Bitcoin is about 38% below its October 2025 record while the Nasdaq 100 peaked just weeks ago. Here's the argument, what it can't prove, and the levels to watch.
📆 Bitcoin's all-time high came on October 6, 2025. The Nasdaq's record came on October 6, 2026. That date coincidence is the heart of a theory making the rounds this weekend.
On October 31, trader Ansem argued that crypto may have peaked a full year before US stocks this cycle. His reasoning: risk appetite was driven largely by AI and US equities, so the two markets don't have to top at the same time.
🔍 What he actually said.
If crypto's recent rebound is only a counter-trend bounce, and stocks are just starting a larger correction, crypto could face another leg down. But he added that Bitcoin may still bottom before the broader stock market, even if both keep falling in the short term. He also said he isn't certain, and that he's watching how prices react at key levels.
📊 The numbers behind it.
$BTC trades near $78,000, about 38% below its $126,080 record. After Friday's 2.9% drop, the Nasdaq closed 7.8% below its October 6 record closing high. So, crypto has lagged stocks by a year, and stocks are now catching up to the downside, driven by doubts about AI spending.
⚖️ The counter-argument.
Earlier this month, some analysts pointed to Bitcoin holding up better than tech. One noted that since the Nasdaq's record, Bitcoin had fallen slightly less than the index, and another said Bitcoin held the $81,250 zone while stocks sold off. That fits Ansem's "Bitcoin bottoms first" idea. Bitcoin has since slipped below that zone, so it's a thesis, not a confirmed trend.
✅ What this means for you
If you trade $BTC, watch how Bitcoin behaves on days the Nasdaq falls. The Friday low near $76,460 is the level to respect, and $80,000 is the first line to reclaim. Resistance sits much higher, around $87,000.
If you're on the sidelines, a trader's theory isn't a signal. Waiting to see whether Bitcoin holds up on the next stock selloff costs you little and tells you more.
If you hold long term, this is a reminder that crypto and stocks can share a story without sharing a calendar. It's worth tracking, and it isn't a reason to act.
🟢 Bullish scenario
Stocks fall further, $BTC holds above $76,460 and keeps outperforming, and Bitcoin turns out to be the first to bottom.
🔴 Risk scenario
The stock selloff deepens, the rebound proves counter-trend, and $BTC loses $76,460 as the AI-driven risk appetite fades.
👀 Three things to watch
1️⃣ Bitcoin on Nasdaq down days: does it hold up or fall harder?
2️⃣ $76,460 and $80,000: the low to defend and the line to reclaim
3️⃣ AI-spending news: does the doubt keep spreading through tech?
💡 The key takeaway
Ansem's idea is simple: crypto peaked first, stocks are following, and Bitcoin could still bottom first. It's an interesting framework, and he says himself it isn't certain.
The real question isn't which market topped first. It's which one finds its floor first.
That is the part worth watching.
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
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