4% sounded like a small, forgettable number until I did the subtraction. TermMax's docs allocate 40 million TMX, 4% of a 1 billion total supply, to a pre-mine rewarding early users, claimable around TGE. My first thought wasn't the 4%. It was who holds the other 96%, and how long they're expected to wait for it to matter.
If four in a hundred tokens fund today's user activity, most of the supply sits with parties who aren't showing up in the TVL number at all — the ones the design assumes will hold while the protocol proves itself. That's a lot of patience asked of people earning no points.
Meanwhile, the deposits chasing that 4% aren't behaving like fixed-rate liquidity. The pre-mine reward is priced off an assumed FDV, so depositors are sizing positions against the token they might get, not the rate on offer. A fixed-rate order book needs liquidity that's there for the rate. Points-driven capital is there for the airdrop — and pre-mined TMX claims 1:1 with no vesting once it's transferable.
That mismatch doesn't resolve at TGE. It lands on whoever is still depositing for the rate once the mercenary capital has an exit.
How much of the current deposit base do you think is still there 30 days after tokens become transferable?
#termmax @TermMax
If four in a hundred tokens fund today's user activity, most of the supply sits with parties who aren't showing up in the TVL number at all — the ones the design assumes will hold while the protocol proves itself. That's a lot of patience asked of people earning no points.
Meanwhile, the deposits chasing that 4% aren't behaving like fixed-rate liquidity. The pre-mine reward is priced off an assumed FDV, so depositors are sizing positions against the token they might get, not the rate on offer. A fixed-rate order book needs liquidity that's there for the rate. Points-driven capital is there for the airdrop — and pre-mined TMX claims 1:1 with no vesting once it's transferable.
That mismatch doesn't resolve at TGE. It lands on whoever is still depositing for the rate once the mercenary capital has an exit.
How much of the current deposit base do you think is still there 30 days after tokens become transferable?
#termmax @TermMax