According to data from the @CMEGroup #FedWatchTool, the likelihood of an interest rate hike has grown by 10 percentage points since yesterday, rising from 67% up to 77%.
The November survey results from @UMich show that one-year #inflation expectations have arrived at +4.3%, trailing both the projected +4.6% and the previous mark of +4.7%. Meanwhile, projections for the five-to-ten-year horizon registered at +3.4%, edging down slightly against the estimated +3.5% and prior +3.5% figures.
It has been an eventful stretch across the financial markets. The newest installment of the #OnInvesting podcast is officially available. In this episode, @CollinMartinCS and I break down the recent election outcomes, ongoing developments in the artificial intelligence trade, sector rotations, and inflationary pressures, as well as expectations for bond markets and interest rates. Additionally, I had the pleasure of sitting down with my co-authors, Jenny Harrington and Rebecca Patterson, to share insights on our newly released book.
Explore the links below for details on the publication and to listen to the full episode:
Consumer confidence showed solid gains in November, according to the latest data from @UMich. The overall Consumer Sentiment reading climbed to 51.0, outperforming both the projected 48.0 and the 48.0 recorded in the prior month. Assessments of current conditions also strengthened, advancing to 51.0 against an anticipated 47.0 and up from 46.7 the previous month. At the same time, the measure for expectations improved to 50.9, surpassing both the estimated 49.0 and the prior month mark of 48.8.
Job gains in the manufacturing sector reached 19k for October, coming in well ahead of the anticipated 7k figure. Meanwhile, the previous count was revised upward to 13k from an initial 9k.
In October, the total for individuals facing temporary layoffs (orange) dropped to 766k, while the count of workers experiencing permanent job loss (blue) decreased to 1.733m.
During October, the share of job seekers without work for longer than 27 weeks climbed to 27.6 percent, reflecting a modest increase from the previous reading of 27.1 percent.
In October, the overall labor force participation rate increased to 61.9% (blue line). Breaking it down by gender, the rate for men climbed to 67.3% (orange line), while the figure for women also edged higher to 56.9% (purple line).
For the month of October, nonfarm payrolls rose by 165k, coming in well ahead of the estimated 70k. Additionally, the previous month was revised upward to 60k from an initial 29k.
During October, average hourly earnings expanded by 3.1% year-over-year. This performance surpassed expectations of a 2.9% rise, while edging down from the 3.2% pace recorded in the prior month.
In October, average hourly earnings grew by 0.4% on a month-over-month basis, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, the prior reading was adjusted upward to 0.3% from the initially reported 0.1%.
Menilik sesi perdagangan pasar yang berat kemarin, beserta kinerja sejak awal bulan dan awal tahun di berbagai sektor dan indeks utama, mengungkapkan tren yang menarik. Dalam perdagangan kemarin, sektor Teknologi menjadi satu-satunya sektor yang kinerjanya tertinggal dari S&P 500, sementara 10 sektor lainnya masing-masing mengungguli indeks pasar yang lebih luas.