Bernstein’s model definitely makes a compelling case, especially when you look at the institutional mechanics driving this cycle. The structural supply deficit post-halving combined with consistent net inflows into spot ETFs and expanding treasury demand gives Bitcoin a much firmer floor than in previous runs. Historically speaking, a 58% expansion over a quarter isn't unprecedented once price discovery kicks in and macro liquidity starts expanding alongside rate cut cycles.
That being said, targeting $125K strictly by December feels overly aggressive given the current order book depth and macro headwinds. We still have significant overhead resistance to clear, and relying on pure ETF momentum overlooks the persistent sell pressure from miner margin hedging and sovereign asset distributions. If open interest in perpetuals continues to outpace spot volume, we are far more likely to see sharp leverage flushes rather than a clean parabolic run into year-end. The target itself isn't impossible long-term, but banking on that tight of a timeline underestimates how choppy Q4 rotations can actually be. $BTC
That being said, targeting $125K strictly by December feels overly aggressive given the current order book depth and macro headwinds. We still have significant overhead resistance to clear, and relying on pure ETF momentum overlooks the persistent sell pressure from miner margin hedging and sovereign asset distributions. If open interest in perpetuals continues to outpace spot volume, we are far more likely to see sharp leverage flushes rather than a clean parabolic run into year-end. The target itself isn't impossible long-term, but banking on that tight of a timeline underestimates how choppy Q4 rotations can actually be. $BTC
