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The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions.
A divergence in global bitcoin BTC$68,994.93market sentiment is widening as U.S. institutional investors hold steady while offshore traders retreat from their positions.
The gap is clearest in futures markets. CME, the go-to platform for hedge funds and institutional desks in the U.S., shows traders are still paying a premium to stay long on bitcoin, according to NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro.
This is evident on a one-month annualized basis, essentially the markup for futures over spot prices, which remains higher than on its offshore counterpart, Deribit.
“The more pronounced drop in offshore basis suggests reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure,” Cipolaro wrote. “The widening spread between CME and Deribit basis functions as a real-time gauge of geographical risk appetite.”
Bitcoin earlier this month fell to $60,000 before rebounding. Some pinned the selloff on rising concerns that quantum computing will undermine the system's cryptographic security. NYDIG found that the numbers don’t back up that explanation.
For one, bitcoin’s performance has closely tracked that of publicly traded quantum-computing companies like IONQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS). If quantum risk were truly weighing on crypto, those stocks would be rising while bitcoin falls.
Instead, they dropped together, pointing to a broader decline in appetite for long-term, future-driven assets. On top of that, search data on Google Trends shows interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” rises when the price of BTC rises.

Rampant speculation on crypto derivatives platforms is fueling volatility and risking bitcoin’s image as a stable hedge, says BlackRock’s digital assets chief.

NEW YORK — While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is among the most successful product launches in Wall Street history, the crypto market’s growing reliance on leverage could be doing long-term damage to bitcoin’s BTC$68,938.58institutional appeal, according to Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock.
During a conversation with Anthony Pompliano and investor Dan Tapiero at the Bitcoin Investor Week conference in New York on Thursday, Mitchnick said that while bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, excessive speculation — particularly on leveraged derivatives platforms — is introducing instability that threatens the asset’s positioning as a serious portfolio hedge.
“These days where you have a tiny little thing that shouldn't have any price impact really at all — and if it does, should be small — like, for example, October 10th, some tariff-related thing, and next thing you know, [bitcoin] is down 20%,” Mitchnick said. “That’s because you get cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.”
While bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as a “global, scarce, decentralized monetary asset” remains intact, Mitchnick warned that the asset’s short-term trading behavior is starting to look dangerously similar to “levered NASDAQ” — a perception that may deter conservative allocators from entering the space.
“The facts are more on the side of how I characterized it,” he said, referring to bitcoin’s fundamental attributes. “But now the trading data, at least lately, looks very different, and the bar to adoption if it trades like levered NASDAQ is much, much, much higher.”
Mitchnick also pushed back on the idea that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like IBIT are contributing to volatility, pointing instead to perpetual futures platforms as the source of instability.
“There’s a misperception out there that it’s a bunch of hedge funds in ETFs that are creating volatility and selling; that’s not what we’re seeing,” he said. “On a week that was tumultuous, obviously, in the bitcoin market, we had 0.2% of the fund redeem. If there actually were hedge funds massively unwinding trades… you would have seen billions. We saw many billions liquidated on these levered platforms.”
Despite short-term turbulence, Mitchnick emphasized that BlackRock remains committed to digital assets as part of a broader financial transformation.
“We see ourselves as having the role of a bridge… between traditional finance and the digital asset world,” he said. “Over time, there’s certainly going to continue to be a greater role for digital assets and this technology theme in general for many of our clients.”

Ngày 15 tháng 2, thị trường toàn cầu sẽ bước vào tuần “bão dữ liệu”. Fed sẽ công bố biên bản cuộc họp chính sách tiền tệ tháng 1 vào thứ Năm lúc 03:00 (giờ Việt Nam), thị trường sẽ tìm kiếm thêm manh mối về lộ trình cắt giảm lãi suất trong năm 2026; số liệu GDP quý 4 sơ bộ của Mỹ và chỉ số giá PCE cốt lõi được công bố vào thứ Sáu lúc 21:30 sẽ trở thành tâm điểm chú ý. Là chỉ số lạm phát ưa thích của Fed, nếu PCE cao hơn kỳ vọng, có thể ảnh hưởng đến nhịp độ nới lỏng chính sách trong năm nay.
Về phía ngân hàng trung ương, nhiều quan chức Fed sẽ phát biểu dày đặc, RBA (Ngân hàng Dự trữ Australia) công bố biên bản họp, RBNZ (Ngân hàng Dự trữ New Zealand) công bố quyết định lãi suất. Thị trường dự báo chung rằng RBNZ sẽ giữ nguyên lãi suất, trong khi RBA có thể nhấn mạnh rủi ro lạm phát tăng trở lại.
Về diễn biến tài sản, vàng giao ngay duy trì dao động ở mức cao, trong tuần có lúc giảm mạnh rồi phục hồi và đóng cửa tăng; dầu thô tăng mạnh rồi giảm trở lại, thị trường lan truyền thông tin OPEC+ có thể khôi phục tăng sản lượng từ tháng 4; diễn biến đồng USD trở thành biến số then chốt, nếu không tạo đáy mới, có thể duy trì tương đối mạnh trong bối cảnh phán quyết thuế quan đang đến gần. Đồng thời, nhu cầu trái phiếu kho bạc Mỹ tăng, có thể kích hoạt một đợt tái phân bổ tài sản mới.
Về các sự kiện lớn, Tòa án Tối cao Hoa Kỳ sẽ công bố ý kiến vào ngày 20 tháng 2, trong đó bao gồm phán quyết liên quan đến chính sách thuế quan “Ngày Giải phóng” của Trump. Nếu phán quyết bất lợi, có thể gây ảnh hưởng lớn đến các biện pháp thuế quan liên quan, đồng thời tác động đến thương mại toàn cầu và tâm lý thị trường.
Về mảng doanh nghiệp, mùa báo cáo tài chính đang đi vào giai đoạn cuối. Walmart sẽ công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 4 năm tài chính, thị trường đặc biệt chú ý đến tăng trưởng mảng thương mại điện tử, ứng dụng AI và tác động từ thuế quan… Hướng dẫn (guidance) của họ có thể ảnh hưởng quan trọng đến tâm lý ngành bán lẻ và toàn thị trường.

As a first-year computer science student in Hanoi, Hoang Le started trading crypto from his university dorm room, egged on by his gamer friends who were making a killing.
At one point his digital holdings swelled to $200,000 -- around 50 times the average annual income in Vietnam.
But they crashed to zero when the bottom fell out of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in recent months.
Getting wiped out "hurt a lot", he told AFP, but he also learned a valuable lesson: he has come to think of the losses as "tuition fees".
"When profits were high, everyone became greedy," said Le, now 23, adding that "it was too good to be true".
Unlike neighbouring China which has banned cryptocurrencies outright, communist Vietnam has allowed blockchain technology to develop in a legal grey area -- barring its use for payments but letting people speculate unimpeded.
As a result the young-and-upwardly mobile country of 100 million has been at the forefront of crypto adoption, with an estimated 17 million people owning digital assets.
Only India, the United States and Pakistan have seen more widespread usage, according to a 2025 ranking by the consultancy Chainalysis.
But what once looked like first-mover advantage increasingly looks like a liability as investors stare down a crypto winter.
The price of bitcoin has almost halved since hitting a record high above $126,000 in October, and other digital tokens have slid even further.
Vietnamese crypto startups hawking everything from NFTs to blockchain-based lending and trading services have been hammered, with bankruptcies and layoffs roiling the industry.
"Many companies have shut down because of this crisis," said Tran Xuan Tien, head of Ho Chi Minh City's blockchain association.
He added that others are "downsizing and conserving capital to extend their runway".
Nguyen The Vinh, co-founder of blockchain firm Ninety Eight, told AFP his company has laid off nearly one-third of its staff since last year.
There was more "restructuring" to come, he added, given the gloomy outlook.

"The market will likely remain difficult for years, not just months, so we need backup plans."
Until recently, Vietnam's crypto scene was a wild west, with highly speculative ventures and outright Ponzi schemes flourishing alongside startups offering legitimate products.
The government warned about the dangers of crypto and broke up several huge scam operations, including one that allegedly swindled nearly $400 million from thousands of investors.
But it did not move to crush the industry as Beijing did, instead opening "a window for domestic businesses to experiment", according to Tien.
Under top leader To Lam, who has pursued sweeping growth-oriented reforms, Vietnam has formally embraced the blockchain industry and is gradually asserting control over the estimated $100 billion market.
Last year it passed a law recognising digital currencies, bringing them under a regulatory framework for the first time.
It came into effect last month but investors have questions about how it will be implemented.
Hanoi has also announced a five-year crypto trading pilot programme, which will allow Vietnamese firms to issue digital assets.
But lingering regulatory ambiguity has kept many firms based in the country from formally registering there, opting instead to file paperwork in places such as Singapore and Dubai.
Vinh says some firms are folding and others downsizing or pivoting because of both the "prolonged downturn and an unclear legal framework".
And new entities are struggling to gain traction as investor sentiment sours.

Huu, 24, said fundraising for his crypto-product startup has suddenly become much harder, and asked that only his first name be used for fear of hurting his business.
Foreign investors were once enticed by promises of 400 and 500 percent returns, he said, but were now discovering they "might lose everything".
"Over the past few months, things have gone downhill badly."
Founders including Huu and Vinh said the current downturn is part of a natural business cycle, and stronger firms would eventually emerge offering better products.
But that is cold comfort for the nearly 55 percent of individual Vietnamese crypto investors who according to one market analysis reported losses last year.
In Vietnam, a lot of people trade crypto," Huu said.
"When prices fall, people complain about losses and the overall mood becomes very gloomy."

Despite the price recovery, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” indicating underlying market anxiety.

Bitcoin BTC$69,822.71 has clawed its way back above $70,000, recovering from a sharp drop near $60,000 earlier in the month.
The cryptocurrency is up nearly 5% in the last 24-hour period, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose 6.2% in the same period.
The rebound comes as investors react to a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print and signs of renewed risk appetite. The Consumer Price Index for January rose 2.4% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.5%.
That gave markets a reason to believe interest rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected, lifting both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates make risk assets more attractive, as the rate of return on risk-free or low-risk investments lowers.
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are currently weighing a 26% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in April, up from 19% earlier in the week. On Polymarket, the odds rose from 13% to 20%.
Still, the rally masks deeper fractures beneath the surface.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to reflect in deep anxiety, hovering near extreme fear levels last seen during the 2022 bear market over the collapse of FTX. The index has been sitting in “extreme fear” since the beginning of the month.
Bitwise analysts noted that $8.7 billion in bitcoin losses were realized in the last week, second only to the fallout from the 3AC collapse.
“Nevertheless, the rotation of supply from weaker hands to conviction investors has historically been associated with market stabilisation phases, though such redistribution requires time to fully unfold,” Bitwise wrote.
Bitcoin treasury firms were sitting on over $21 billion of unrealized losses, an all-time high. Bitcoin’s recovery has seen that figure drop to $16.9 billion.
Thinner trading volumes are supporting the current rally during the weekend and seller exhaustion. The $8.7 billion in realized losses in the last week could be seen as a “textbook capitulation event.”
Yet, the extreme fear gripping the market poses a challenge. As Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson told CoinDesk, the market’s “main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower.”
That fear is seeing investors take any coming rally as a chance to sell. Whether that will keep on materializing or the shift to higher-conviction holders will see the market change directions remains to be seen.

Evan Cheng and Stephen Mackintosh said 2025 marked a turning point for institutional adoption, with tokenization and agentic commerce emerging as the next frontier.

What to know:
Executives cited ETF flows, DAT growth and major trading firms entering crypto.Tokenization and instant settlement could blur the line between traditional and decentralized markets.Low-latency design and composable tooling aim to power AI-driven and tokenized financial use cases.
Institutional interest in crypto is accelerating even as markets fluctuate, according to Sui executives at Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
Stephen Mackintosh, chief investment officer of Sui Group Holdings, called 2025 a “landmark year for institutional adoption,” pointing to the boom in digital asset treasury (DAT) vehicles and the success of spot bitcoin ETFs.
“Post the Genius Act, we’ve seen so much more institutional demand and awareness for what the promise of crypto could deliver,” he said, particularly around tokenization and stablecoins.
While sentiment has fluctuated, Mackintosh argued the structural shift is clear. “The market, despite all of the sentiment being low, has never been greater,” he said, citing record options volumes and the entrance of major firms such as Citadel and Jane Street into crypto markets. He described a long-term trend in which “the biggest institutions in finance in the world” are investing in infrastructure and talent to capture market share.
Mysten Labs CEO Evan Cheng framed the next phase as convergence rather than competition between traditional finance and decentralized finance. In his view, TradFi products often operate on “T+1 or T+whatever,” while DeFi is “T+0”—a “strictly better product” in settlement terms.
The convergence, he suggested, will emerge through tokenization. “You acquire [an asset] and immediately you can collateralize and borrow against it,” Cheng said, enabling DeFi strategies layered on traditional exposure.
On whether ETFs compete with DeFi, Cheng said products will evolve. Institutional on-ramps may begin conservatively but could incorporate yield or other on-chain mechanics over time.
Both executives emphasized infrastructure as Sui’s differentiator. Mackintosh described Sui as “a differentiated proposition” built by former Facebook engineers behind Libra, offering low latency and high throughput suited for emerging use cases such as “agentic commerce”, the intersection of AI and onchain transactions.