Core PCE just came in softer than expected — +0.2% monthly vs. +0.3% expected, and +3.0% yearly vs. +3.3% forecast.
Futures jumped immediately. Makes sense. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it's cooling faster than the Street thought.
Don't overthink it: cooler inflation = less pressure for aggressive rate hikes = market relief.
But remember — one data point doesn't make a trend. The Fed still cares about the full picture: labor, wages, services inflation, and whether this holds. They've been burned before by declaring victory too early.
Stay grounded. Good news is good news, but don't extrapolate one print into a new bull market narrative.
Futures jumped immediately. Makes sense. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and it's cooling faster than the Street thought.
Don't overthink it: cooler inflation = less pressure for aggressive rate hikes = market relief.
But remember — one data point doesn't make a trend. The Fed still cares about the full picture: labor, wages, services inflation, and whether this holds. They've been burned before by declaring victory too early.
Stay grounded. Good news is good news, but don't extrapolate one print into a new bull market narrative.
