How are you guys feeling?

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How are you guys feeling? 

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The rate was left unchanged at 4.5% as expected. Key points of the Fed's press release: 1. Economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. 2. The labor market is stable: unemployment remains low. 3. 3. Inflation remains elevated, but the Fed is committed to bringing it back to the 2% target. 4. The federal funds rate is maintained in the 4.25% - 4.50% range. 5. Fed balance sheet reduction - Beginning in April, the limit on Treasury securities purchases is reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion per month. - The limit on buying mortgage and agency bonds remains at $35 billion per month. The market heard what it wanted, namely the QT cut. Quarterly opex remains and we can expect a market reversal from next week. Crypto turned green the market liked what it heard, I took some speculative positions as well. #Macro

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🙋‍♂️ Hey, friends! We start the week with a review of the crypto market. 🔍 Last week's results In the last review I warned about probable downside gains and renewal of lows - and so it turned out: BTC reached 76K, ETH - 1.75K. Local longs with the V-setup I mentioned have already brought good results. 🕵️‍♂️ Liquidation Map Zones with high concentration of liquidations, the breakdown of which will accelerate the movement: #BTC : 78K and 86K #ETH : 1.8K and 2K 🏦 ETF market ETFs continue to show outflows: 2 consecutive weeks of selling. Bitcoin Spot ETF: -830.5 million USD Ethereum Spot ETF: -189.9 million USD ⛓️ Onchain-metrics There are few changes in BTC, everything is normal. ETH has leverage ratio at highs - a signal of high risk and pressure on margin positions. Reserves on CEX are up slightly. 🌐 Events of the week Key: geopolitics, US macro data, expiry. 📅 Wednesday: Fed rate decision (99% expect no change). Focus is on Powell's speech and hints of a rate cut in May or QE. 📅 Quarterly derivatives expiry: current cycle is negative but new positions could change sentiment. 📊 Scenarios of the week Waiting for tests of supports and lows, but a strong drop below is unlikely. Medium-term entry points: break of 85K (BTC) and 2.15K (ETH) - trend breakdown, you can take longs. Short-term: work in sideways. Current prices are good for spot basket. Local supports: BTC - 75K, ETH - 1.6K. ⏳ Conclusions While there is no clear trend, instruments will saw ranges, collecting liquidity. Waiting for consolidation breakdown for clarity. Useful? Subscribe and give us a 👍! $BTC $ETH

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🌐 Global liquidity. Based on the chart, we are in for a very interesting 25th and 26th year. 📊 If we look at the last cycle, its peak in 21 years is exactly at the highs of the crypto market. $BTC

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🔥 Yesterday all day long FUD about a whale 🐳 who opened a 400m short position and later opened a short on ether (already closed) and a long on #Melania. 💰 Liquidation in this player is at 86K. Personally, I don't fall for such throw-ins, as they can highlight such a position on purpose, omitting that it could be a hedge to a long, which is open from thousands of small addresses. 💡 Players of this level do not open positions manually, all work is done through algorithms and bots, where working with a thousand wallets is not a problem at all. 🖋️ So acting on the fact 85K is really strong resistance, which I have already mentioned, and volatility is pushed to this zone. Many people copying the position of this wallet, also got into shorts thereby increasing the potential strong movement if the shortswing starts. ⚡ The main movements on the market and will go this week from the Fed meeting and the expiration of derivatives for 15 billion, not the position of an individual player. #FUD $BTC

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$BTC #DCA 🙋‍♂️ Hey guys. 💡 Bitcoin is still trading in a downtrend. 📈 Locally possible spills, but long term 30% discount from high price looks attractive, with potential for highs updates in 2025. 💰 Buying up $70 as part of last week's DCA experiment. 🖋️ As a reminder, I allocate $10 daily to cryptocurrency investing and make a purchase once a week. Results and portfolio views are publicly available. 🚀 If this was useful subscribe to not miss anything and give me a reaction 👍

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