Good Morning Everyone!
Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger was asked about long-term valuations: “I don't worry about it too much, because I will be dead."
At least he’s being honest.
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 2/15/23; % YTD
MARKET UPDATE
Retail sales
+3% vs. 1.8% expected
All categories showed growth MoM and YoY
Restaurants and bars +7.2% MoM, +24% YoY
Rotation from goods to services still underway
Data says: consumer still strong
Industrial & Manufacturing production
Industrial production unch MoM
+0.8% YoY
Slowest growth since February 2021
-9.9% monthly drop in Utilities (chart below)
Largest drop ever
Manufacturing production +1% MoM
Best print since February 2022
Homebuilder sentiment
Rose by 7 points (most since mid-2020)
At 5-month high
Sales expectations jumped to highest since July
Optimism over prospective buyer traffic
Today's data:
8:30:
PPI MoM: 0.7% vs. 0.4% est
Biggest gain in 7 months
Largest increase in goods (+1.2%) since June
+6.2% surge in gasoline cost
Core PPI MoM: 0.5% vs. 0.3% est
Building Permits MoM: +0.1% (prev -1%)
Housing Starts MoM: -4.5% (prev -3.4%)
Initial Jobless Claims: 194k vs. 200k est
Remains close to 9-month low from January
Labor market: still tight
Philly Fed Manufacturing: -24.3 vs. -7.4 est
Lowest reading since May 2020
6th straight month of contraction
Fed talk
8:45 - Mester
1:30 - Bullard
4:00 - Cook
6:00 - Mester
Crude
IEA lifts oil demand by 2 mbpd in 2023
China makes up 900k bpd
Record 101.9 mpbd
+100k bpd from prev forecast
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Autopilot workers announced unionization campaign Tuesday
Yesterday Tesla fired dozens of them
Charlie Munger on Tesla/BYD (Chinese competitor):
“BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China ... it’s almost ridiculous”
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO)
Beat top & bottom lines
Demand for tech infrastructure stronger than expected
Highest sales forecast in years
+9.8% for 2023
Zillow (NASDAQ: Z)
Beat top & bottom lines
Driven by core advertising
Developing “super app” for housing
Partnering with Opendoor (NASDAQ: OPEN) to reach home sellers
Earnings
Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS)
Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG)
Crox (NASDAQ: CROX)
DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG)
Paramount Global (NASDAQ: PARA)
Cenovus Energy (NYSE: CVE)
PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF)
NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG)
Watsco (NYSE: WSO)
Hyatt Hotels (NYSE: H)
Pool Corp (NASDAQ: POOL)
Southern Company (NYSE: SO)
Zebra Tech (NASDAQ: ZBRA)
EPAM Systems (NYSE: EPAM)
Reliance Steel (NYSE: RS)
CRYPTO UPDATE
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) hits 6-month high
Highest since August
Closing in on $25,000
+11% last 24 hours
Squeeze? Short-sellers closed out $64.5 million in bets yesterday
Court reveals identities of SBF guarantors
Check out thread for details:
The two people who paid the former FTX CEO’s bail are:
Larry Kramer (left) - former dean of Stanford Law School.
Andreas Paepcke (right) - a Senior Research Scientist at Stanford. pic.twitter.com/ZnPB9n95x9
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) February 15, 2023
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