October was supposed to be the historically strong month — instead it became the month that broke every rule. The Fed held, the US economy came in stronger than expected, and then one night changed everything: the Binance breach.
First: the facts — what actually happened in October?
• The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% in a 10–2 vote, with two officials wanting a hike — a hawkish hold, not a comfortable one
• US growth came in at 3.4% for Q3, and annual PCE inflation at 3.6% — a strong economy makes rate cuts harder
• The Bank of Japan held, and the European Central Bank held — a full central-bank week with no easing anywhere
• Binance disclosed a security incident with an impact of around $6.3B — the largest theft in crypto history, with around $3B frozen and $6.34B set aside to cover it
• Bitcoin fell from above $81K to a low of $76,155 — and market reports describe this October as the worst October performance in 12 years
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $441M across the week — but daily inflows faded from $176M to $17M, while Ethereum saw $276M leave in the same week
Second: scoring yesterday, honestly
• Right: we said Friday would close below $78K — it closed around $77,000
• Partly right: $76,330 broke intraday to a $76,155 low, but with no daily close below it — price reclaimed it
• Wrong: the rebound toward $80K never came — the market chose waiting over bouncing
• Last night's question (do you trust centralized platforms?) is still the whole market's question — and Sunday's withdrawals are its first practical answer
Third: the analysis — levels for the new week
• Bitcoin: holding above $77,494 opens $78,260, then $80,000; a close below $76,155 kills the bottom thesis and opens $75,000, then $73,000
• Ethereum: above $2,248 means consolidation worked, toward $2,300; below $2,170 means a deeper leg toward $2,100
• The overall invalidation level: a Bitcoin close below $76,155 is what turns a "panic week" into a "new downtrend" — so far, that has not happened
Fourth: what decides November?
• Sunday: Binance withdrawals in stages — the first practical test of trust
• Monday: Binance proof of reserves + ISM Manufacturing at 18:00 Amman + Apple and Palantir earnings
• Tuesday: US midterm elections
• Thursday: Bank of England decision (forecast 4.00%)
• Friday: US jobs report at 16:30 Amman
• November 10: CPI inflation — which decides whether the Fed can soften its tone in December
So what does all this mean?
October taught one lesson: markets do not collapse on economic numbers alone — they collapse when trust in the infrastructure itself shakes. November is not a month of predictions — it is a month of proofs, and the first one arrives Sunday morning.
Tonight's question: is November a recovery month or a deeper-leg-first month? Leave your call in a comment.
Source: Kraken, CoinGlass, SoSoValue, Binance statements, ISM, Strategy Q3 results — October 31, 2026