Dmex01

$BTC is currently trading around 78,360 USDT, showing clear signs of weakness on the daily chart. The overall market structure remains bearish, as BTC continues to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are still in control. At the moment, patience and confirmation are more important than rushing into trades. Trend & Moving Averages BTC is trading below all major moving averages, which confirms a strong downtrend:
MA(7): ~84,700MA(25): ~89,800MA(99): ~92,900The price being below MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99) shows that short-term, mid-term, and long-term momentum are all bearish. Additionally, MA(7) has crossed downward, which often signals continued selling pressure unless the price reclaims this level quickly.Key Support LevelsSupport zones are critical for identifying potential buying opportunities:75,700 – 76,000 USDT. This is a strong demand zone where price has already reacted. Buyers may attempt to defend this level.72,000 – 73,000 USDTIf the first support breaks, this zone becomes the next potential accumulation area.68,000 – 70,000 USDTA major weekly support zone.
If BTC reaches this area, long-term buyers are likely to show interest. Resistance Levels will face strong resistance at the following levels:80,000 – 81,000 USDT84,500 – 85,000 USDT (near MA(7))90,000+ USDT (trend reversal zone)A daily close above these resistance levels is required to shift market sentiment from bearish to bullish.Volume AnalysisRecent candles show high red volume, which indicates panic selling. However, the latest candles show decreasing volume, suggesting that selling pressure may be slowing down. This often happens near support zones and can lead to a short-term bounce, but volume confirmation is still needed.Buy StrategiesStrategy
1: Support-Based Buy (Aggressive)Buy only if BTC holds above 75,700 and shows rejection from this zone. Entry: 76,000 – 77,000Stop Loss: Below 74,800Targets: 82,000 – 84,000, then 88,000Strategy 2: Confirmation Buy (Safer)Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
Conditions:Daily candle closes above 80,500Price reclaims MA(7)Entry: 80,500 – 81,000Targets: 85,000 → 89,000Risk Management & DCA PlanFor spot traders, a DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy reduces risk:30% at 76k30% at 73k40% at 70k (only if price drops)Avoid using high leverage and never invest full capital in one entry.
Final Verdict BTC remains in a downtrend, but it is approaching a strong support zone. This is not a confirmed buy yet. The safest approach is to either buy near support with confirmation or wait for a breakout above 80.5k. In current conditions, patience and risk management are key to long-term success.
$BTC

($BTC)
Bitcoin the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, failed to hold its early January recovery momentum as sellers took control toward the month’s close. After printing a monthly high near $97,000, BTC reversed sharply and ended January 31, 2026, with a deep wick toward $75,722, marking a 6.20% decline in the last 24 hours and roughly a 10% drop year-to-date, while also setting a fresh yearly low.The sudden downside move rattled market sentiment and triggered heavy forced selling across the crypto market. In the last 24 hours alone, total crypto liquidations surged to nearly $2.58 billion, highlighting how overcrowded bullish positioning had become.Source: CoinmarketcapBitcoin Spot ETF slumps in JanuaryAccording to the latest data from SoSoValue, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.61 billion in January 2026, marking one of the weakest monthly performances since approval.Despite the outflows, cumulative net inflows still stand strong near $55.01 billion, with total net assets around $106.96 billion.
However, the January data clearly shows that institutional demand cooled significantly during the month, adding pressure to BTC’s price action and accelerating the correction.Source: SosovalueHistorically, sharp ETF outflow months often coincide with local fear phases, rather than long-term trend reversals — especially when broader market structure remains intact.Key bullish fractal to watch outLooking at the latest fractal comparison chart shared by crypto analyst Benjamin, Bitcoin’s current structure appears to mirror previous consolidation phases seen in major risk assets like Google (GOOG) and NVIDIA (NVDA) before their continuation rallies.On the weekly timeframe, BTC is still respecting its broader uptrend while pulling back toward a critical horizontal demand zone near $74,494. In past cycles, similar corrective moves — following strong impulsive rallies — have acted as reset phases, allowing the market to absorb supply before pushing higher.Bitcoin (BTC) Fractal Chart/Credits: @intocryptoverse (X)This fractal suggests that the ongoing pullback could be a healthy consolidation, rather than the start of a prolonged bearish trend, as long as BTC continues to defend this key support region.
What February could hold for BitcoinIf Bitcoin manages to hold above the $74,494 support, buyers may gradually step back in as selling pressure exhausts. A stabilization above this level could open the door for a renewed upside attempt toward the $85,000–$90,000 region in February.However, a decisive breakdown below $74,494 would weaken the bullish fractal narrative and could expose $BTC to deeper downside, potentially extending the correction.For now, Bitcoin enters February at a crucial inflection point — shaken by ETF outflows and mass liquidations, yet still holding a structure that bulls will be watching very closely.

Jatuhnya pasar kripto mempercepat selama akhir pekan, dengan Bitcoin bergerak di bawah level dukungan kunci di $80.000 untuk pertama kalinya dalam beberapa bulan. Ia diperdagangkan pada $78.678 pada hari Minggu, turun tajam dari titik tertinggi sepanjang masa sebesar $126.300. Harga Ethereum jatuh menjadi $2.400, sementara Binance Coin (BNB) turun menjadi $770. Kapitalisasi pasar semua token turun lebih dari 5,80% dalam 24 jam terakhir menjadi $2,67 triliun.
Artikel ini mengeksplorasi beberapa alasan utama di balik jatuhnya pasar kripto yang sedang berlangsung. Jatuhnya pasar kripto terjadi setelah Trump menominasikan Kevin Warsh. Salah satu alasan utama di balik jatuhnya pasar kripto yang sedang berlangsung adalah bahwa Donald Trump menominasikan Kevin Warsh untuk menjadi Ketua Federal Reserve berikutnya ketika masa jabatan Jerome Powell berakhir pada bulan Mei. Warsh baru-baru ini mendukung industri kripto. Namun, dukungannya mungkin karena ia sangat menginginkan pekerjaan sebagai Ketua Federal Reserve karena sebelumnya ia telah menyerang industri tersebut. Hal yang sama berlaku untuk pandangannya tentang suku bunga. Dalam wawancara terbarunya, ia telah menunjukkan dukungannya untuk suku bunga yang lebih rendah. Namun, dalam kenyataannya, Warsh selalu menjadi pendukung suku bunga dan inflasi. Ia memberikan suara menentang pemotongan suku bunga dan kebijakan pelonggaran kuantitatif pada tahun 2011. Yang paling penting, ia selalu mempertahankan penentangannya terhadap pelonggaran kuantitatif. Oleh karena itu, para analis percaya bahwa Warsh akan mempertahankan pandangan hawkish ketika ia pindah ke Federal Reserve sama seperti yang dilakukan Jerome Powell. Likuidasi yang meningkat memicu jatuhnya kripto. Alasan utama lainnya untuk jatuhnya pasar kripto adalah likuidasi yang melonjak dan minat terbuka futures yang menurun. Data yang dikompilasi oleh CoinGlass menunjukkan bahwa minat terbuka futures turun sebesar 10% dalam 24 jam terakhir menjadi $113 miliar. Pada saat yang sama, likuidasi melonjak sebesar 348% dalam 24 jam terakhir menjadi lebih dari $2,5 miliar, peningkatan terbesar dalam beberapa bulan. Likuidasi Ethereum melonjak menjadi lebih dari $1,1 miliar, sementara Bitcoin naik menjadi lebih dari $785 juta. Posisi Solana senilai lebih dari $197 juta, sementara posisi XRP senilai $61 juta dilikuidasi. Likuidasi ini mengingatkan kembali pada 10 Oktober ketika pasar kripto mengalami likuidasi terbesar yang pernah ada. Posisi senilai lebih dari $20 miliar dihapus pada 10 Oktober ketika Donald Trump mengancam akan memberlakukan tarif pada China.

Trust Bitcoin iShares BlackRock (IBIT) adalah ETF bitcoin spot yang memberikan investor paparan terhadap harga bitcoin tanpa memiliki BTC secara langsung. Dana ini menyimpan bitcoin dalam penyimpanan dingin melalui Coinbase Prime dan terdaftar untuk diperdagangkan di bursa NASDAQ. IBIT menawarkan likuiditas, pengawasan regulasi, dan kesederhanaan bagi investor, meskipun kinerjanya dapat dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi harga bitcoin dan biaya manajemen yang berkelanjutan. Apa Itu ETF Bitcoin Spot? Dana yang diperdagangkan di bursa (ETF) adalah kendaraan investasi yang mengumpulkan dana dari investor untuk membeli dan memegang portofolio aset, seperti saham, obligasi, komoditas, atau aset digital. ETF diperdagangkan di bursa saham publik sepanjang hari, menawarkan likuiditas, transparansi, dan aksesibilitas. Mereka memungkinkan investor untuk mendapatkan paparan terhadap berbagai pasar tanpa harus mengelola aset yang mendasarinya sendiri. ETF bitcoin spot menerapkan konsep yang sama ini pada bitcoin. Alih-alih memegang aset tradisional, ia mengikuti harga bitcoin dan memungkinkan investor untuk berpartisipasi dalam pasarnya melalui platform keuangan yang diatur. Ada dua jenis utama ETF bitcoin: ETF Spot: Memegang bitcoin yang sebenarnya dalam kustodi untuk mencerminkan harga pasar. ETF Futures: Mengikuti harga kontrak berjangka bitcoin yang diperdagangkan di bursa yang diatur, alih-alih memegang bitcoin secara langsung. Setiap saham dari ETF bitcoin spot mewakili sebagian bitcoin yang dipegang oleh dana, yang disimpan oleh kustodian yang diatur. Harga saham bergerak sejalan dengan nilai pasar bitcoin, menawarkan investor cara yang akrab dan diatur untuk mendapatkan paparan terhadap bitcoin. ETF bitcoin spot menerima persetujuan regulasi di Amerika Serikat pada Januari 2024, menandai tonggak penting untuk integrasi aset digital ke dalam keuangan tradisional. Paparan langsung mereka terhadap harga bitcoin, ditambah dengan pengawasan regulasi, telah menarik minat yang semakin meningkat dari investor ritel dan institusi yang mencari cara sederhana dan sesuai untuk berinvestasi dalam bitcoin. Siapa Itu BlackRock? BlackRock adalah perusahaan manajemen aset global yang berkantor pusat di New York. Didirikan pada tahun 1988, perusahaan ini menyediakan berbagai produk investasi dan layanan keuangan, termasuk ETF, reksa dana, dan solusi manajemen portofolio. Perusahaan ini bekerja dengan klien institusional dan individu di berbagai pasar dan dianggap sebagai salah satu peserta utama dalam industri investasi global. Trust Bitcoin iShares BlackRock Trust Bitcoin iShares (IBIT) adalah ETF bitcoin spot yang diluncurkan oleh BlackRock, salah satu perusahaan manajemen aset terkemuka di dunia. Disetujui oleh Komisi Sekuritas dan Bursa AS (SEC) pada 11 Januari 2024, IBIT mulai diperdagangkan tak lama setelahnya di NASDAQ, bursa saham utama AS. Ini memungkinkan investor untuk mendapatkan paparan terhadap pergerakan harga bitcoin dengan membeli dan menjual saham melalui akun pialang standar. BlackRock awalnya mengajukan aplikasinya kepada SEC pada 15 Juni 2023, dan menerima persetujuan tujuh bulan kemudian. Keputusan SEC menandai tonggak penting bagi sektor kripto dan keuangan tradisional, menyetujui 11 ETF bitcoin spot pada hari yang sama. Sejak peluncurannya, IBIT telah melihat pertumbuhan yang cepat dan permintaan investor yang kuat. Dana ini melampaui $1 miliar dalam aset dalam minggu pertama perdagangannya dan sejak itu menjadi ETF bitcoin terbesar secara global. Pada Oktober 2025, IBIT memegang lebih dari 800.000 BTC, yang mewakili sekitar 3,8% dari total pasokan bitcoin. Bagaimana IBIT Bekerja Struktur dan manajemen IBIT menggunakan sistem penciptaan dan penebusan untuk menjaga harga sahamnya tetap selaras dengan harga aktual bitcoin. Ketika lebih banyak investor membeli saham IBIT, saham baru diterbitkan, dan hasilnya digunakan untuk membeli bitcoin tambahan. Ketika investor menjual, dana dapat menjual sebagian dari kepemilikan bitcoinnya untuk memberikan likuiditas. Proses ini membantu memastikan bahwa harga pasar ETF mencerminkan nilai bitcoin yang mendasarinya dengan akurat. Dana ini mengenakan biaya manajemen sebesar 0,25% per tahun, yang mencakup biaya operasional dan administratif. Kustodi dan keamanan BlackRock bekerja sama dengan Coinbase Custody Trust Company, yang juga dikenal sebagai Coinbase Prime, untuk menyimpan bitcoin dana tersebut. Aset disimpan dalam penyimpanan dingin, yang berarti mereka disimpan sepenuhnya offline untuk meminimalkan risiko peretasan atau akses yang tidak sah. Bitcoin IBIT disimpan di dompet terpisah, terpisah dari kepemilikan Coinbase sendiri, memastikan kepemilikan yang jelas dan transparansi. Setiap dompet diamankan dengan otorisasi tanda tangan ganda, yang memerlukan beberapa persetujuan untuk setiap transfer. Audit keamanan siber secara rutin juga dilakukan untuk membantu menjaga integritas dan keamanan aset dana. Investor yang memegang saham IBIT tidak perlu mengelola kunci pribadi bitcoin atau penyimpanan secara langsung, karena kustodian ETF mengawasi semua proses keamanan dan pemulihan. Penetapan harga acuan Untuk melacak harga bitcoin dengan akurat, IBIT menggunakan CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR). Acuan ini menghitung rata-rata harian harga bitcoin dari beberapa bursa cryptocurrency utama. Ini membantu mencegah fluktuasi harga sementara atau ketidakberesan di satu bursa mempengaruhi nilai keseluruhan ETF. Fitur Utama Aksesibilitas: IBIT memberikan investor paparan terhadap bitcoin melalui akun pialang tradisional, menghilangkan kebutuhan akan dompet atau kustodi kripto secara langsung. Likuiditas: Sebagai salah satu ETF bitcoin yang paling aktif diperdagangkan, IBIT menawarkan likuiditas yang dalam dan eksekusi harga yang efisien. Infrastruktur yang diatur: Dikelola oleh BlackRock di bawah pengawasan SEC, IBIT beroperasi dalam kerangka yang transparan dan sesuai dengan Coinbase sebagai kustodian yang diatur. Kustodi dan keamanan: Semua bitcoin yang mendukung IBIT disimpan offline dalam penyimpanan dingin Coinbase Custody. Aset dilindungi melalui dompet terpisah, otorisasi tanda tangan ganda, dan audit keamanan secara rutin. Risiko dan Pertimbangan Sementara IBIT menyediakan cara alternatif dan diatur untuk mendapatkan paparan bitcoin, penting untuk memahami risiko yang melekat: Volatilitas pasar: Bitcoin tetap sangat volatil, sehingga investor ETF terpapar pada pergerakan harganya. Perubahan regulasi: Pembaruan mendatang terhadap undang-undang cryptocurrency atau regulasi keuangan dapat mempengaruhi cara ETF bitcoin beroperasi atau dikenakan pajak. Risiko kustodi dan pihak ketiga: Bitcoin yang dipegang oleh IBIT disimpan oleh Coinbase Custody. Meskipun diatur dan memiliki langkah-langkah keamanan yang kuat, tidak ada sistem yang sepenuhnya bebas dari risiko. Implikasi pajak: Keuntungan dari penjualan saham IBIT mungkin dikenakan pajak keuntungan modal, serupa dengan kepemilikan bitcoin langsung. Perlakuan pajak yang tepat akan bergantung pada regulasi masing-masing negara dan dapat bervariasi menurut yurisdiksi.

Bitcoin has experienced a major capitulation move, crashing aggressively from the 84k region down to the 75,500 support, where heavy volume and long downside wicks appeared. This type of move signals panic selling and seller exhaustion, not a healthy continuation dump. Since touching that low, $BTC has stabilized and is now trading back above 78k, showing that buyers are stepping in and defending the lower zone. At the moment, Bitcoin is not in a confirmed bullish trend, but it is also no longer in free fall. The market is transitioning into a post-crash recovery and consolidation phase. Price is currently holding inside the 77,500–79,500 range, which is acting as a balance area. As long as BTC stays above 77,000, the probability favors continued sideways-to-up recovery rather than another immediate collapse.On the upside, if BTC can hold this base and push higher, the next resistance zones sit at 80,500–81,200, followed by a major supply zone at 83,000–84,000. These levels are expected to attract strong selling pressure again, so upside moves should be traded cautiously with partial profit-taking. This is still a recovery move, not a trend reversal.On the downside, losing 77,000 would weaken the structure and expose 75,500 again. A clean break below that level would invalidate the recovery and open deeper downside toward the low-70k region.What to do now:Longs should only be considered above support with tight risk and modest targets. Shorts should not be added near current support and are better planned near resistance. If you are flat, patience is key — the best trades will come after confirmation, not inside this decision zone. Right now, Bitcoin is in a high-volatility transition phase, where risk management matters more than direction.#BitcoinETFWatch #MarketCorrection Trade #BTC Here 👇👇👇
BTCUSDTPerp78,673.8-6.44%

How Whales Look at the Monthly Close @ Monthly Close Theories1. A close above 89.400 is positive, indicating a potential rise to 103.700. This positivity is confirmed by a hold above 91.700, followed by a rise to 95.750.Second Theory2. A close and hold at 86.400 suggests sideways movement. This anticipates a potential drop to 74 and 69. The movement would then be sideways within a range of 88.400 to 83.370. The holdout level must remain stable at 86.400. This would lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's holdings to the 58.55 area. It would also give altcoins a three-week rally until Bitcoin consolidates. Third Theory @3. This is the most dangerous and comprehensive scenario: a clear monthly close below 86.400 would signal a decline in holdings. To 57.30The swing is confirmed to levels of 69, 66, and 62, from which it rebounds, coinciding with Ethereum's drop to 2.270.This timeframe theory is limited to ten days. Its purpose is to eliminate short-term traders and provide consolidation zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum whales. If I were the market maker, I would use theory number 3.

$BTC

menurun tajam pada hari Senin, sementara turun sebentar ke zona $86.000 saat tekanan jual meningkat di seluruh pasar. Pergerakan ini memperpanjang minggu sulit bagi cryptocurrency terbesar, yang kini turun mendekati 10% dalam tujuh hari terakhir, menurut data pasar. Meskipun ada aktivitas pembelian yang berat di bursa derivatif, aksi harga gagal untuk stabil, menyoroti ketegangan yang berkembang antara trader agresif dan sentimen pasar yang lebih luas.
Poin PentingBitcoin jatuh ke area $86.000 saat kerugian mingguan semakin dalam dan volatilitas meningkat. Likuidasi panjang yang berat dan ketidakseimbangan sisi beli yang ekstrem menunjukkan posisi bullish yang terlalu padat. Indikator teknis menunjukkan melemahnya momentum, dengan pemulihan tergantung pada pengambilan kembali level di atas $90.000. Penurunan ini disertai dengan lonjakan volatilitas yang jelas. Bitcoin diperdagangkan sekitar $86.400 pada saat penulisan, turun lebih dari 3% pada hari itu, sementara volume harian melonjak saat trader bergegas untuk memposisikan ulang. Kapitalisasi pasar juga jatuh di bawah puncak terbaru, memperkuat rasa bahwa momentum telah berubah rapuh dalam jangka pendek.

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 has surged to approximately 78%, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. According to NS3.AI, this development has caused a significant drop in crypto market sentiment, which has fallen to 'Extreme Fear' on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Concerns over delayed economic data and increased market volatility are contributing to this sentiment.Historically, precious metals have shown strong rallies during government shutdowns, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin tend to experience increased volatility and downside risk. Investors are closely monitoring these trends as the situation unfolds.

Guys, $BTC rejected sharply from the $98K zone and is now trading near $90K after bouncing from $87K. This move has left the market divided — was this just a healthy reset, or is another drop coming first? Let’s break it down in a clean, simple way.
Market Structure & price Action The rejection at $98K wasn’t random. That level acted as a classic bull trap, catching late longs who expected an instant push to $100K. Once price lost $90K, that former support flipped into resistance. As long as BTC stays below this zone on higher timeframes, bears control the short-term trend. A strong 4H close back above $90K is required to shift momentum.Why Did Bitcoin Dump? This sell-off wasn’t driven by technicals alone. Rising geopolitical tension and new tariff headlines triggered uncertainty across risk markets. Algorithms reacted instantly, followed by emotional selling from retail traders. Despite the negative news, the bounce from $87K shows the market views this as short-term political noise, not a fundamental breakdown.
On-Chain Reality CheckThis move flushed excess leverage. Over $600M in long positions were wiped out in a single day, resetting open interest and removing weak hands. While leveraged traders were forced out, spot buyers stepped in aggressively around $87K. Smart money used fear as an entry opportunity.
What Comes Next?There are two clear paths forward:
Bullish ScenarioA confirmed reclaim and 4H close above $90K would signal strength. If support flips back in favor of buyers, price could move quickly toward $94K due to low resistance above.
Bearish ScenarioRepeated rejection at $90K would likely send $BTC back to retest the $87K demand zone. That area remains critical for maintaining the broader structure.
Final ThoughtLeverage has been cleaned out. Fear-driven news is already priced in. Now the market waits for confirmation. Don’t chase — let price show direction. Patience here will outperform prediction.
$BTC

Bitcoin is experiencing unprecedented selling activity from long-term holders, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. According to Cointelegraph, the trend of selling by these holders began well below current price levels, distinguishing this bull market from previous ones. Over the past two years, Bitcoin long-term holders have set records with their sales, indicating a price cycle and investor transition underway.Research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights the ongoing sales of significantly older coins during this bull market. Unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) involving Bitcoin that had been dormant for two years or more have surged since 2024.
Contributor Kripto Mevsimi noted that 2024 and 2025 have recorded the highest annual revived supply from long-term holders in Bitcoin's history. This data rivals the distribution seen at the end of the 2017 bull market when Bitcoin reached $20,000. Unlike previous cycles, the current revival is occurring with lower market noise but involves significantly older coins.CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin's long-term holders are reassessing their market exposure, a trend that began when prices surpassed $40,000. Early 2026 data does not yet indicate a full reversal of this trend, but revived long-term supply has moderated compared to the peaks of 2024–2025. Kripto Mevsimi speculates whether this represents temporary exhaustion or the start of a new accumulation phase, which will become clearer as the year progresses.As Cointelegraph reported, the activity of long-term holders bringing dormant coins to market has become a major discussion point recently. Bitcoin's underperformance compared to other major asset classes from Q4 2025 onward has raised questions about how the coming year might differ from previous price cycles. With 2026 anticipated to be a bear market year, forecasts suggest a return to much lower levels than the current $90,000. The validity of the four-year price cycle is also debated among market participants.
Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle but potentially a transition in who holds it and why. Long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of this shift, according to CryptoQuant. This evolving dynamic in the Bitcoin market underscores the changing landscape and the potential for new patterns in investor behavior.
$BTC

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Compass Point’s Crucial $98K Warning Demands Investor CautionIn a significant move for cryptocurrency investors, the U.S. investment bank Compass Point has issued a clear warning regarding Bitcoin’s recent volatility. The firm now advises extreme caution against buying the dips until the premier digital asset can decisively reclaim the $98,000 price level. This guidance, reported by Decrypt on October 26, 2025, stems from a detailed analysis of on-chain data and short-term holder behavior, marking a pivotal moment for market sentiment.Bitcoin Price Analysis: The $98,000 Psychological ThresholdCompass Point’s analysis identifies the $98,000 mark not as a random number, but as the calculated average purchase price for Bitcoin’s short-term holders. These investors, typically holding assets for less than 155 days, exhibit heightened sensitivity to price movements. Consequently, their collective cost basis creates a formidable zone of resistance and psychological pressure. When the price trades below this average, short-term holders are statistically more likely to sell during downturns to avoid losses, thereby amplifying selling pressure. The bank’s research indicates that until Bitcoin sustains a break above this level, the risk of further declines remains elevated, making aggressive dip-buying a perilous strategy.This framework provides crucial context for Bitcoin’s recent price action. In late October 2025, BTC staged a rally that pushed it to approximately $97,500, tantalizingly close to the key threshold. However, the asset failed to achieve a weekly close above $98,000, triggering a rejection that sent prices tumbling below $90,000. This event perfectly illustrates the technical and behavioral significance of the level Compass Point highlighted. Market analysts often refer to such levels as “on-chain resistance,” where previous investor entry points create a supply overhang.Understanding Short-Term Holder Psychology and Market ImpactThe focus on short-term holder (STH) cost basis represents a sophisticated shift in market analysis. Unlike long-term “HODLers,” short-term holders are often driven by momentum and sentiment. Their aggregate cost basis acts as a collective breakeven point. When the market price dips below it, a segment of these holders may panic-sell, converting paper losses into realized losses. This activity can create cascading sell-offs, especially in a market where leveraged positions are common. Compass Point’s warning directly addresses this dynamic, suggesting that stability above $98,000 would signal that the majority of recent buyers are in profit, potentially reducing urgent selling pressure and creating a healthier foundation for an advance.Historical Precedents and Current Market ParallelsThis pattern is not without historical precedent. Similar analysis of holder cost basis proved insightful during previous market cycles. For instance, during the 2021 bull run, the realized price for short-term holders often acted as support during healthy corrections and as resistance during bear market rallies. The current advice mirrors risk-management strategies employed by institutional analysts in traditional finance, where understanding the average entry point of the “weak hands” is key to gauging market stamina. The integration of such on-chain metrics into mainstream investment banking commentary, as seen with Compass Point, underscores the maturation of cryptocurrency market analysis.Furthermore, the bank’s note contextualizes potential future scenarios. While a deeper correction toward the $80,000 region could present a more attractive risk-reward entry point for some investors, Compass Point simultaneously warns of persistent risks. The primary concern revolves around leveraged purchasing. A market saturated with leverage is vulnerable to violent liquidations if prices move unexpectedly, which can exacerbate volatility and turn a routine correction into a steep plunge. Therefore, the bank implies that any buying activity, even at lower prices, should be approached with disciplined risk management and an awareness of overall market leverage.The Broader 2025 Cryptocurrency Landscape and Institutional InfluenceThe issuance of this guidance occurs within a specific 2025 financial landscape. Regulatory clarity in major economies like the U.S. and the E.U. has progressed, leading to deeper institutional participation. Firms like Compass Point now play a more influential role in shaping retail and institutional investor behavior through published research. Their analyses are closely watched for signals about how traditional finance interprets blockchain data. This particular report highlights the growing convergence between technical on-chain analysis and conventional fundamental risk assessment, setting a new standard for how investment banks evaluate digital asset opportunities.Other market factors contribute to the current environment. The integration of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the evolution of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and macroeconomic conditions like interest rates all interact with price levels identified by on-chain metrics. Compass Point’s caution serves as a reminder that despite advanced financial products and adoption, core market mechanics—like investor cost basis and leverage—remain paramount. For traders, this means complementing price chart analysis with a firm understanding of blockchain-derived supply dynamics.ConclusionCompass Point’s advisory to avoid aggressive Bitcoin dip-buying below $98,000 provides a critical, data-driven framework for navigating current market uncertainty. By pinpointing the short-term holder cost basis as a key resistance level, the analysis moves beyond simple chart patterns to incorporate behavioral economics and on-chain reality. While potential buying opportunities may emerge at lower prices, the overarching message emphasizes caution, disciplined risk assessment, and respect for leverage-related dangers. This Bitcoin price analysis from a established investment bank underscores the maturation of crypto markets, where sophisticated, evidence-based reasoning is essential for informed investment decisions in 2025 and beyond.
FAQsQ1: What is the $98,000 level that Compass Point is referring to?The $98,000 level represents the average purchase price, or aggregate cost basis, for Bitcoin investors classified as short-term holders (those holding for roughly less than five months). It’s a key on-chain metric that indicates a major psychological and resistance level.
Q2: Why are short-term holders so important for Bitcoin’s price?Short-term holders are typically more reactive to price changes than long-term investors. When the price falls below their average cost basis, they are more likely to sell to cut losses, which can increase selling pressure and drive the price down further.
Q3: Does Compass Point say not to buy Bitcoin at all?No. The advice is specifically to exercise caution with “dip-buying”—aggressively purchasing during declines—until the $98,000 level is reclaimed. The bank suggests a deeper correction to around $80,000 could be a buying opportunity, but warns of risks from high leverage in the market.
Q4: What are the risks of leveraged purchasing mentioned in the analysis?Leveraged purchasing involves using borrowed funds to amplify trades. If the price moves against these highly leveraged positions, it can trigger automatic liquidations, creating a cascade of forced selling that dramatically worsens a price drop.

Q5: How does this type of analysis affect the average cryptocurrency investor?It highlights the importance of looking beyond simple price charts. Understanding on-chain metrics like holder cost basis can provide deeper insight into market sentiment and potential support/resistance levels, helping investors make more informed decisions about entry points and risk management.This post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Compass Point’s Crucial $98K Warning Demands Investor Caution first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
$BTC

$BTC

While headlines scream volatility, institutions are doing the opposite
— quietly stacking BTC. Wallets holding 100–1,000 Bitcoin (excluding miners and exchanges) continue to grow, offering one of the cleanest reads on real institutional demand — ETFs included.
The numbers are staggering: 577,000 BTC added in just the past year, worth roughly $53 BILLION at current prices. And the flow hasn’t slowed.
This isn’t short-term trading capital. This is custody-grade Bitcoin being parked for the long haul. Institutions don’t accumulate like this for quick flips
— they position ahead of structural moves.
Retail panics.
Institutions absorb.
That divergence usually doesn’t last forever.
If this pace continues, the supply available to the open market keeps shrinking — and price eventually has to respond.
Are you watching price… or watching who’s buying?
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#Bitcoin #Institutions #Crypto

Bitcoin menghadapi tekanan turun yang diperbarui setelah gagal mempertahankan breakout kunci, dengan sinyal teknis sekarang mengarah pada kemungkinan pergerakan menuju level di bawah $60.000, menurut beberapa analis. BTC merosot ke level terendah delapan hari mendekati $90.000 pada hari Selasa saat pasar mencerna meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik dan melemahnya struktur teknis, membuat bulls kembali bertahan.
Poin-poin penting
Bitcoin telah kembali ke rentang perdagangan multi-bulannya setelah upaya breakout yang gagal. Sebuah death cross mingguan baru telah terbentuk, yang secara historis terkait dengan dasar makro. Analis memperingatkan BTC bisa mengunjungi $58.000–$62.000 jika dukungan gagal.