I’m watching Bitcoin a lot more closely here because the market is starting to look less clean than it did a few weeks ago.
Bitcoin recently pushed above $82,000, but the move lost momentum right around the 50-week moving average. That level has become a serious line in the sand. Galaxy Research had the 50-week average around $81,000 earlier this month, while Bitcoin has since slipped back toward the $77,000 area.
What makes this interesting is that the market has already done a lot of work on the upside. BTC rallied from roughly $62,000 to $82,000 before the recent Golden Cross even appeared. So I don’t want to look at one bullish indicator and immediately call a new bull market. The Golden Cross is useful, but it is also a lagging signal. Bitcoin has historically pulled back after some Golden Crosses, including in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025.
For me, the next few weekly candles matter more than the headline.
I want to see Bitcoin reclaim the 50-week MA and actually close above it. If that happens, the rejection starts looking more like a temporary shakeout. If BTC keeps getting rejected and loses the $75,000 area, I would become much more cautious. Recent market analysis also points to roughly $72,800 as an important lower support around the 200-day EMA.
And then there is the macro problem nobody can ignore. Markets are now pricing an increasingly high probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16 after hotter inflation data. Reuters reported that core CPI rose 0.3% in August, above expectations, while overall inflation reached 3.4%. Rate-hike odds climbed to around 85% after the data.
So yes, I still see a bullish case here.
But I think Bitcoin has to prove it.
Hold the major support, reclaim the 50-week average, then break the $82,000 to $83,000 resistance zone. Until that happens, I’m treating this as a decision point, not confirmation of a new bull run.