The fight over open-source AI is starting to look like Bitcoin's early regulatory battle, and one analyst thinks that pattern could be an investor's opening. $BTC
In a Brownstone Research note, Ben Lilly points to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's July 2023 congressional testimony. Amodei called open source "a good thing" in most scientific fields and said risks from open models released so far were "relatively limited" — but warned that scaling open models was heading "down a very dangerous path."
Lilly reads the subtext as a push to restrict open models and elevate closed ones. He compares it to Bitcoin's skeptics, from Rep. Jared Polis buying the first Bitcoin on Capitol Hill in 2014 to Sen. Joe Manchin's call to ban a "dangerous currency," and later accusations regulators tried to cut crypto off from banking, dubbed "Operation Choke Point 2.0."
He points to a U.S. export ban on Anthropic's latest release and OpenAI's decision to limit its GPT-5.6 rollout to trusted partners as signs that access walls are going up. He also cites NSA chief Joshua Rudd, by way of Sen. Mark Warner, describing how Anthropic's "Mythos" model broke into "almost all of our classified system, not in weeks, but in hours." Yet he says open models are closing the gap — GLM-5.2 scored on par with Anthropic's Sonnet 4.6 from February, leaving open models roughly three to four months behind the frontier.
Lilly names three early decentralized AI projects: Dark Bloom, c0mpute and Pluralis. He expects more to launch tokens and reward users for contributing compute. Note that this is one analyst's view, not a confirmed market outcome.
If identity checks and access restrictions spread, decentralized AI projects could attract attention from users who want permissionless access. That may not translate into price moves, and the space is still early.
The takeaway worth saving: the open-versus-closed fight in AI is echoing crypto's own regulatory history, and the projects to watch are the ones rewarding contributed compute.
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