Record highs keep coming. So what's next?
Historical pattern is pretty clear: when the $SPX breaks out to new all-time highs, it tends to keep running. Over the past 30 years, 13 out of 17 times the market continued higher, averaging about +6.3% over the next 6 months.
The 4 exceptions? 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019. The first two led into brutal bear markets, so context matters.
We've seen 26 new highs already in 2026, following 39 in 2025 and 57 in 2024. That's a lot of breakouts.
Momentum tends to feed on itself until it doesn't. History leans bullish after breakouts, but those exceptions are worth remembering. Markets don't care about your pattern when macro shifts or sentiment cracks.
Stay aware of what's driving this rally and watch for signs of exhaustion.
Historical pattern is pretty clear: when the $SPX breaks out to new all-time highs, it tends to keep running. Over the past 30 years, 13 out of 17 times the market continued higher, averaging about +6.3% over the next 6 months.
The 4 exceptions? 2000, 2007, 2018, and 2019. The first two led into brutal bear markets, so context matters.
We've seen 26 new highs already in 2026, following 39 in 2025 and 57 in 2024. That's a lot of breakouts.
Momentum tends to feed on itself until it doesn't. History leans bullish after breakouts, but those exceptions are worth remembering. Markets don't care about your pattern when macro shifts or sentiment cracks.
Stay aware of what's driving this rally and watch for signs of exhaustion.