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While bitcoin has shown relative strength against gold since the war in Iran broke out, investors are better off holding off "dry powder" while prices swing wildly on headlines, said Wintermute's Bryan Tan.
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Bitcoin slipped to $69,000 but held up better than many traditional assets as Middle East tensions and attacks on energy infrastructure rattled global markets.
Oil prices swung back toward $100 a barrel, stoking renewed inflation fears and expectations that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer. Meanwhile, gold and silver tumbled to their weakest levels since early February.
Bitcoin has outperformed gold since the Iran war, but the lack of follow-through above $75,000 suggests investors should remain cautious with dip buying, Wintermute trader Bryan Tan said.
Bitcoin drifted toward $69,000 on Thursday as the deepening conflict in Iran is spiraling across the Middle East, hitting energy infrastructure and spilling into global markets.
Oil remained at the center of the action, as investors pulled back from risk amid fresh headlines around attacks on energy infrastructure. Prices swung back toward $100 a barrel after a Politico report said the U.S. is not considering a crude export ban, reversing earlier declines and keeping inflation worries alive.
That backdrop weighed on traditional markets, especially as investors began to consider that central banks might delay rate cuts or even mull rate hikes, wary of inflationary pressures from an energy shock and supply disruptions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid nearly 1% in morning trading, both hitting fresh 2026 lows.
The more notable move, though, came from metals. Gold dropped 5% to around $4,500 an ounce, its lowest since early February, while silver fell 6.6%, extending a sharp unwind after weeks of outsized gains.
Crypto, by comparison, looked relatively steady. Bitcoin was last trading around $69,400, down about 2.6% on the day. Most major tokens, including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB and solana (SOL), were all down, but losses stayed under 3%, and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index was off about 2.1%.
Crypto-linked stocks also moved lower, though not to the same extent seen elsewhere. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) slipped 1.7%, bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) fell 2.6%, while stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) pulled back 6%, giving up some ground after more than doubling over the past three weeks.
The simultaneous drop in both gold and bitcoin points to broad de-risking rather than a rotation into safe havens, said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. Rising energy prices are feeding into inflation expectations, reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" interest rate outlook and tightening liquidity — a difficult mix for risk assets, he added.
Still, bitcoin has outperformed gold by around 20% during the initial phase of the Iran conflict, noted Bryan Tan, trader at Wintermute, an unusual dynamic for an asset typically treated as a riskier tech name. But the lack of follow-through above $75,000 suggests markets remain cautious and rangebound.
"When sentiment swings on each headline about the conflict, and correlation to oil prices are so elevated, being flat is a strong position," he said. "We lean towards reserving dry powder until we see
a meaningful confirmation in either direction or a material change in market conditions.
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The $20,000 put on bitcoin is the third-most-popular strike, with $596 million in notional value, alongside major positioning at $75,000 and $125,000 on Deribit.
Despite geopolitical tension, options data, including a 0.63 put-call ratio, suggests the market remains slightly bullish overall
Nearly $600 million worth of $20,000 bitcoin put options has emerged as the third most popular strike ahead of Deribit’s quarterly expiry, showing how traders are positioning for extreme downside scenarios due to the Middle East conflict.
A put option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell bitcoin at a predetermined price. With bitcoin trading below $70,000, the $20,000 strike is considered deep out of the money, meaning it would only gain value in the event of a sharp market collapse, or a 70% drawdown from current prices.
Roughly $596 million in notional value, the total dollar value of underlying contracts, is concentrated at the $20,000 strike, making it one of the three most dominant positions. The others sit at $75,000, with $687 million, and $125,000, with $740 million, highlighting a wide spread of expectations across both downside and upside scenarios.
Looking at it from face value, large positioning in a $20,000 put option could suggest fears of a meltdown. However, the structure of the market is more nuanced.
Much of this activity is likely driven by traders selling these far out of the money puts to collect premium, reflecting the low probability of bitcoin falling to $20,000 rather than a direct hedge against a crash. In other words, it is often a strategy tied to income generation or volatility positioning, rather than outright bearish conviction.
The total notional value of bitcoin options expiring on Deribit is $13.5 billion. While, even though the market is in extreme fear, the options market still leans slightly bullish, with a put call ratio of 0.63, indicating more call options than puts, typically used to express bullish views. Total open interest stands at 195,719 BTC, with 120,236 BTC in calls and 75,482 BTC in puts.
Meanwhile, the max pain level, the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless, is $75,000, which could potentially act as a magnet into expiry. As options market makers often hedge around this level, pulling price toward where the greatest number of contracts expire worthless.
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