btcnextmove

saat ini Diperdagangkan sekitar $69k setelah pulih dari level rendah baru-baru ini. Struktur pasar pada Kerangka Waktu 4 jam Menunjukkan reaksi yang jelas dari peristiwa likuiditas diikuti oleh pergerakan terkendali lebih tinggi. Namun, harga mendekati titik keputusan saat momentum mulai melambat. Interaksi antara penarikan likuiditas baru-baru ini, FVG bullish 4-jam, dan FVG resistensi yang lebih tinggi kemungkinan akan menentukan pergerakan arah berikutnya.
🛑 Penarikan Likuiditas
Sebelum pemulihan baru-baru ini, Bitcoin melakukan penarikan likuiditas yang jelas di bawah level rendah jangka pendek sebelumnya. Harga sempat diperdagangkan di bawah rentang tersebut, memicu stop dan mengumpulkan likuiditas sisi jual, sebelum berbalik tajam ke atas. Jenis pergerakan ini sering kali menandakan bahwa pasar telah menyelesaikan fase korektif jangka pendek dan siap untuk ekspansi ke arah yang berlawanan. Reaksi kuat dari penarikan itu mengonfirmasi bahwa pembeli menunggu di bawah level rendah, menggunakan peristiwa likuiditas itu sebagai bahan bakar untuk pergerakan ke atas.

📊 Bitcoin’s Next Move Depends on One Major On-Chain Signal

The crypto market is currently moving sideways with very little momentum.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped by more than 1%, and traders are waiting for a clear direction before making new moves.

While price action looks quiet, on-chain data (blockchain-based metrics) may already be giving important signals about what could happen next.

🔎 1️⃣ The NUPL Indicator – Are Long-Term Holders in Profit?
What is NUPL?

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures whether Bitcoin holders are sitting in profit or loss overall.
According to Alphractal co-founder João Wedson.

NUPL is one of the most reliable signals for spotting Bitcoin’s long-term bottoms.It shows when long-term holders are under maximum pressure.
Current Situation:

NUPL is at 0.36
This means long-term holders are still in profit

👉 Historically, major Bitcoin rallies started when NUPL turned negative.

That’s when even strong holders were losing money — creating “maximum pain” before recovery.
📌 Key Point:

We are not at maximum pain yet, which suggests the market may not have reached a full bottom.

📉 2️⃣ MVRV Ratio – Entering the “Accumulation Zone”
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has entered the Accumulation Zone for the first time since May 2022.
hat is MVRV?
MVRV compares.

Market value (current price)Realized value (average purchase price)

When MVRV drops below 1.44, Bitcoin is considered:
✔️ Relatively undervalued

✔️ Attractive for long-term investors
But here’s the important warning:
⚠️ In 2022, when Bitcoin entered this zone, it still fell another 50% before bottoming.

Key Point:

Accumulation zone does NOT mean price can’t drop further.

It means smart investors are starting to pay attention.
🧠 What Does This Mean for Investors?

Here’s a simple breakdown:

The market lacks strong momentum.Long-term holders are still in profit.
True “panic selling” hasn’t happened yet.
Bitcoin looks closer to a buying opportunity — but not fully there.Historically, the biggest opportunities came when sentiment was extremely negative.⚖️ Overall Market Message
The indicators are not saying “buy now.”

They are saying:
The market is slowly moving toward conditions that often appear before major rebounds.More pessimism and less speculation may still be needed.Strong buying opportunities usually appear when nobody wants crypto.

📊 The data suggests we’re getting closer, but the “maximum opportunity” moment hasn’t arrived yet.

🔥 Final Takeaway

The biggest crypto gains historically happened when:
Sentiment was extremely negative
Investors felt hopelessLong-term holders were deeply underwater

We’re approaching that zone — but we’re not fully there yet.
$BTC
#Market_Update
#BTCNextMove

Meskipun judulnya menarik perhatian, sebagian besar trader setuju bahwa konteksnya penting: ini bukan prediksi, tetapi tes-stres ekstrem yang menjelaskan seberapa tangguh neraca MicroStrategy.
Bagaimana CT Bereaksi
Banyak trader di X menyebut level $8K murni hipotetis, menunjukkan bahwa itu akan membutuhkan penurunan sekitar 85–90% dari harga saat ini.
Yang lain mencatat bahwa bahkan selama peristiwa black-swan sebelumnya, Bitcoin tidak pernah mengunjungi kembali level terendah historis yang dalam setelah adopsi institusional matang.
Sebuah pandangan umum: jika BTC pernah mencapai $8K, lingkungan makro global sudah berada dalam wilayah krisis.