Bitcoin open interest across all exchanges has fallen from around $29B on September 22 to $25.8B, which is roughly a 12% decline. At the same time BTC has managed to stay above $80K. Most of this drop happened within about a week, and open interest has been moving in the $25–26B range since then.

I see this as a leverage reset rather than a liquidation event. Open interest has come down without a similar drop in price, which is generally a healthier setup. It is also still well below last October’s peak of around $45B. In dollar terms, OI is only about 10% above its August level, while BTC is up more than 25%. So far, this rally has not been driven by a large increase in leverage.

Exchange flows support that view. The 7-day EMA of netflow is negative, with net outflows of around 19K BTC on September 22 and 14K BTC on October 6. When coins leave exchanges, there is less BTC immediately available for selling. That said, exchange outflows can also come from custody movements or exchange-specific activity, so I would not read too much into any single flow figure.

SOPR is currently at 1.006 and has stayed roughly between 1.00 and 1.02 since late August. That tells us holders are still realizing small profits, but we are not seeing the kind of sharp moves that usually come with heavy selling. There have been no meaningful breaks below 1 and no spikes above roughly 1.03.

Overall, I think this is a healthier positioning setup, but I would not take it as proof of new demand yet. What matters next is whether open interest starts rising gradually with price instead of jumping sharply, and whether exchange netflows remain negative.

Written by YavuzAkbay