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$BTC DAILY/LOWER TF BREAKDOWN 📊 | BAGIAN 5

Sekarang kita beralih ke time frame Daily, dan di sinilah pekerjaan dari time frame yang lebih tinggi mulai masuk akal.

Saya tidak menambahkan setiap Daily Open dan Close ke chart karena banyak di antaranya sudah berbaris dengan level-level Weekly. Menambah semuanya hanya akan membuat chart jadi berantakan tanpa memberi informasi tambahan yang jauh lebih berguna.

Sebagai gantinya, saya fokus pada bagaimana harga bereaksi di sekitar level kunci yang sudah kita tandai.

Dan jujur, di sinilah setup jadi menarik. BTC menghormati salah satu level kunci itu dengan sangat indah, memberi saya setup scalp 1:3. Harga bereaksi hampir persis di tempat yang disarankan oleh analisis time frame yang lebih tinggi.

Ini alasan utama saya melakukan seluruh seri top-down ini.

Kita mulai dari Yearly → Quarterly → Monthly → Weekly → Daily, membangun level-level kunci sepanjang jalan, lalu menggunakan time frame yang lebih rendah untuk menemukan peluang yang benar-benar terjadi.

Dengan struktur Weekly saat ini terlihat bullish, saya lebih tertarik untuk membeli breakout yang sudah terkonfirmasi dan retest, daripada mengejar candle. Jika BTC menembus sebuah resistance, mempertahankannya sebagai support saat retest, dan memberikan konfirmasi, maka level kunci berikutnya menjadi target potensial.

Break → Retest → Konfirmasi → Level berikutnya.

Itulah jenis struktur yang saya cari.

Time frame yang lebih tinggi memberi kita peta. Time frame yang lebih rendah memberi kita entry.

NFA!
#BTC Price Analysis# #BTC #Macro Insights#

Satoshi's Bitcoin Fortune Surges $12B as $BTC Breaks $75K

Bitcoin's latest rally has sent the estimated value of Satoshi Nakamoto's untouched BTC stash soaring. With roughly 1.1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi, the holdings are now worth around $83 billion at prices near $75K.

That means the estimated fortune gained roughly $12 billion in just three days as BTC pushed above $75,000 for the first time since May. The coins themselves haven't moved, so the increase is purely the result of Bitcoin's price appreciation.

$ETH is also joining the rally, with the asset reaching around $2,380 after gaining more than 25% over the past week.

The crazy part? Satoshi's wallet remains untouched. If Bitcoin keeps climbing, that dormant fortune could become one of the largest individual concentrations of wealth in the world without Satoshi moving a single coin.

#BTC Price Analysis# #ETH #Satoshi

JUST IN| Crypto Clarity Is Coming Either Way.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says the U.S. crypto industry could get regulatory clarity one way or another: through the CLARITY Act, which is expected to face a key Senate vote on September 15, or through new rules from the SEC and CFTC if Congress fails to deliver.

Armstrong expects the Senate bill to secure 60+ votes, but if that path fails, regulators appear increasingly prepared to move forward themselves. The SEC and CFTC have already been advancing crypto-focused rules and initiatives as congressional legislation remains stalled.

That makes September a potentially important month for U.S. crypto. Either Congress establishes a durable legal framework, or the agencies continue building one through regulation. The difference is that legislation would likely provide greater long-term certainty than rules that could be changed by future administrations.

$BTC. $PUMP #Macro Insights# #Crypto

$BTC WEEKLY BREAKDOWN 📊 | PART 4

Continuing the BTC top-down price action series.

In the Monthly breakdown, we identified the $76K-$78K area as the key resistance zone to watch. Now that we're moving down to the Weekly timeframe, something interesting is happening: BTC is once again pushing into that same region.

This is exactly why I prefer looking at multiple timeframes before thinking about entries. The Monthly gives us the bigger picture, while the Weekly helps us see how price is actually reacting around those higher-timeframe levels.

On the Weekly chart, #BTC has shown a strong recovery from the $72K-$73K area and the current candle has already broken through several previous weekly Open/Close levels. That's a clear improvement in short-term structure.

But the move isn't completely confirmed yet.

BTC is now approaching the $76K-$78K resistance cluster we highlighted from the Monthly analysis. A clean reclaim and weekly close above this area could open the door toward the higher levels around $79.5K-$80.4K.

On the other hand, rejection here would tell us that the higher-timeframe resistance is still doing its job, and BTC could pull back toward the lower weekly levels before attempting another move.

So far, the picture is becoming clearer:

> Yearly: Bearish
> Quarterly: Bearish, but recovering
> Monthly: Trying to stabilize
> Weekly: Strong bullish recovery

And this is the whole point of the series.

We're not just looking at one timeframe and immediately calling a direction. We're moving from the bigger picture down to the Weekly, then Daily, and eventually the lower timeframes where we'll look for potential entries.

Big picture first. Entries later.

Previous Monthly analysis is on my page if you want to see where the $76K-$78K zone was first identified.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

STONfi Ranks Top 4 Among All TON Apps and Number 1 in DeFi.

The latest rankings are in and the numbers are worth sharing.

STONfi sits at number 4 out of 100 TON apps by monthly financially active wallets, right behind centralized giants like Bybit. And number 1 among all DeFi protocols on TON.

14,000 financially active wallets this month. All self-custody. All without ever giving up control of their assets. That is what keeps users coming back swap after swap.

Swap on STONfi : app.ston.fi

More milestones ahead. Stay tuned.

$GRAM $XRP #Macro Insights# #TON #Meme Alpha#

Breakout Bome masih terasa baru, dengan harga tetap bertahan di atas kisaran konsolidasi sebelumnya setelah lonjakan 31% dalam 1H. Momentum jelas kuat, tetapi lonjakan tajam ini juga membuka ruang untuk fase pendinginan sebelum ekspansi berikutnya.

Untuk $BOME , zona $0.00102–$0.00107 adalah area kunci yang perlu diperhatikan saat terjadi pullback. Jika para pembeli mempertahankan wilayah ini dan membangun higher low (puncak terendah yang lebih tinggi) lagi, struktur breakout tetap terjaga.

Jika berhasil bertahan, level tertinggi terbaru $0.00125–$0.00130 berpotensi kembali menjadi fokus. Menembus area tersebut dengan close 1H yang kuat akan memberi ruang bagi bulls untuk memperpanjang pergerakan lebih jauh.

Setup ini hanya mulai kehilangan kekuatan jika harga kembali turun di bawah $0.00100. Hal itu akan meningkatkan peluang terjadinya retracement yang lebih dalam menuju zona demand $0.00085, sehingga pengujian ulang (retest) menjadi lebih penting daripada mengejar harga saat ini.
#BOME #Macro Insights# #Meme Alpha#

$DOGE has broken sharply higher from the $0.0700 area, reclaiming $0.0750 and pushing into the current $0.0815 region. The 1H structure is clearly bullish after this expansion.

A pullback toward $0.0745–$0.0750 would be the key area to watch. If buyers defend this former resistance, it could turn into support and provide the base for another continuation move.

Above current price, the major target is the $0.0835–$0.0850 supply zone. A clean breakout through this area could signal another leg higher, while rejection could send #DOGE back toward the breakout zone.

The setup remains bullish as long as $0.0745 holds. After such a strong move, though, chasing the pump carries higher risk, so the reaction at the retest zone is more important than the current spike.
#DOGE #Altcoin Season# #Meme Alpha#

Nearly $400M in Bitcoin shorts have been liquidated today, adding to the massive $1.4B wipeout from yesterday.

That puts the combined short-liquidation total at roughly $1.8B in just two days. Shorts are getting squeezed hard as traders betting on further downside are forced to close positions.

This kind of aggressive liquidation can create additional buying pressure in the short term, but it doesn't automatically confirm a trend reversal. The key now is whether BTC can hold the levels reclaimed during the squeeze.

If buying demand remains strong after the liquidations cool down, the move could develop into a broader recovery. If momentum fades, expect volatility as the market searches for its next direction.

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis# #MacroInsights #Crypto

XRP has broken out of the $1.00–$1.02 base and is now consolidating after the sharp move toward $1.13. The short-term structure remains bullish, but momentum has cooled around the current $1.09 area.

A pullback into the $1.06–$1.07 demand zone would be healthy if buyers defend it. Holding this area could give XRP the base needed for another push higher.

The main upside target sits around $1.16–$1.17, which is the next major supply zone marked on the chart. A clean break and 1H acceptance above it could open the door to further upside.

For now, $1.06–$1.07 is the key level to watch. Hold it and the bullish continuation remains valid; lose it and $XRP could retrace deeper into the previous breakout structure.
#XRP #Ripple #Macro Insights#

$ETH just broke out of a long 1H consolidation around $1,900 and accelerated sharply higher, pushing into the $2,270 area. The move has completely shifted the short-term structure in favor of buyers.

After such an aggressive expansion, a pullback would be healthy. The $2,100–$2,150 region now becomes an important area to watch, as it was part of the breakout leg and could act as the first demand zone if ETH retraces.

If buyers maintain control above that area, ETH could continue toward $2,300, with $2,400 becoming the next major psychological level. A clean 1H acceptance above $2,300 would strengthen the continuation setup.

The main risk here is chasing the vertical move. A rejection around $2,300 followed by a loss of $2,100 could trigger a deeper retracement toward the previous consolidation. For now, momentum is strongly bullish, but patience for a pullback may offer the cleaner setup.
#ETH #Macro Insights#

X Layer by OKX Is Now Live on STONfi Cross-Chain Swaps.

The cross-chain network keeps growing. X Layer by OKX is now connected to STONfi, meaning users can swap USDC and USDT0 on X Layer across TON and other supported networks in one flow.

X Layer is an EVM Layer 2 built for the next generation of on-chain financial markets, with multi-chain security and on-chain intelligence infrastructure designed for Web3 AI agents.

Here is the full picture of supported networks:

> USDT on TON and TRON
> USDT and USDC on Ethereum, BNB Chain, Base, Avalanche
> USDC and USDT0 on Arbitrum
> PUSD and USDC on Polygon
> USDG on Robinhood Chain
> USDC and USDT0 on X Layer

Every swap runs through Omniston. You see the exact amount before confirming and that is what arrives. Most swaps complete in 15 to 40 seconds. Swap volume is temporarily capped at $1,000 per transaction at this stage.

The more networks connect, the less users need to think about networks at all.

– Try Cross-Chain Swaps on STONfi : https://app.ston.fi/swap?mode=cross-chain&in=ton%3AUSD%E2%82%AE

$XRP $SOL #TON #MemeAlpha #Bullish

JUST IN: FED TURNS MORE HAWKISH.

Many Federal Reserve officials now believe higher interest rates could be necessary if inflation fails to decline, according to the minutes from the July meeting.

The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the 9-3 vote revealed a clear divide, with three officials already pushing for a hike.

For crypto, this is a potential liquidity headwind. Higher-for-longer rates can strengthen the dollar, tighten financial conditions and reduce appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

The market is now watching inflation data closely. If inflation stays sticky, rate-cut hopes could fade further and another Fed hike could come back into focus.

$BTC $HYPE #Macro Insights# #news #Crypto

$1.6 BILLION IN SHORTS LIQUIDATED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS!

A massive short squeeze appears to be underway as roughly $1.6B in bearish positions were wiped out, forcing overleveraged traders to close at a loss.

This is exactly how liquidation cascades can accelerate a crypto rally: shorts get forcibly closed, those buybacks add market demand, and the resulting move can trigger even more liquidations.

The big question now is whether this is the start of a broader trend reversal or simply a leverage flush. After a move this aggressive, volatility can remain extremely high, so traders should watch whether spot buying continues after the forced short covering.

$BTC $ETH #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Crypto

Arthur Hayes secara resmi keluar dari masa pensiunnya untuk memimpin Flop Labs, meluncurkan token fair-launch yang diposisikan sebagai "makanan untuk agen AI otonom." Disertai dengan airdrop besar yang dijadwalkan untuk akhir 2026, beberapa bulan sebelum blockchain yang mendasarinya bahkan benar-benar live pada awal 2027, langkah ini telah menghidupkan kembali perdebatan hangat di seluruh Web3.

Alih-alih menawarkan Layer-1 generik lainnya, Hayes menargetkan ekonomi agen AI yang sedang berkembang pesat. Diposisikan sebagai bahan bakar asli untuk transaksi mikro mesin-ke-mesin, FLOP selaras langsung dengan salah satu narasi kripto paling kuat saat ini. Dengan melewatkan alokasi pra-Venture Capital tradisional demi fair launch 100%, Hayes secara sengaja menghindari penguncian institusional untuk merebut perhatian murni dari ritel.

Namun, mendistribusikan token sebelum mainnet yang benar-benar live ada membawa risiko spekulatif yang besar. Tanpa metrik on-chain seperti permintaan compute yang aktif atau volume jaringan, valuasi awal aset ini akan sepenuhnya bergantung pada sentimen pasar dan personal brand Hayes, bukan pada utilitas yang nyata.

Hayes tidak selalu sedang menandakan akan datangnya musim altcoin lintas pasar secara luas. Sebaliknya, ia dengan cerdik mengantisipasi narasi AI, memanfaatkan kondisi makro yang tenang untuk memicu gelombang spekulasi yang terlokalisasi sebelum likuiditas pasar yang lebih luas berputar kembali ke altcoin.

Apakah pengikut Anda memburu meta agen AI ini lebih awal, atau mereka menunggu dokumentasi teknis yang benar-benar ada sebelum menanamkan modal?
$HYPE #HyperLiquid #HYPE #Macro Insights#

$BTC RINCIAN BULANAN 📊 | BAGIAN 3.

Melanjutkan seri aksi harga top-down BTC. Jika kamu melewatkan rincian tahunan dan kuartalan, cek halaman saya untuk analisis sebelumnya.

Sekarang kita turun ke timeframe Bulanan untuk melihat bagaimana struktur kuartalan yang lebih besar sebenarnya sedang berjalan.

Hal pertama yang paling menonjol adalah penolakan dari area $75K-$76K. BTC sempat masuk ke zona itu, tapi tidak bisa bertahan, dan sejak saat itu kita melihat pelemahan. Ini sejalan dengan apa yang kita lihat di chart kuartalan.

Saat ini, BTC berada di sekitar $65K, dengan area $63K-$65K menjadi zona penting untuk diperhatikan. Pembeli sejauh ini telah berhasil mempertahankan wilayah ini, tetapi masih ada banyak resistensi di atas.

Level utama yang saya pantau di atas berada di sekitar $65.7K, $66.9K, $68K, $72.6K, $73.6K, $74.1K, $74.6K, dan $76K+. Itu banyak resistensi yang harus ditembus sebelum kita bisa benar-benar mulai membahas potensi pembalikan tren bulanan.

Jadi untuk saat ini, saya tidak akan menyebut ini sebagai pembalikan. Saya menyebutnya sebagai upaya untuk stabil setelah terjadinya penjualan.

Jika #BTC dapat mempertahankan area $63K-$65K dan mulai merebut kembali level-level di atasnya, struktur bulanan bisa secara bertahap bergeser dari bearish menjadi konsolidasi, dan berpotensi menjadi bullish.

Namun jika support ini gagal, kita bisa melihat BTC kembali menguji level yang lebih rendah dari struktur kuartalan.

Tahunan: Bearish
Kuartalan: Bearish, tetapi upaya pemulihan Q3
Bulanan: Mencoba untuk stabil

Sekarang mari kita lihat apakah timeframe Mingguan mengonfirmasi pemulihan ini atau justru memberi tahu sesuatu yang benar-benar berbeda.

Gambaran besar dulu. Entri nanti!

#Wawasan Makro# #Analisis Harga #BTC#

Omniston Is Now Powering Smarter Swaps Inside My Wallet.

Another non-custodial wallet just integrated STONfi infrastructure and this one spans TON, Ethereum, and Solana.

My Wallet has built Omniston directly into its swap aggregator. Omniston checks rates across multiple DEXs in real time and routes every swap through the best available option automatically. Users get better execution inside My Wallet without manually comparing routes across different protocols.

Omniston also unlocks tokenized assets on TON inside the wallet — AAPLx, NVDAx, AMZNx, COINx, HOODx, TSLAx, and other xStocks available to swap directly.

One more integration, one more surface where TON liquidity becomes easier to access, with Omniston working under the hood to connect routes and improve swap execution across the ecosystem.

If you are building a wallet, launchpad, or app on TON and need reliable swap and liquidity infrastructure, the STONfi SDK and Omniston docs are the fastest way to get started.

– Explore Swaps in My Wallet: https://mywallet.io/

My Wallet is a third-party app integrating STONfi infrastructure. STONfi is not affiliated with or responsible for their actions. Always DYOR before interacting with any third-party product.

$BTW $LINK #Macro Insights# #Crypto #Meme Alpha#

$XRP Jatuh Di Bawah $1 Setelah Peretasan Jembatan Coreum

XRP sempat turun di bawah $1 untuk pertama kalinya sejak akhir 2024 setelah sebuah exploit menguras hampir 200.000 XRP, senilai sekitar $200.000, dari jembatan Coreum. Serangan tersebut menargetkan jembatan yang menghubungkan XRP Ledger dan Coreum, bukan XRP Ledger itu sendiri.

Pelaku dilaporkan mengeksploitasi kelemahan pada sistem verifikasi setoran jembatan, dengan menggunakan label transaksi palsu untuk meyakinkan relayer bahwa setoran yang tidak sah adalah sah. Coreum menghentikan operasi jembatan setelah menemukan masalah tersebut dan mengatakan kerentanan itu ada di kode miliknya.

Meskipun insiden tersebut terjadi, XRP dengan cepat kembali ke atas $1, dengan volume perdagangan melebihi $2 miliar. Respons ini menunjukkan bahwa pembeli bersedia mempertahankan level psikologis tersebut, meskipun para analis masih berbeda pendapat mengenai langkah berikutnya; beberapa model memperingatkan potensi pergerakan menuju $0,62 jika support gagal.

Inti yang lebih besar adalah bahwa XRP Ledger sendiri tidak dikompromikan. Eksploit ini terisolasi pada jembatan Coreum, yang menyoroti salah satu risiko terbesar dalam infrastruktur lintas-rantai: sebuah jembatan dapat menjadi titik terlemah bahkan ketika blockchain yang mendasarinya tetap aman.
#XRP #Ripple #Macro Insights#

Kalshi Wants to Bring Perpetual Futures for Stocks and Copper to the U.S.

Kalshi is expanding beyond prediction markets, filing with the CFTC to launch perpetual futures tied to the U.S. stock market and copper. Its proposed US500 Contract would track the MerQube US Large Cap Index, representing the performance of 500 major U.S.-based companies.

The platform also wants to introduce COPPERPERP, a perpetual futures contract tracking the spot price of copper in U.S. dollars per pound. Unlike traditional futures, perpetuals have no fixed expiration, allowing traders to speculate on price movements without directly owning the underlying asset.

The move follows the CFTC's approval of Kalshi's Bitcoin perpetual contract in May, giving U.S. traders access to a product that had largely been associated with offshore crypto derivatives markets. Kalshi is now attempting to expand that model beyond crypto and into traditional assets.

But regulatory challenges remain. CME Group sued the CFTC in June, arguing that the regulator improperly approved perpetual futures products offered by Kalshi and Coinbase and that they could compete directly with CME's derivatives business.

If approved, Kalshi's expansion could mark another major step toward bringing crypto-style perpetual trading into regulated U.S. markets, while also blurring the line between prediction markets and traditional derivatives exchanges.

$SOL $TRIA #Macro Insights# #Crypto #Kalshi

SEC Proposes $75M Crypto Fundraising Exemption.

The U.S. SEC has proposed new rules that could give eligible crypto projects a much easier path to raise capital. Under the proposed framework, qualifying projects could raise up to $75 million without going through a full SEC registration, potentially opening a significantly clearer fundraising route for the industry.

The proposal outlines three tiers: projects could raise up to $5M over four years, while larger offerings could reach $20M or $75M within 12 months. The bigger the raise, the stronger the disclosure requirements, with the $75M tier requiring audited financial statements. Public advertising would also be permitted, although certain limits could apply to retail participation.

But the more interesting part goes beyond fundraising. The SEC is proposing a process through which a qualifying token could eventually be separated from the securities offering that originally financed its development. If a project completes its required commitments and satisfies the conditions, future transactions involving the token could potentially fall outside federal securities oversight.

The proposal isn't final yet. A 60-day public comment period will begin after publication in the Federal Register, giving the industry an opportunity to weigh in. If adopted, the framework could represent a major shift for crypto fundraising in the U.S., giving projects a defined path to raise capital while potentially creating an eventual route for tokens to operate outside traditional securities rules. $BTC $ETH
#Macro Insights# #Crypto #BTC Price Analysis#

$XPL is consolidating between $0.0740 demand and the $0.0800–$0.0810 supply zone, with price currently sitting around $0.0755. The repeated reactions from the lower zone suggest buyers are still defending it.

A recovery toward $0.0770 would be the first sign of strength. If buyers reclaim and hold above that area, momentum could build toward the upper range.

The bigger test comes at $0.0800–$0.0810. A clean breakout through that supply could open room for another leg higher, while rejection would likely keep XPL trapped inside the current range.

For now, let's watch the reaction around $0.0735–$0.0740 closely. Holding it keeps the bullish recovery setup alive, while a decisive break below it would shift the short-term structure bearish.
#XPL #Altcoin Season# #Crypto