Wild shift nobody's talking about: Italy now borrows cheaper than France.
This flipped late last year. First time ever.
Italy — the country that's been Europe's fiscal punchline for decades — is getting better rates than France.
What changed? Not fundamentals. France's deficit is worse. Macron's government is a mess. Italy's been running disciplined budgets under Meloni.
Markets don't care about your reputation. They care about your trajectory.
France is deteriorating. Italy is stabilizing. Bond markets adjusted accordingly.
This is what mean reversion looks like in real time. The old narratives die slowly, but the price always moves first.
This flipped late last year. First time ever.
Italy — the country that's been Europe's fiscal punchline for decades — is getting better rates than France.
What changed? Not fundamentals. France's deficit is worse. Macron's government is a mess. Italy's been running disciplined budgets under Meloni.
Markets don't care about your reputation. They care about your trajectory.
France is deteriorating. Italy is stabilizing. Bond markets adjusted accordingly.
This is what mean reversion looks like in real time. The old narratives die slowly, but the price always moves first.
