Tulga09166

Is Bitcoin poised for another dramatic price increase similar to the one witnessed this year? Based on a recent and widely discussed analysis by 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder, the market may need to reset its expectations for the beginning of 2026. Snyder offers a cautious view on the forces that move markets and suggests the necessary ingredients for a major Bitcoin bull run may not be in place by next January.
Understanding the Potential Roadblocks
Snyder highlights several crucial elements that could stall another major rally. Although January often sees a resurgence of investment as portfolios are adjusted, she stresses that the overall mood of the market is paramount. Current levels of investor excitement are noticeably muted, a stark difference from the environment that powered past surges.
The central challenge, as Snyder identifies it, is that "The primary issues creating market instability right now are not likely to be settled quickly." This outlook suggests a prolonged phase of unpredictability rather than a rapid market recovery. The conditions that sparked the 2024 rally were unique and may not easily repeat themselves.
The Limits of Relying on ETF Data
While spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are a closely watched metric, Snyder warns against putting too much faith in them as a standalone signal. Yes, new capital traditionally enters in January, but she makes a key observation:
ETF purchases add liquidity but do not automatically drive prices higher.
The overall attitude of investors ultimately decides if that liquidity turns into a sustained rally.
The prevailing cautious stance in global markets impacts all risk assets, including crypto.
Snyder clarifies, "For a comparable Bitcoin rally to happen, we would need a substantial improvement in the general appetite for risk among investors." With ongoing global economic concerns, such a change seems difficult to achieve in the immediate future.
Could This Downturn Be a Positive Development?
This is where Snyder's analysis provides a counterintuitive note of optimism. She believes the current price pullback is due to a widespread move away from risk, not because of any inherent flaw in cryptocurrency. This difference is significant for those investing with a long-term view.
Several encouraging signals remain:
The correction is linked to broader economic factors, not problems within crypto.
Development and real-world use of Bitcoin's technology continue to advance.
Institutional engagement has persisted even through price fluctuations.
Snyder sees this decoupling of price from fundamentals as "an encouraging development for the future." It implies that when the wider market's mood eventually recovers, cryptocurrencies could be positioned for a powerful rebound.
Strategic Considerations for the Current Climate
With a potential delay in the next major rally, what approaches should investors consider? First, it's important to understand that Snyder is discussing timing, not declaring an end to Bitcoin's growth. The lack of a surge in January 2026 does not preclude one from happening later that year or beyond.
Some practical approaches include:
Maintaining a diversified investment timeline.
Prioritizing consistent, periodic investments over trying to time the market perfectly.
Watching indicators of adoption and utility as closely as price charts.
Being ready to evaluate potential buying opportunities during times of widespread fear.
As Snyder admits, it is "challenging to forecast Bitcoin's path for next January"—an honest acknowledgment of uncertainty that is often more valuable than false certainty.
The Broader Viewpoint Often Overlooked
While short-term price action grabs headlines, Snyder's perspective urges a longer-term view. The very issues making a near-term rally improbable—general risk aversion, macroeconomic hesitation—can set the stage for a future upswing.
Market history shows that crypto often goes through extended periods of consolidation before its next major leap. This current phase may represent exactly that. Patience and a focus on fundamentals may prove more rewarding than seeking quick profits.
As Snyder's analysis indicates, the fact that crypto's core value is separating from general market sentiment is a sign of maturation. It means the asset class is building its own value proposition, not just moving in sync with every wave in traditional finance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the core of Ophelia Snyder's prediction for Bitcoin?
She has expressed doubt that Bitcoin will see a strong rally at the start of 2026 like it did in early 2024, pointing to ongoing market volatility and low investor risk appetite as key reasons.
Does this mean Bitcoin's price will stagnate throughout 2026?
No. Snyder's comments specifically address the beginning of the year. Her analysis does not predict performance for the remainder of 2026 or the years following, only cautioning against expecting an immediate repeat of past gains.
Why can't large ETF inflows alone push the price up?
Snyder explains that while inflows are necessary for liquidity, a lasting bull market requires a broader positive shift in how investors feel about risk—a component that is currently missing.
Is the current market drop a negative indicator for crypto's health?
Interestingly, Snyder interprets it as a potentially positive sign, noting it's driven by macro sentiment rather than problems within the crypto ecosystem, suggesting the technology's foundation remains strong.
Should investors sell their Bitcoin based on this outlook?
Not necessarily. The analysis emphasizes strategic timing over long-term value. For many, such periods are viewed as a chance to build a position strategically rather than a signal to exit.
What could alter this projected timeline?
Significant positive changes in the regulatory landscape, a major acceleration in institutional adoption, or an improvement in the global economic climate could improve market sentiment faster than currently expected.
Share This Perspective
If you found this market insight useful, consider sharing it. Understanding diverse expert analyses helps the community make more considered decisions.
To learn more about the factors influencing Bitcoin's price, you can explore our related article on the key developments driving institutional adoption and market movements.

RWA（真实世界资产代币化）早已不是加密圈的概念炒作，而是席卷全球的金融新浪潮。2024年，全球代币化资产规模突破300亿美元，同比暴涨317%，一场关于资产流动性的彻底革命已然来临。一、RWA到底是什么？把“重资产”变“活现金”
简单说，RWA就是用区块链技术，将房地产、债券、充电桩、艺术品等真实资产，变成可拆分、可流转的数字代币。它一举解决了传统金融的三大痛点：
流动性不再是难题：传统房产交易要等半年，代币化后1万美元就能投资，二手交易1周搞定；
融资效率翻倍提升：摩根大通实测，代币化债券结算从T+3天缩至T+10分钟，成本直降75%；
投资门槛彻底清零：毕加索画作拆分成代币后，普通人花1万就能当“艺术品持有者”，告别精英垄断。
如今，房地产（38%）、债券与应收账款（32%）、另类资产（15%）已成RWA主力军，多元化资产数字化矩阵初步成型。
二、全球巨头集体“重仓”，不是跟风是共识
RWA的爆发，是全球金融巨头用真金白银投票的结果：
贝莱德：推出20亿“数字资产收入基金”，12家养老金机构跟风入局，主攻代币化房产与债券；
摩根大通：Onyx平台全年结算230亿代币化债券，成为银行系标杆；
美国银行：Q3财报单列“数字资产收入”，1.2亿营收来自RWA托管；
中国力量强势崛起：蚂蚁数科落地首单充电桩RWA项目，融资1亿；协鑫能科光伏资产代币化募资超2亿，年化收益达6.8%-8%。
巨头入场不仅带来资金，更搭建起“传统金融+区块链”的融合生态，让RWA从边缘走向主流。
三、2024合规元年：全球定调，创新有规可循
没有规矩的创新走不远，2024年全球主要经济体纷纷出台RWA监管规则：
美国：货币监理署明确“银行可提供数字资产托管”，扫清机构入场障碍；
欧盟：MiCA法规将RWA纳入“资产支持代币”监管，要求持牌运营、充分披露；
新加坡：推出“数字资产创新沙盒”，23家机构已落地RWA产品；
中国香港：先整治不合规模块，再推Ensemble沙盒聚焦固定收益、绿色金融，平衡“严监管”与“促创新”。
四、中国动作：从分散探索到生态协同
9月27日，全球资产数字化RWA生态联盟峰会在北京召开，新华网等近百家媒体报道。这场以“共筑生态·数融未来”为主题的盛会，汇聚政府、交易所、金融机构、科技企业等多方力量，探讨RWA政策导向与实践路径——标志着中国RWA生态从分散探索迈入协同发展新阶段。
五、未来三年：RWA将如何改写金融版图？
站在300亿美元的起点，RWA的未来清晰可见：
1. 2025年：监管与基建双落地，50%以上G20国家将出台专项法规，富达、道富等托管巨头推RWA专属服务，托管规模有望破1000亿美元，SWIFT或实现银行账户与区块链钱包互通；
2. 2026年：AI+跨链成“双引擎”，AI资产估值误差率降至3%以下，跨链交易占比达40%，RWA可在不同公链无缝流转；
3. 2027年：零售市场全面爆发，投资门槛降至10美元，零售投资者占比从15%升至35%，“人人投写字楼”“人人做专利股东”将像余额宝理财一样普遍。
RWA的本质，是数字技术对生产关系的重构。它不仅让资产流动更高效，更在推动金融权力再分配——当非洲咖啡合作社能直接对接欧洲消费者，当中国小微企业凭充电桩资产跨境融资，这场革命已超越技术，成为经济民主化的力量。摩根士丹利预测，到2030年全球RWA规模将达10万亿美元。现在的观察者，未来可能是规则制定者，而中国在监管与生态上的前瞻布局，正让我们在这场万亿竞赛中，占据合规创新的有利位置。