Gold Outlook — Base Case: Temporary Range, Then Uptrend Continuation
🌍 Macro background
The current macro environment continues to strongly support higher gold prices.
Global liquidity is expanding again, while the US dollar is gradually losing purchasing power in real terms. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is moving closer to a more aggressive easing phase and is already injecting liquidity into the financial system.
US Treasury yields — which historically show a negative correlation with gold — remain elevated, but the probability of a sustained decline is high as monetary policy turns more accommodative.
In parallel, global de-dollarization trends are accelerating, and central banks continue to increase their gold reserves despite historically high prices.
If this is not a constructive macro setup for precious metals, it is hard to imagine what would be.
📊 Technical structure
From a market-structure perspective, gold became overheated during the January rally due to gamma and short-squeeze dynamics.
The recent pullback has returned price to more neutral and sustainable levels.
After such stress phases, markets typically enter a re-accumulation range, rebuild positioning and only then continue the dominant trend.
Importantly, there are still no signs of capitulation or loss of interest in the gold and mining sector. Demand remains structurally strong.
🧭 Base scenario
My base forecast is a period of trading around the 4800 zone, forming a consolidation range.
For investors: gradual allocation during this phase is reasonable.
For traders: focus either on false breakdowns from the lower boundary or wait for a clean upside breakout accompanied by low-volatility expansion.
The next leg higher is likely to be smoother and structurally healthier than the emotional price action we saw in January.
Follow liquidity. Follow structure. Follow the trend.
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