Good Morning Everyone!

Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger was asked about long-term valuations: “I don't worry about it too much, because I will be dead."

At least he’s being honest.

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 2/15/23; % YTD

MARKET UPDATE

Retail sales

  • +3% vs. 1.8% expected

  • All categories showed growth MoM and YoY

  • Restaurants and bars +7.2% MoM, +24% YoY

    • Rotation from goods to services still underway

  • Data says: consumer still strong

Industrial & Manufacturing production

  • Industrial production unch MoM

    • +0.8% YoY

    • Slowest growth since February 2021

    • -9.9% monthly drop in Utilities (chart below)

      • Largest drop ever

  • Manufacturing production +1% MoM

    • Best print since February 2022

Homebuilder sentiment

  • Rose by 7 points (most since mid-2020)

  • At 5-month high

  • Sales expectations jumped to highest since July

  • Optimism over prospective buyer traffic

Today's data:

  • 8:30:

    • PPI MoM: 0.7% vs. 0.4% est

      • Biggest gain in 7 months

      • Largest increase in goods (+1.2%) since June

        • +6.2% surge in gasoline cost

    • Core PPI MoM: 0.5% vs. 0.3% est

    • Building Permits MoM: +0.1% (prev -1%)

    • Housing Starts MoM: -4.5% (prev -3.4%)

    • Initial Jobless Claims: 194k vs. 200k est

      • Remains close to 9-month low from January

      • Labor market: still tight

    • Philly Fed Manufacturing: -24.3 vs. -7.4 est

      • Lowest reading since May 2020

      • 6th straight month of contraction

  • Fed talk

    • 8:45 - Mester

    • 1:30 - Bullard

    • 4:00 - Cook

    • 6:00 - Mester

Crude 

  • IEA lifts oil demand by 2 mbpd in 2023

    • China makes up 900k bpd

  • Record 101.9 mpbd

    • +100k bpd from prev forecast

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)

  • Autopilot workers announced unionization campaign Tuesday

    • Yesterday Tesla fired dozens of them

  • Charlie Munger on Tesla/BYD (Chinese competitor):

    • “BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China ... it’s almost ridiculous”

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO)

  • Beat top & bottom lines

  • Demand for tech infrastructure stronger than expected

  • Highest sales forecast in years

    • +9.8% for 2023

Zillow (NASDAQ: Z)

  • Beat top & bottom lines

  • Driven by core advertising

  • Developing “super app” for housing

  • Partnering with Opendoor (NASDAQ: OPEN) to reach home sellers

Earnings

  • Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS)

  • Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG)

  • Crox (NASDAQ: CROX)

  • DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG)

  • Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA)

  • Cenovus Energy (NYSE: CVE)

  • PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF)

  • NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG)

  • Watsco (NYSE: WSO)

  • Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H)

  • Pool Corp (NASDAQ: POOL)

  • Southern Company (NYSE: SO)

  • Zebra Tech (NASDAQ: ZBRA)

  • EPAM Systems (NYSE: EPAM)

  • Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS)

CRYPTO UPDATE

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) hits 6-month high

  • Highest since August

  • Closing in on $25,000

  • +11% last 24 hours

  • Squeeze? Short-sellers closed out $64.5 million in bets yesterday

Court reveals identities of SBF guarantors

  • Check out thread for details:

The two people who paid the former FTX CEO’s bail are:

Larry Kramer (left) - former dean of Stanford Law School.

Andreas Paepcke (right) - a Senior Research Scientist at Stanford. pic.twitter.com/ZnPB9n95x9

— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) February 15, 2023

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