The data released by the United States last Friday can be described as mixed. The seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment population in July increased by 187,000, which is the smallest increase since December 2020, and it was lower than expected for the second consecutive month. While the unemployment rate (3.5%) fell and the hourly wage growth data was also slightly higher than expected (+0.4% MoM vs. 0.3% expected). The day after the data was released, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that she supported the Fed's decision to raise interest rates last month and predicted that further rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation down to the FOMC's 2% target.
In terms of cryptocurrencies, the price of BTC/ETH has not seen any fluctuations, and is still trading sideways at a relatively low realised volatility. Options have not yet gotten rid of the quagmire of low implied volatility. The IV of ETH's middle and far ends IV continued to decline today (about -2%), while the front end did not change significantly. In contrast, BTC's most obvious IV changes appeared at the recovery of IV around 1m, the middle section of the curve returned to normal shape.
Overall options trading volume was low due to low liquidity over the weekend. In the past 24H trades, the ratio of BTC put options has increased significantly, which mainly comes from buying block trades on 18AUG23-28500-P, 25AUG23-28000-P and 27OCT23-27000-P. Even though options prices are different, they all offer protection for Delta=30.
However, ETH's focus remains on call options. Despite the current sluggish IV, retail investors still sold a large number of Calls on Wing, among which a total of 10.97K call options were sold at the resistance level of 2000. In terms of block trading, the bullish calendar spread of 29DEC23 vs 29MAR24 has attracted the attention of the market. In December, traders bought 4250/6000 2100/2500 Call and sold the same amount as 29MAR24 2300/3000 as a hedge.
