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Ketakutan Ekstrem Menarik BTC Turun

Ketakutan Ekstrem Menarik BTC Turun Penutupan mingguan di bawah $60K atau di atas $70K?
BTC
3.74%

· 9 jam
Aksi BTC$BTC minggu ini cukup menggambarkan, bukan karena bullish, tetapi karena mencerminkan kelelahan sentimen.

Kami baru saja melihat Indeks Ketakutan dan Keserakahan Kripto di CoinMarketCap mencapai beberapa level terendah tahun ini, dan selama 90 hari terakhir hampir tidak bergerak dari pesimisme ekstrem.

Kemarin: Ketakutan Ekstrem - 8

Minggu Lalu: Ketakutan Ekstrem - 5

Pada 15 Desember 2018, BTC mencapai level terendah $3,023 sementara Indeks Ketakutan & Keserakahan mencatat 11.

@Fogo Official
We just saw the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on CoinMarketCap hit some of its lowest levels of the year, and over the last 90 days has barely budged out of extreme pessimism.

Yesterday: Extreme Fear - 8

Last Week: Extreme Fear - 5

On December 15, 2018, BTC reached a low of $3,023 while the Fear & Greed Index registered 11.

On March 17, 2020, BTC hit $3,897 with the index at 8.

On June 18, 2022, BTC fell to $17,420, with the index reading 6.

Most recently, on February 12, 2026, BTC traded around $67,293 while the Fear & Greed Index showed 5.

These readings aren’t noise. They reflect a market that’s been grinding lower with minimal conviction.

Since the recent breakdown attempts, BTC$BTC has been dancing between key levels. The real story now is in the weekly close dynamics, will we confirm sub-60K pressure, or find enough support to push back toward 70K?

Here’s what stands out: The Fear & Greed Index signaling extreme fear often precedes volatility compressions, not immediate rallies.

Price behavior near macro support levels shows buyers aren’t capitulating wholesale, even amid fear.

But liquidity conditions remain tight and macro headwinds aren’t gone. This feels less like confirmation of a new leg and more like a market seeking balance between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers.

If BTC stabilizes above critical levels and fear begins to thaw, sentiment could improve quickly. If not, we stay range-bound and choppy markets test conviction.

For now this is a narrative of relief, not triumph.Manage risk. Observe how levels hold. And remember: markets turn not when fear disappears, but when selling pressure finally stops.

Extreme Fear Drags BTC$BTC Down Weekly close under 60K or above 70K?

Well this depends on what technical structure and price action are saying on the chart because the Extreme Fear that is in the market currently as kept Sellers (Bear) in control and also because Bitcoin always follows priority scenario, to be precise here, After BTC failing to consolidate above the key technical & volume level at $68,000, price rolled over into a confident decline.

However, the projected buyer zone has not yet been tapped, and the market has formed only a local rebound.

$XRP
$DEFI
XRP (XRP) sedang mendapatkan perhatian baru setelah Ripple menguraikan rencana untuk memperluas perannya dalam keuangan terdesentralisasi, tetapi data harga menunjukkan hanya pergerakan yang modest sejauh ini.

XRP saat ini diperdagangkan sekitar 1,44 USD dengan kinerja 24 jam yang hampir datar, menunjukkan bahwa setiap lonjakan mungkin terjadi dalam sehari atau berlangsung singkat.

Peta jalan DeFi untuk XRP Ledger penting karena dapat menambah pinjaman, AMM, dan aset tertokenisasi di atas peran pembayaran XRP.

Hal-hal kunci yang perlu diperhatikan adalah peluncuran konkret, pertumbuhan likuiditas di rantai, dan apakah pengembang serta pengguna benar-benar mengadopsi fitur DeFi baru.

@Plasma $XPL #PlasmaXPL
Beberapa proyek terasa seolah-olah mereka terus-menerus mengejar perhatian. Yang lain diam-diam membangun sambil membiarkan pekerjaan berbicara seiring waktu. Plasma terasa lebih dekat dengan kategori kedua, dan itulah tepatnya mengapa mengikuti XPL$XPL tetap menarik bagi saya. #Plasma

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

@Vanar @Vanar vanar, tag token
Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.
Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Pandangan Bitcoin adalah tarik menarik antara adopsi institusional dan angin besar makro.

Permintaan Institusional: Aliran ETF dan akses potensial 401(k) dapat membuka kunci modal besar, memberikan dukungan harga struktural.

Perubahan Regulasi: Undang-undang AS yang akan datang dan keterlibatan SEC dapat mengurangi ketidakpastian, meningkatkan kepercayaan institusional.

Sensitivitas Makro: Kebijakan Fed dan data inflasi akan sangat mempengaruhi BTC sebagai aset berisiko, mendorong volatilitas jangka pendek.

Pendalaman Mendalam
1. Katalis Institusional & Aliran Modal (Dampak Bullish)

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million $BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like
$BTC (crypto.news).
What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Pandangan Bitcoin adalah perang tarik-menarik antara adopsi institusional dan angin besar makro.

Permintaan Institusional: Aliran ETF dan akses potensial 401(k) dapat membuka modal besar, memberikan dukungan harga struktural.

Perubahan Regulasi: Legislasi AS yang akan datang dan keterlibatan SEC mungkin mengurangi ketidakpastian, meningkatkan kepercayaan institusional.

Sensitivitas Makro: Kebijakan Fed dan data inflasi akan sangat mempengaruhi BTC sebagai aset berisiko, mendorong volatilitas jangka pendek.

$BTC Pendalaman
1. Katalis Institusional & Aliran Modal (Dampak Bullish)

Ethereum fell 5.25% over the last 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market's 4.32% drop. This sharp decline extends recent losses, with ETH down 3.21% over the past week. Here are the main factors:
Broad Market Downturn – Bitcoin plunged to a two-month low, dragging major altcoins like ETH lower in a correlated sell-off.
Leverage Unwind & Short Pressure – Over $800M in crypto positions were liquidated, with a notable whale profiting from a large ETH short, accelerating downward momentum.
Geopolitical Risk Aversion – Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran spurred a flight to traditional safe havens, dampening appetite for risk assets like crypto