Earnings estimate revisions are a lagging indicator, not a leading one.
When analysts finally capitulate and raise their numbers across the board, the market has usually already priced in the optimism. You're not early—you're late.
Every major top has been marked by surging estimate revisions. Every bottom? Analysts slashing numbers while everyone panics.
The crowd always extrapolates the recent past into the future. That's why peaks feel like the beginning, and troughs feel like the end.
By the time consensus catches up, the opportunity has already moved.
When analysts finally capitulate and raise their numbers across the board, the market has usually already priced in the optimism. You're not early—you're late.
Every major top has been marked by surging estimate revisions. Every bottom? Analysts slashing numbers while everyone panics.
The crowd always extrapolates the recent past into the future. That's why peaks feel like the beginning, and troughs feel like the end.
By the time consensus catches up, the opportunity has already moved.