payward Europe Digital Solutions (CY) Limited, which is authorized by CySEC under license number 342/17.
Significance of Kraken’s regulatory standing
Why does this matter? Because Europe’s crypto sector is quietly thinning out. Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO of Kraken and Payward, framed the moment bluntly: “Markets consolidate toward fewer venues that do more. A significant share of platforms are expected to exit the EU or restrict services, and liquidity concentrates on the venues that remain.” Sethi said Kraken built its structure — “a multi-product, multi-asset group with e-money licenses, MiCA authorization held since June 2025, and MiFID authorization across the EEA” — specifically to be ready for this kind of shakeout. Holding both MiCA and MiFID authorizations puts Kraken among a limited number of platforms in Europe with that combination, which gives clients a single licensed venue for both spot crypto and financial instruments rather than juggling multiple providers.
Platform features and client benefits for referred users
For the Dutch users being referred over, the immediate question is simple: what do they actually get on the other side? Kraken’s answer centers on breadth and transparency.
Asset offerings and trading instruments
Sethi described the offer as “one platform spanning more than 600 crypto assets, tokenized equities, and perpetual futures, with EUR rails and quarterly independently verified Proof of Reserves.” That range covers standard spot trading, derivatives products, and tokenized equity exposure — though it’s worth noting that tokenized equities are synthetic instruments tracking the price of underlying stocks, and they do not confer direct shareholder rights, ownership, or voting rights. Kraken’s xStocks, for example, are issued by Backed Assets (JE) Limited and offered through Payward Digital Solutions Ltd., a Bermuda-licensed digital asset business; they are not registered with local securities regulators and remain unavailable to U.S. persons, with other geographic restrictions applying elsewhere.
Transparency through Proof of Reserves
On the trust side, Kraken points to quarterly, independently verified Proof of Reserves as a way for incoming clients to check that their assets are actually backed. Combined with EUR fiat rails for EEA clients, the pitch is less about flashy features and more about operational stability — a reasonable priority for users who just watched their previous exchange retreat from their market.
FAQ
Why is MEXC migrating its Netherlands clients to Kraken?
MEXC is winding as part of a broader realignment of its regional strategy, scaling back its presence in the Netherlands and is referring clients to Kraken for continued service.
What regulatory licenses does Kraken hold for operating in Europe?
Kraken has MiCA authorization through the Central Bank of Ireland since June 2025, MiFID authorization from CySEC for derivatives, and an E-money authorization from the Central Bank of Ireland.
What benefits do referred clients receive on Kraken’s platform?
Referred clients get access to a licensed platform offering over 600 crypto assets, tokenized equities, and perpetual futures, along with EUR fiat rails and quarterly independently verified Proof of Reserves.
How will MEXC support clients during the migration?
MEXC has committed to providing clear and orderly transition-related support throughout the client migration process to help minimize disruption for affected users.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

PayPal PYPL stock is doing something that often frustrates trend followers. It is holding its gains without extending them. The daily close at $59.00 sits far above the 50-day EMA at $51.87 and the 200-day EMA at $52.75. That structure is not in question. What is in question is whether buyers still have the energy to break the ceiling that has formed just overhead.
PYPL — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.
Key takeaways
PayPal PYPL stock closed at $59.00, well above both the 50-day EMA at $51.87 and the 200-day EMA at $52.75, keeping the daily trend structurally bullish.
Daily RSI at 70.58 signals overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram has turned negative at -0.22, pointing to fading momentum.
Resistance sits at $59.44 and the $60.00 upper Bollinger Band, with support at $58.55 and the daily mid-band at $57.40.
The stock surged 32.5% in July but remains pinned below the rejected $60.50 bid, which acts as both a ceiling and a magnet.
ATR compression across the hourly and 15-minute charts signals a pending breakout or breakdown from the current consolidation.
Why the daily picture on PayPal PYPL stock reads bullish but tired
The daily chart on PayPal PYPL stock shows a structurally bullish trend that is losing momentum at the edges. Price remains above all major moving averages, but the impulse behind the advance is decelerating.
The moving average stack is the strongest argument for the bulls. EMA20 at $56.23 sits above both the EMA50 and the EMA200, and price sits above all three. Trends in that configuration rarely reverse without warning. They usually roll over slowly, and that process starts with momentum, not with price.
Momentum is exactly where the cracks show. Daily RSI at 70.58 has pushed into overbought territory, which reflects the strength of the advance rather than an automatic sell signal. However, the MACD is more revealing. The line at 2.86 has slipped below the signal at 3.07, leaving a MACD histogram of -0.22. The impulse is decelerating even as price holds near its highs.
Volatility tells a similar story. Daily ATR at $1.36 gives roughly a 2.3% average daily range against a $59 share price. That is not a quiet tape. Yet the last daily candle spanned just $58.55 to $59.44, well inside that average. Contraction after a strong run is typically a pause, not a resolution.
Notably, the Bollinger structure frames the whole debate. The mid-band at $57.40 is the line that matters for trend followers on pullbacks. The $60.00 upper band caps the current attempt. The daily regime is classified as neutral for good reason. Direction is bullish, but conviction is not.
The hourly chart confirms the trend, without confirming a breakout
The hourly chart on PYPL supports the bullish structure but offers no breakout signal of its own. The alignment is constructive, yet momentum readings sit squarely in neutral territory.
On the 1H timeframe the regime reads bullish, and the alignment supports it. EMA20 at $58.87 sits above EMA50 at $58.49, with EMA200 far below at $54.31. Price at $59.00 remains on the right side of all of them. Therefore the intraday structure still belongs to buyers.
At the same time, hourly momentum is neutral rather than expansive. RSI at 54.78 is mid-range. The MACD line at 0.10 sits marginally under its 0.12 signal, with a histogram of -0.02. That is balance, not pressure. Hourly bands are compressed between $58.38 and $59.40, with the mid at $58.89. ATR has fallen to $0.34.
This is where the timeframes complicate each other. The daily chart argues that a powerful move has already happened and is now cooling. The hourly chart argues that the trend is intact but currently range-bound. Neither view is wrong, and both point to the same practical conclusion: the next directional leg needs a catalyst, not just drift.
15m: execution context in a very narrow band
The 15-minute chart on PYPL provides execution-level precision inside a compressed range, with no directional bias to trade against. Short-term traders are navigating a band barely half a dollar wide.
The EMA structure is almost mechanically flat. EMA20 at $58.96, EMA50 at $58.92 and EMA200 at $58.49 are stacked within half a dollar. RSI sits at 52.50 and the MACD histogram is effectively zero. ATR of $0.12 confirms how thin the short-term range has become.
For timing purposes, the intraday pivots are the reference points: $59.03 as the pivot, $59.11 above and $58.92 below. Sustained trade above the $59.11–$59.14 zone would show that buyers are absorbing supply. Losing $58.92 would signal short-term rotation back toward the hourly band floor near $58.38.
The bullish scenario
The bullish case hinges on a daily close above $59.44, which would open the path toward the $60.50 deal ceiling. Structure favors continuation, but the trigger has not yet fired.
The bull case is straightforward and rests on structure. A daily close above the $59.44 pivot resistance would be the first step. Acceptance above the $60.00 upper band would then confirm the consolidation was continuation. Given daily ATR of $1.36, such a break has room to travel quickly once it triggers.
Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop adds context. PayPal was one of the standout S&P 500 performers in July, gaining 32.5%. Jim Cramer pointed to operational improvements under CEO Enrique Lores alongside M&A speculation. Critically, the stock still trades below the $60.50 bid the board turned down. That rejected bid explains why the $60 area behaves like a ceiling and a magnet at the same time.
For the bullish path to gain credibility, the daily MACD histogram would need to turn positive again. The hourly MACD would also need to reclaim its signal line. Holding above the daily mid-band at $57.40 on any dip would keep the sequence of higher lows intact.
The bearish scenario
The bearish case activates if PayPal PYPL stock fails at resistance and breaks below $58.55 support. Overbought readings then shift from strength signals to exhaustion warnings.
The bearish case begins with failure at the highs. If PayPal PYPL stock cannot clear $59.44 and instead loses the $58.55 daily support, the picture shifts. The overbought RSI reading would turn from a strength signal into an exhaustion warning. A move back to the $57.40 mid-band would be the first logical target. The $54.80 lower band serves as the deeper reference.
In contrast to the July surge, longer-horizon commentary has been notably lukewarm. One article framed PayPal as having returned substantial cash to owners while the stock still lagged the market. Another investor letter described returns as adequate without dramatic change. Wall Street is taking a “prove it” approach to the current valuation, according to coverage of the rejected bid spread.
That skepticism matters technically. If deal speculation cools, the $60.50 reference loses its gravitational pull. The stock is then left leaning on momentum that is already fading. A decisive break of $58.38 on the hourly chart would be the first warning. The EMA50 at $58.49 flipping into resistance would then clearly invalidate the bullish case.
Positioning and the uncertainty that remains
The balance of evidence favors the trend, but the stall near a well-defined ceiling keeps positioning uncertain. Mixed signals of this type usually resolve violently rather than gradually.
Overall, the daily bias is constructive, the hourly regime is bullish, and the 15-minute chart is neutral and compressed. Mixed signals of this type are common near a well-defined ceiling. They usually resolve violently rather than gradually.
Still, the practical uncertainty is event risk. Much of the recent move is tied to M&A speculation and a rejected bid. This means headlines can override chart structure at any moment. Compressed ATR readings across the hourly and 15-minute charts amplify that risk. Low volatility rarely persists after a 32.5% monthly advance. Until $59.44 breaks or $58.55 gives way, PayPal PYPL stock is best understood as a waiting market. It is not one delivering information.
FAQ
What is the main trend for PayPal PYPL stock right now?
The daily trend is structurally bullish with price at $59.00 sitting above all major EMAs. However, momentum is cooling. The MACD histogram has turned negative at -0.22 while RSI sits in overbought territory at 70.58. The stock is consolidating rather than extending its advance.
Why is $60.50 such an important level for PYPL?
The board rejected a $60.50 bid, making that level both a ceiling and a magnet for price action. This rejected offer explains why the $60 area acts as strong resistance. It also keeps the stock range-bound beneath a well-defined fundamental reference point.
What are the key support and resistance levels to watch?
Resistance sits at $59.44 and the $60.00 upper Bollinger Band. Support rests at $58.55 and the daily mid-band at $57.40. A daily close above $59.44 would favor continuation toward $60.50. A break below $58.55 would shift focus toward $57.40 and potentially the $54.80 lower band.
Is the July rally in PayPal PYPL stock sustainable?
The 32.5% July surge was driven by operational improvements and M&A speculation. However, with daily RSI overbought and the MACD histogram negative, the rally’s momentum is fading. Sustainability depends on whether buyers can absorb supply above $59.44 and push through the $60.00 upper band.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

TKMS delivered one of its strongest financial updates in years, with shares jumping 14.25% to $99.40 after the German shipbuilder raised its full-year outlook for the second time in 2026. The improved guidance leans heavily on rising submarine demand and a fast-maturing surface vessel program, the TKMS MEKO A-200 frigate line, which executives now describe as central to both revenue growth and margin expansion.
Key takeaways
Sales rose 19% to 1.89 billion euros in the first nine months of FY 2025/2026, with adjusted EBIT up 13% to 110 million euros.
Full-year sales growth guidance was lifted to 10% to 12%, up from a previous range of 2% to 5%.
Adjusted EBIT margin guidance was raised to up to 6.5%, compared with the earlier target of “more than 6%.”
The submarine segment grew 17%, with sales slightly above 1 billion euros.
Order backlog now stands above 25 billion euros, boosted by a new 6.3 billion euro German Navy frigate contract.
TKMS Reports Strong Sales and Earnings Growth
TKMS closed the first nine months of its fiscal year with sales climbing 19% to 1.89 billion euros, a pace of growth the company says reflects momentum building across its shipbuilding portfolio. Adjusted EBIT rose 13% to 110 million euros over the same stretch, pushing the EBIT margin to 5.8%, up from 5.1% in the first half of the fiscal year.
That acceleration matters because it shows profitability improving faster than the top line in the second half — a signal that TKMS is converting bigger contracts into better margins rather than just chasing volume. Submarine EBIT alone jumped from 11 million euros a year earlier to 46 million euros in the third quarter, while Atlas Elektronik contributed roughly 60 million euros in EBIT at a 9.6% margin.
Upgraded Full-Year Guidance Reflects Strength Across Segments
Management lifted its full-year FY 2025/2026 guidance for the second time this year, a rare double revision that underscores how quickly order flow has strengthened. Sales growth is now projected at 10% to 12%, more than double the earlier range of 2% to 5%, and the company said the upper end of that band is the most likely outcome.
Adjusted EBIT margin guidance was similarly upgraded, moving from “more than 6%” to “up to 6.5%.” Why does that shift matter beyond the headline number? A tighter, higher margin target signals that TKMS expects new contracts — not just legacy backlog — to carry better pricing, which is exactly what a shift toward a seller’s market would produce.
Key Drivers: Submarine Segment and MEKO A-200 Frigate Program
Submarines remain the company’s most profitable engine, with the segment expanding 17% to sales slightly above 1 billion euros. CFO Paul Glaser called the performance “very good,” pointing to the segment’s outsized contribution to group profitability. CEO Oliver Burkhard added that submarines are shifting from legacy contracts to new ones faster than originally planned, driven by ramp-up progress and new site capabilities that have translated into more favorable contract terms.
Surface vessels, once expected to stay flat for the year, are now being reshaped by the TKMS MEKO A-200 program. Glaser described the platform as “a key driver for both sales and profitability going forward,” and Burkhard framed it as a strong comeback for the surface vessel unit, with production ramping up at the Wismar site alongside active recruitment. A new 6.3 billion euro German Navy frigate order tied to the program has become one of the single largest contributors to the company’s swelling backlog.
Fourth-quarter order intake is expected to lean heavily on that same platform. Management said the four German frigates tied to the TKMS MEKO A-200 program, together with smaller service orders, should push Q4 intake above 5 billion euros — a jump that would mark one of the strongest single quarters in the company’s recent history.
Order Intake, Backlog, and Cash Flow Outlook
Order intake reached 3.6 billion euros over the first nine months, lifting the total backlog above 25 billion euros once recent contract signings are included. That backlog gives TKMS multi-year revenue visibility, but Burkhard was careful to frame it as a starting point rather than the goal itself: “A large order backlog does not create shareholder value, but execution does, and this is what we’re doing,” he said.
Cash generation tells a more mixed story in the short term. Free cash flow was negative in the first nine months, a result management attributed to milestone payments tied to large contracts, but the company still expects positive free cash flow for the full year. Looking further out, Glaser said the rolling three-year average free cash flow guidance remains around 400 million euros, a figure meant to smooth out the lumpiness that comes with big defense contracts and their payment schedules.
Analysts pressed for more detail on how prepayments feed into that picture. Burkhard said prepayments are cash-positive overall and that the company does not need unusually high prepayment levels to stay cash-positive, reinforcing the case for a positive full-year result despite the negative nine-month figure.
Management Insights on Market Dynamics and Execution
Why is TKMS able to push through two guidance upgrades in a single year? Burkhard pointed to a structural change in the defense market itself. “We are not anymore in a buyer’s market. We are in a seller’s market, so terms and conditions are more favorable than they were in the past,” he said, a comment that helps explain both the margin upgrade and the improved terms on recent submarine contracts.
Management also addressed a handful of forward-looking questions without committing to hard numbers. On potential mergers and acquisitions tied to autonomous naval systems, Burkhard said TKMS is not looking to build hardware carriers itself but wants to add intelligence and sensor capability through software and systems integration, describing M&A as possible but “not critical” at this stage. On the F127 frigate program, he said a decision could surface in the first half of 2027, potentially involving a combined effort with AKKA, NVL and Rheinmetall. Executives declined to give formal FY 2027 guidance, saying it remains too early, though the CFO said an update would come once there is more clarity on long-term margin targets tied to dual-use capabilities and government approvals.
FAQ
What drove the upgrade in TKMS’s full-year sales guidance?
Stronger submarine demand, a growing backlog, and new contract wins, including a major German Navy frigate order, drove the guidance upgrade.
How is the submarine segment performing within TKMS’s business?
The submarine segment grew 17%, with sales slightly above 1 billion euros, making it a key driver of TKMS’s improved financial performance.
What is the outlook for TKMS’s free cash flow in FY 2026?
Free cash flow was negative in the first is projected to turn positive over the full year despite nine months of negative results from milestone payments.
What market conditions are benefiting TKMS currently?
TKMS management states the defense market shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market, improving terms and conditions for contracts.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Dua gambaran yang sangat berbeda tentang perlombaan kecerdasan buatan (AI) buatan manusia milik Tiongkok mulai terlihat jelas pada waktu yang bersamaan. Tencent, konglomerat bernilai sekitar $500 miliar di balik WeChat dan salah satu bisnis gim terbesar di dunia, baru saja memublikasikan pertumbuhan solid untuk kuartal berikutnya. Sementara itu, DeepSeek, perusahaan rintisan AI yang mengejutkan industri dengan model-model berbiaya murah namun berperforma tinggi, diam-diam menghentikan penggalangan dananya karena biaya menjalankan infrastruktur miliknya meningkat lebih cepat daripada rencana. Perbedaan ini banyak mengungkapkan tentang posisi belanja AI Tencent dibanding pemain yang lebih kecil dan lebih terekspos, yang berusaha tetap melaju di pasar yang sama.

Pasar kripto Rusia baru saja menyempit secara signifikan. Mulai akhir bulan ini, investor ritel di negara tersebut hanya akan bisa membeli tiga aset digital, dan itu pun hanya sampai batas jumlah tahunan tertentu, di bawah aturan batas pembelian kripto Rusia yang baru yang tengah dipersiapkan untuk disahkan oleh regulator. Bank Sentral Rusia mempublikasikan draf arahan pada 11 Agustus 2026, yang menetapkan Bitcoin, Ethereum, dan USDT milik Tether sebagai satu-satunya mata uang kripto yang diizinkan untuk dibeli oleh investor non-kualifikasi, sehingga menutup celah yang sebelumnya dibiarkan terbuka ketika Presiden Vladimir Putin menandatangani undang-undang aset digital baru negara tersebut hanya seminggu sebelumnya.

Cadangan Bitcoin di Binance diam-diam telah naik ke titik tertingginya dalam setengah tahun, dan waktu ini membuat para trader memperhatikan lebih saksama dari biasanya. Berdasarkan data dari CryptoQuant, cadangan Bitcoin Binance kini berada di sekitar 667.500 BTC, level yang tidak terlihat sejak Februari. Langkah ini terjadi pada saat setiap perubahan dalam saldo bursa mendapat sorotan untuk mencari petunjuk ke mana harga Bitcoin mungkin akan bergerak selanjutnya.
Poin-poin penting
Cadangan Bitcoin Binance telah mencapai sekitar 667.500 BTC, tertinggi sejak Februari, menurut CryptoQuant.

Siapa yang seharusnya mendapat kesempatan pertama untuk mengakses AI paling kuat di dunia—para peretas yang menguji kode Bitcoin untuk mencari kelemahan, atau para relawan yang berupaya memperbaikinya sebelum mereka menyerang? Pertanyaan ini menjadi inti dari surat terbuka baru dari Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) dan lebih dari 40 organisasi aset digital, yang mendorong pengembang Bitcoin agar memiliki akses AI yang lebih cepat ke sistem kecerdasan buatan tingkat terdepan, sementara serangan berbantuan AI terhadap infrastruktur kripto terus meningkat.
Poin-poin penting

Gold traders are holding their breath. With the U.S. Consumer Price Index report due out and expected to move markets, the metal climbed to roughly $4,400 an ounce on Wednesday, extending a rally that has investors weighing how the next reading on gold price inflation trends could reshape the Federal Reserve’s rate path. Add in a tense standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and a steady stream of Chinese central bank purchases, and gold’s latest push looks less like a fluke and more like a convergence of forces all pointing the same direction.
Key takeaways
Spot gold rose 0.7% to about $4,400.02 an ounce on Wednesday, with futures up 0.4% to $4,459.30 ahead of the U.S. CPI release.
ETF inflows into gold stretched to a fifth straight session, pushing total holdings to a six-week high.
China’s central bank added roughly 640,000 troy ounces to its reserves in July, its 21st consecutive month of buying.
Gold needs a sustained break above $4,460 and the 200-day moving average near $4,495 to open a path toward $5,000, according to IG’s Tony Sycamore.
Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz continues to unsettle energy markets, adding a geopolitical layer to the inflation story.
Gold Prices Climb Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data
Gold edged higher because traders are positioning themselves before a data release that could tilt the Federal Reserve’s next move. At around 07:22 GMT on Wednesday, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,400.02 an ounce, while I futures sull’oro statunitense hanno registrato un incremento dello 0.4% raggiungendo $4,459.30. L’argento è salito dell’1.8% a $65.88 per oncia, mentre il platino ha guadagnato lo 0.7% attestandosi a $1,755.16, showing the rally wasn’t confined to bullion alone.
Price Movements and Market Positioning
The mood among traders was cautious rather than euphoric. Markets are closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index report, which could either ease or revive expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Swaps markets had priced in roughly 50-50 odds of a quarter-point move in September, a coin-flip that keeps both gold bulls and skeptics on edge. A softer CPI print would likely take pressure off the Fed to hold rates high, supporting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset; a hotter number could do the opposite.
Investor Demand and ETF Inflows
Institutional appetite has been building alongside the spot price gains. ETF inflows into gold extended to a fifth straight session, pushing total holdings to a six-week high. That kind of sustained buying from exchange-traded funds tends to signal that professional money, not just retail speculation, is behind the move — a detail that matters for anyone trying to gauge whether the rally has staying power.
Geopolitical Tensions Support Gold Amid Energy Market Volatility
Gold’s safe-haven appeal is getting an extra boost from an unresolved standoff in one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors. Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure is keeping energy markets volatile, and that volatility is spilling directly into gold’s price action.
Strait of Hormuz Closure and Regional Diplomacy
Iran has said the waterway will remain closed until the United States lifts its blockade on Iranian ports and pays compensation for military strikes. Diplomatic movement has been reported, including talks between Iran and Oman, and Pakistan’s defense minister has suggested the U.S. and Iran were close to a deal. Even so, Iran has not shifted from its core demands, leaving the situation unresolved. Separate attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait were reported by both U.S. and Houthi forces, a U.S. Navy helicopter fired on a cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, and a drone struck a refinery in Libya — a string of incidents that keeps risk premiums elevated across energy markets.
Impact on Energy Prices and Inflation Expectations
This matters for gold because higher energy prices driven by shipping eventuali perturbazioni potrebbero esercitare pressioni al rialzo sull’inflazione, il che probabilmente indurrebbe la Fed a mantenere una posizione prudente riguardo ai tagli dei tassi. Ciò comporterebbe, di conseguenza, un aumento del costo opportunità nel detenere an asset like gold that pays no interest. In other words, the same geopolitical tension that’s rattling oil markets is feeding directly into the inflation calculus gold traders are trying to price in.
China’s Continued Gold Purchases Signal Ongoing Institutional Demand
Beyond the headlines about CPI and shipping lanes, one of the steadiest forces underpinning gold has been a central bank that keeps quietly adding to its reserves month after month.
People’s Bank of China’s Gold Reserve Increases
The People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves for a 21st straight month in July, adding roughly 640,000 troy ounces to bring total holdings to 76.08 million ounces. That kind of consistency — 21 consecutive months of buying — suggests this isn’t opportunistic trading but a longer-term strategic accumulation, likely tied to broader efforts to diversify reserves away from other currencies.
Role of China’s Gold-backed ETFs
Chinese gold-backed ETFs also continued attracting buyers, pointing to steady institutional demand that runs parallel to the central bank’s own purchases. Together, these flows reinforce the idea that demand for gold right now isn’t just a Western hedge-fund story; it’s a global one, with Chinese institutions playing an increasingly visible role.
Technical Resistance and Price Targets for Gold
Gold’s next move may hinge on whether it can clear a narrow band of resistance that has capped recent rallies. Gold faces key resistance near $4,460 to $4,495, and a break above that zone is widely seen as the trigger for a run toward $5,000.
Current Resistance Levels
Saxo Bank analysts have flagged the 200-day moving average near $4,500 as the next major hurdle after gold’s breakout above $4,200, alongside resistance clustered around $4,460. Those two levels roughly overlap, which is why traders are treating the $4,460 to $4,495 range as the real test for the metal’s near-term direction.
Market Analyst Perspectives on Future Price Movements
Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, said gold’s il recente calo da $4,435 è stato determinato da realizzi di profitti in vista del rapporto CPI, da dichiarazioni della Fed di orientamento restrittivo e dall’aumento dei prezzi energetici. Egli added that una rottura sostenuta al di sopra di $4,460 e della media mobile a 200 giorni intorno a $4,495 sarebbe necessaria per aprire il percorso verso $5,000. That framing suggests the metal is at a genuine inflection point: clear those levels and momentum could accelerate, but another round of hawkish Fed signals or a hot inflation print could just as easily send it back toward recent lows.
Producer price data due Thursday will offer markets another read on inflation before the Fed’s next meeting, giving traders one more data point to weigh alongside CPI as they decide whether gold’s climb toward $4,500 has real legs or is running into a wall of resistance it can’t yet clear.
FAQ
Why are gold prices rising ahead of the U.S. CPI release?
Gold prices rose because investors anticipate the U.S. Consumer Price Index data, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation expectations.
How does the Strait of Hormuz affect gold prices?
Tensions and closure of the Strait of Hormuz are keeping energy markets volatile, which supports gold as a safe-haven asset amid inflation concerns.
What role does China’s central bank play in the gold market?
China’s central bank has been consistently increasing its gold reserves, adding about 640,000 troy ounces in July, reflecting ongoing institutional demand.
What are the key technical levels for gold prices currently?
Gold faces resistance near $4,460 to $4,495, with $5,000 as a possible next major target if these levels are broken.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Riot Platforms Stock rejected a $9.1 billion AI infrastructure deal on 11 August. After opening at $23.57, the shares gave back a 17% after-hours surge to close at $20.24. The distribution on 76 million shares signals positioning risk rather than narrative failure.
RIOT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.
Key takeaways
Riot Platforms Stock closed at $20.24 on 11 August, surrendering a 17% after-hours surge tied to a $9.1 billion Anthropic lease deal.
Daily RSI sits at 45.09 and MACD histogram is marginally positive at +0.02, confirming a neutral regime rather than a confirmed reversal.
The 200-day EMA at $19.18 is the critical line separating a violent shakeout from a genuine trend change.
Hourly averages remain bearish with price below the 50-period EMA at $20.70 and the 200-period at $21.78.
The $21.08 daily pivot and the $20.41–$20.73 resistance zone define the near-term battle between bulls and bears.
Why the Daily Chart Keeps Riot Platforms Stock in a Neutral Regime
Riot Platforms Stock remains in a neutral daily regime. Price held above the 200-day EMA at $19.18 while closing below its shorter-term moving averages.
The structural picture is not broken. The 200-day EMA sits at $19.18, and Tuesday’s low of $19.34 held just above it. That line separates a violent shakeout from a genuine trend change. Above it, the daily regime stays neutral rather than bearish. Price is pinned between falling short-term averages and a rising long-term one.
Momentum echoes that indecision. The daily RSI at 45.09 sits just under the midpoint — soft, but nowhere near oversold. MACD remains negative at -0.72 against a -0.75 signal. Yet the histogram has flipped marginally positive at +0.02. In practice, downside momentum is decelerating without evidence of a completed bullish turn.
Volatility, meanwhile, is the dominant variable. Daily ATR at 2.40 is roughly 12% of the closing price. Bollinger Bands span $17.89 to $23.90. The 11 August range alone covered 4.32 points. Anyone framing levels here must accept an important reality. A single session can travel from the pivot to either band without changing the underlying structure.
Notably, the pivot map is clean. $21.08 acts as the fulcrum. $22.82 serves as first resistance. $18.50 marks first support. Crucially, $22.82 sits inside the gap-fade zone from Tuesday’s failed breakout. That makes it a natural supply shelf rather than a simple number.
Fundamentals cut both ways
Fundamentals present conflicting narratives for Riot Platforms Stock. Strong AI infrastructure potential is offset by ongoing operational losses and execution uncertainty.
Currently, the tape is arbitrating two conflicting stories. Q2 2026 revenue reached $174.24 million, yet the company posted a net loss of $237.17 million. That includes roughly $27.97 million of impairment charges. On the positive side, Bitcoin production rose to 1,587 coins. On the other, a 20-year contract worth $9.1 billion repositions the company as an AI infrastructure landlord.
However, the subsequent 6.1% decline tells a clear story. The market is discounting execution and dilution risk before it pays for future cash flow.
The 1H Chart Complicates the Bullish Case for Riot Platforms Stock
The 1H chart keeps Riot Platforms Stock under bearish pressure. Price remains trapped below its 50-period and 200-period EMAs despite early signs of stabilisation.
Notably, hourly structure confirms the daily caution rather than contradicting it. The 1H close of $20.23 sits fractionally above the 20-period EMA at $20.17. Still, it remains well below the 50-period at $20.70 and the 200-period at $21.78. That average stack is still bearish. Until $20.70 is reclaimed and held, rallies remain corrective in character.
At the same time, there are signs of stabilisation. Hourly RSI has recovered to 48.72. The MACD histogram is positive at +0.09. The line at -0.32 is improving toward its -0.41 signal. Price is also holding above the 1H Bollinger midline at $20.05. In short, sellers have stopped pressing, but buyers have not yet taken control.
Meanwhile, the hourly pivot cluster is unusually tight. Support sits at $20.07. The pivot is at $20.26. Resistance stands at $20.41. With 1H ATR at 0.77, that compression is likely to resolve quickly. Consolidation this narrow after a 4-point daily range usually precedes an expansion move, not a drift.
15m: Execution Context for Riot Platforms Stock
The 15-minute chart provides short-term execution context for Riot Platforms Stock. It shows the most constructive tone across all three timeframes.
On the 15-minute chart, short-term tone is the most constructive of the three. RSI at 57.23 is above the midline. The MACD line has crossed positive at 0.04 against -0.03. Price sits above both the 20-period EMA at $19.92 and the 50-period at $20.02. The 200-period EMA at $20.73 is the immediate ceiling, and it aligns closely with hourly resistance.
However, this is timing information, not thesis information. Intraday ATR of 0.28 and Bollinger bands between $19.27 and $20.49 define a narrow operating box. The 15m upper band at $20.49 and the 1H R1 at $20.41 form the same barrier from two angles.
Bullish Scenario for Riot Platforms Stock
Riot Platforms Stock turns constructive if price defends $20.07 on pullbacks and reclaims $20.73. This would open a path toward the 20-day EMA at $21.22.
Therefore, the constructive path starts with defending $20.07 and $19.88 on pullbacks. Acceptance above $20.73 would neutralise the hourly downtrend. It would also put the daily pivot at $21.08 back in play. A close above $21.22 — the 20-day EMA — would be the first real evidence that the Anthropic lease is being repriced upward rather than sold.
From there, $22.06 and the $22.82 pivot resistance become the measured objectives. The $23.90 upper daily band caps the extension. A rising daily MACD histogram and RSI pushing back above 50 would support that sequence.
Bearish Scenario for Riot Platforms Stock
Riot Platforms Stock turns bearish if price fails at the $20.41–$20.73 resistance zone. This would confirm Tuesday’s rejection as genuine distribution.
In contrast, failure at $20.41–$20.73 would confirm Tuesday’s rejection as genuine distribution. A loss of the 1H midline at $20.05 followed by a break of $19.88 would expose $19.34 quickly. Below that, the 200-day EMA at $19.18 becomes the decisive test.
A daily close beneath it would flip the regime from neutral to outright bearish. It would open the S1 pivot at $18.50, with the lower daily band at $17.89 as the extension target. The bullish case is invalidated on any sustained trade below $19.18, regardless of headlines.
Overall, this is a mixed-signal chart and it should be treated as one. The daily trend is neutral, the hourly averages remain bearish, and the 15-minute picture is mildly positive. This is a classic sign of a market still digesting new information. Macro adds another layer, with elevated oil prices tied to the Strait of Hormuz and upcoming US inflation data shaping rate expectations. With daily ATR near 2.40, position sizing matters more than direction here. The zone between $19.18 and $21.22 defines the argument. Whoever wins it sets the next trend in Riot Platforms Stock.
FAQ
What caused Riot Platforms Stock to drop despite the Anthropic deal announcement?
Riot Platforms Stock opened at $23.57 after announcing a $9.1 billion, 20-year data center lease with Anthropic for 191 megawatts at its Rockdale, Texas site. Despite the transformative headline, price unwound the entire move to close at $20.24 on 76.06 million shares. The market appears to be discounting execution and dilution risk ahead of future cash flows from the AI infrastructure pivot.
What is the most important technical level for Riot Platforms Stock right now?
The 200-day EMA at $19.18 is the line separating a violent shakeout from a genuine trend change. A daily close below it would flip the regime from neutral to outright bearish. It would then open support at $18.50, with the lower daily Bollinger band at $17.89 as the extension target.
What needs to happen for Riot Platforms Stock to turn bullish?
Price must first defend $20.07 and $19.88 on pullbacks. Acceptance above $20.73 would neutralise the hourly downtrend. A close above the 20-day EMA at $21.22 would be the first real evidence the Anthropic lease is being repriced upward. From there, $22.06 and $22.82 become the measured objectives.
What is the daily ATR and why does it matter for Riot Platforms Stock?
Daily ATR sits at 2.40, roughly 12% of the closing price. This elevated volatility means a single session can travel from the pivot to either Bollinger band without changing the underlying structure. Position sizing matters more than direction in this environment.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, an investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument or cryptocurrency. The analysis provided is not indicative of future results. Investing in crypto assets and financial markets carries a high risk of capital loss. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.

Bitcoin terjebak dalam pola penahanan yang sudah familiar, Ethereum terus melayang di dalam kisaran yang sempit, dan namun semua mata di sudut altcoin pasar tertuju pada satu token: LINK. Aset asli Chainlink berada di area dukungan kritis yang digambarkan analis, dan situasinya membuat para trader bertanya apakah lonjakan bullish LINK yang nyata akhirnya mulai terbentuk setelah bertahun-tahun kinerja altcoin yang kurang memuaskan.
Poin-poin penting
BTC diperdagangkan menyamping dalam kisaran $63.000-$65.000 sementara Ethereum bertahan di antara $1.800 dan $1.900.