Goldman is seeing something interesting in credit markets that equity bros are completely ignoring.
The AI hype train is still running in stocks — everyone's buying $NVDA, $MSFT, hyperscalers, anything with "AI" in the deck. But credit? Credit traders are actually asking hard questions about capex returns, cash flow timelines, and whether these massive infrastructure builds will ever pay off.
Equity can stay irrational forever because momentum and narrative drive price. Credit has to get paid back. If bond investors are getting nervous about AI spending while equity stays euphoric, that's a divergence worth watching.
This isn't saying AI is dead. It's saying the easy money phase might be ending. Credit sniffs out problems before equity admits them. Always has.
The AI hype train is still running in stocks — everyone's buying $NVDA, $MSFT, hyperscalers, anything with "AI" in the deck. But credit? Credit traders are actually asking hard questions about capex returns, cash flow timelines, and whether these massive infrastructure builds will ever pay off.
Equity can stay irrational forever because momentum and narrative drive price. Credit has to get paid back. If bond investors are getting nervous about AI spending while equity stays euphoric, that's a divergence worth watching.
This isn't saying AI is dead. It's saying the easy money phase might be ending. Credit sniffs out problems before equity admits them. Always has.