Chamath Palihapitiya Channel

Consider a hypothetical situation where the United States and China share victory in the race for artificial intelligence. Imagine a reality where the technical capacities of both nations are virtually identical. In this environment, manufacturing potential is mirrored; whatever one side constructs, the other can duplicate. This parity extends to military innovation, meaning any next-generation weaponry developed by one nation can be equally developed by the other.

The result of such equilibrium is a strategic détente. Both powers would likely restrict their activities to their respective hemispheres, effectively agreeing to non-interference. To maintain this status, each superpower would rely on a small circle of specific nations for essential capital, expertise, and natural resources. These key partners would operate under strict exclusivity, collaborating solely with either the US or China, but never both simultaneously.

Consequently, the remaining nations of the world would effectively devolve into vassal states. Without domestic AI capabilities or strategic resources of their own, these countries would be forced to lobby for security, seeking status as a protectorate under one of the two giants. If this scenario were to materialize, it would mark a massive transformation in the current global order.

By dedicating just 15 minutes of my time to clawdbot, I successfully secured a 15% reduction in my car insurance expenses.

A small group of calculating Union CEOs currently maintains a tight grip on California. These organizers owe it to their dues-paying members to show the bravery required to speak the truth. By pushing for the Billionaire Tax, they are actively dismantling the tech community, a move that effectively sabotages the state economy. This strategy threatens to force California into bankruptcy. When the budget and economy eventually collapse, the unfortunate result will be a reduction in earnings for the union members themselves.

One effective method for recognizing the finest nations globally is to determine whether accumulating wealth is viewed favorably within their borders. Places like Singapore, Denmark, and Switzerland manage to applaud personal achievement while maintaining sturdy social safety nets. Conversely, nations that fail to appreciate this dynamic inevitably slide into economic obscurity, often ending up subservient to foreign powers. While it is undeniably important to look after the well-being of all citizens, providing such care requires the specific resources and leverage that are only generated through success. Regrettably, numerous countries across Europe serve as illustrations of what happens when this balance is not maintained.

To distinguish the premier nations of the world from the rest, one need only determine whether their culture celebrates affluence. History demonstrates that any state failing to embrace wealth creation inevitably fades into economic obscurity, ultimately becoming a subordinate dependent of other powers. While ensuring the welfare of all citizens is a fundamental duty, such support relies on the leverage and resources that are exclusively generated through achievement. Regrettably, numerous European nations currently illustrate the consequences of failing to grasp this essential reality.

Control over California is currently in the hands of a few calculating Union CEOs rather than the union members themselves. These leaders should demonstrate the courage to be transparent with their dues-paying constituents. They need to explain that the Billionaire Tax is poised to dismantle the tech community, which will severely damage the state economy. This course of action threatens to drive California into bankruptcy and destroy the livelihoods of union members when the economic bottom falls out. It is essential for these executives to confront their membership and take responsibility for what they have done.

A select few calculating Union CEOs, rather than the union members themselves, are currently holding California captive. These organizers must summon the courage to inform their dues-paying constituents that they are poised to devastate the California economy by dismantling the local tech community with this "Billionaire Tax." Such actions will inevitably drive California into bankruptcy and destroy the earnings of union members when the state budget collapses. These leaders need to be brave enough to face their membership and admit what they have done.

You can determine which countries are the greatest in the world simply by asking if it is considered cool to be rich in that location. History shows that every nation answering this incorrectly drifts into economic irrelevance and ultimately becomes a subordinate dependency of another state.

Based on the data displayed in the chart, California relies on the top 1% of its taxpayers to cover over 33% of the total tax burden. Even more strikingly, the highest 0.1% of earners—a group of approximately 17,500 individuals—supplies more than 16% of all tax revenue. This illustrates a precarious situation where a tiny segment of a 40 million strong population underwrites a massive proportion of the state's income. Speaking from the perspective of someone in this tax bracket, I can state clearly that our tolerance has been exhausted. Unless this aggressive approach to taxation ceases, we will relocate. Coordination is already underway among various groups to depart en masse. Ultimately, this will leave the middle class solely responsible for funding the wasteful spending of elected politicians who seem incapable of stopping themselves.

Based on the data illustrated here, California relies on the top 1% of taxpayers to fund more than 33% of the total tax dollars collected. To narrow it down further, a group comprising roughly 17,500 individuals—representing the top 0.1%—shoulders over 16% of the entire revenue load. The core issue highlighted is that a tiny fraction of residents is sustaining the revenues for a state boasting a population of 40M. Speaking from the perspective of someone within this bracket, I can state unequivocally that we have reached our limit. Unless this chaotic approach to taxation ceases, we are prepared to relocate, and indeed, specific groups are currently organizing to leave together. Consequently, the middle class would be left to solely finance the wasteful spending of elected representatives who lack the discipline to control their expenditures.

With a total population of 40M, California relies on a very select group to fund a massive proportion of its budget. According to the data presented, the top 1% of taxpayers contribute more than 33% of all tax dollars collected. Drilling down further, the top 0.1%—comprising approximately 17,500 individuals—are responsible for generating over 16% of all tax revenues.

As a member of this specific bracket, I can assert categorically that our tolerance is exhausted. Unless this pattern of tax insanity is halted, we are prepared to leave. Groups of us are already coordinating to relocate en masse. Consequently, the middle class would remain behind to shoulder the financial burden of waste created by elected officials who lack the discipline to stop spending.

The illustrated chart indicates that more than 33% of all tax dollars are generated by the top 1% of taxpayers in California. Narrowing the focus further, the top 0.1%—which amounts to approximately 17,500 individuals—accounts for more than 16% of total tax revenues. The critical insight here is that within a population of 40 million, a massive share of state revenue is funded by a select few. Speaking as one of these contributors, I can promise that we will relocate if this tax situation is not rectified. Consequently, the middle class will remain behind to solely bear the cost of the waste created by elected officials who seem unable to curb their spending.

President Trump possesses the power to bring this to reality, and doing so would fundamentally transform America.

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115951002275904202

As indicated in the image below, the blue states currently have electricity prices that are as much as 4x the rates of the red states.

This difference is not due to any technological inferiority in those blue states, but rather specific policy decisions that have driven competition out and prices up.

As we have discussed extensively on the Pod, the Great SaaS Meltdown has officially begun, and there is no turning back.

So, what exactly is taking place?

In short, the strategy of high growth with low or no profitability is no longer a winning formula. There are now major questions regarding the durability of that growth in the short term, and—due to AI—the potential for profits in the long term. Every SaaS company has sold a specific dream to investors and employees: grow rapidly now and harvest significant cash flow later. With the advent of AI, that fundamental assumption may be entirely out the window.

The critical threshold question now is this: Will their growth be overtaken by a much cheaper, AI-developed solution?

If you are a venture-supported SaaS startup built on legacy Heuristics+APIs+CRUD products, it is likely that a new AI-oriented workflow is coming for your market share.

Private market investors recognize this shift and believe that capital used to fund short-term growth will not be rewarded. Meanwhile, public market investors no longer believe long-term profitability is possible. They would rather pivot into sectors they consider more resilient.

This represents a change in the risk calculus that has existed for the past 15 years, explaining the trends visible in the chart below.

Good luck to all the players!

I am not sure how many people are aware of this, but in SF, a union is proposing fines for companies whose CEO is paid more than 100x their median employee.

Again, similar to the asset seizure tax, the proceeds would be used to pay for various services that could be funded if there was instead a focus on cutting waste.

It is time to declare an end to winners! Frankly, they simply make the rest of us feel bad. Rather than focusing on self-improvement, I prefer to wallow in resentment of you—precisely because you are a winner! How dare you!

I believe the moment has arrived for everyone to become an equal loser. Let us dedicate ourselves to teaching our kids to be losers. Imagine how great it will be!

Consider the new standard:
* Don't study—whatever, your grades do not matter.
* Can't read—it is okay, we will subsidize you.
* Won't work—no worries, here is a handout.

Equal opportunity losing is way better and more just than unequal winning! I think we can all agree on that!

The debate surrounding the “Billionaire Tax” has revealed a stark truth:

A small faction is attempting to normalize the behavior of unaccomplished opportunists who avoid making difficult decisions, preferring instead to take from winners—even if doing so is illegal or unconstitutional. Pursuing this path would effectively torch the 4th largest economy in the world! This demonstrates just how little regard exists for our collective future.

So, do we want to tell our children that failing to strive is acceptable? That they shouldn't try, but simply take from others? Or do we want to teach them that you get out of a system what you put in, and that adults must step up to make hard choices?

Let’s vote on the tax so we can decide where the State of California stands and ultimately determine when this insane push to socialism ends.

As forecasted in our annual predictions episode to start the year, copper is the only game in town—unless someone shows up with super conductivity or carbon nanotubes. AI acts as a huge demand driver for this very under-resourced material.

This is truly exciting news, and I am personally delighted for my friends Andrew Feldman and G42/MGX.

As I have mentioned previously on @theallinpod, we are on the verge of a renaissance in decode silicon. This is a critical step as we establish AI as the default stack for applications over the next decade and beyond.

With that in mind, I believe the early PC maker wars of the 80s and 90s offer a useful analogy for understanding where the puck is going…