Bitcoin to $38K by October? NYDIG Maps the Bear-Case Path
NYDIG just outlined a scenario where $BTC falls toward $38,000-$39,000 by October, extending its decline to roughly 70% from the $126,080 peak. The reason?
This cycle may still be missing the kind of capitulation usually seen near a real market bottom.
The firm says leverage, not strong spot demand, is driving the current moves, while more than half of all Bitcoin sits at an unrealized loss. If the 2025-2026 correction follows the timing of the 2022 bear market, $BTC could still have another painful leg lower.
But NYDIG was clear: this is a historical scenario, not a direct forecast. Other analysts see support closer to $59,000-$60,000, while Galaxy Digital also sees a possible move near $40,000. For now, the market still has no clear agreement on where the real bottom sits.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
Approximately 38% of $BTC 's circulating supply has remained unmoved for more than four years, highlighting the growing share of long-dormant coins on the network. Some of these coins are held by long-term investors, while others may be permanently lost.
$SOL Solana has become the leading blockchain network by real-world asset (RWA) holders, surpassing 300,130 users. Additionally, the platform supports trading for over 2,120 distinct categories of RWAs
BTC, Ethereum, and $XRP are getting a major regulatory upgrade. Japan's parliament has passed an amendment that reclassifies crypto as a financial product instead of only a payment tool.
Look at the changes: lawmakers are preparing a flat 20% crypto tax, tougher insider-trading rules, annual issuer disclosures, and a possible path toward spot crypto ETFs.
The important part is not only lower taxes. The important part is the legal status. By regulating crypto under the same framework as investment products, Japan is making it easier for traditional financial firms to enter the market.
My take is simple: Japan is no longer treating $BTC as a separate experiment. It is slowly bringing it into the traditional financial system.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
$SOL recorded the highest 24-hour DEX trading volume at $4.15 billion, ahead of BNB Chain and Robinhood Chain.
The strong trading activity shows continued growth across the Solana ecosystem, with more users choosing its decentralized exchanges for buying and selling digital assets.
DEX trading volume is a indicator of blockchain activity because it reflects how much trading happens directly on-chain.
Solana's lead shows it remains one of the most active networks, while BNB Chain and Robinhood Chain continue to rank among the top blockchains for decentralized trading.
US CPI cooled to 3.5%, down from 4.2% last month, giving markets exactly what they wanted.
Within the first hour after the release: • Over $135M in crypto shorts were liquidated. • $BTC surged toward $64.9K. • Most major altcoins turned green. • The S&P 500 also moved higher.
Lower inflation = higher expectations for easier monetary policy, and the market wasted no time pricing it in.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
Ripple Backs UK Tokenization Strategy as Executive Disclosures Stun $XRP Markets 🇬🇧
The Commercial Pivot: Ripple Labs has formally backed the UK HM Treasury's Wholesale Digital Markets taskforce, establishing a regulated foothold in Britain's ambitious financial modernization push. Ripple estimates that the state's transition toward blockchain-based settlement rails could add a massive £33 billion annually to the UK economy by 2035.
The Technical Case: This is not a symbolic endorsement. Ripple is aggressively pitching its ledger capabilities for real-world, on-chain bonds, repurchases, and fund settlements, arguing that these enterprise-grade rails settle faster and at a fraction of legacy transaction costs.
The Near-Collapse Confession: While Ripple positions itself at the table with elite global regulators, CEO Brad Garlinghouse dropped a bombshell confession. He disclosed that company leadership discussed shutting down completely and distributing its XRP holdings to shareholders just days after the SEC filed its devastating 2020 lawsuit. Outside legal counsel explicitly warned them that the business could not be saved, advising executives to cut a deal to protect themselves.
My Asset Assessment: Ripple ultimately chose to fight, spending a brutal $150 million in legal fees over four years to survive. But while this UK regulatory footprint is a massive win for Ripple's corporate credibility, the $XRP token remains heavily range-bound, struggling to break past its $1.10 resistance level. The correlation between enterprise ledger adoption and raw retail token demand remains deeply broken, meaning Ripple can rewrite global clearing rules while the token continues to grind sideways. #Ripple #XRP #XRPEFT #UK
The Sovereign Liquidity Shift: US Government Moves $300M in Seized Crypto to Coinbase Prime
The US Government has triggered a wave of speculative panic across digital asset markets, executing a massive $300 million transfer of seized $BTC and $ETH directly to Coinbase Prime. On-chain analytics firm Arkham tracked the aggressive movements on July 13, detailing a dual-asset transfer that immediately raised concerns over impending government liquidations.
The transaction data exposes a highly coordinated, multi-source asset consolidation:
The Bitcoin Tranches: Federal wallets routed a total of 3,940 $BTC (valued at approximately $244 million) to the institutional platform. The tranches included 2,874.9 BTC seized from the Ryan Farace narcotics case and 925.5 BTC connected to the historic BTC-e exchange shutdown.
The Ethereum Injection: Simultaneously, the government dispatched 30,014 ETH (valued at roughly $53 million) associated with the Brian Krewson money-laundering case directly to the same Coinbase Prime deposit address.
My market view: While retail traders instantly treat any exchange-bound transfer as a definitive sell signal, the reality is far more nuanced. Coinbase Prime operates as a primary custodian, meaning this consolidation could simply be an operational restructuring of the government's massive $20.1 billion, 324,552 BTC portfolio.
However, the timing is highly sensitive; with President Trump's March 2025 executive order mandating that seized Bitcoin be funneled into a Strategic Reserve, any actual market liquidation by federal agencies would signal a direct conflict between administrative policy and active agency operations. #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #Ad
Solana has reached a major milestone, processing over 1 billion non-vote transactions in a single week for the first time. This surge reflects real user activity across DeFi, payments, gaming, token transfers, Al applications, and other on-chain use cases not just validator consensus messages. Network activity has more than doubled since the start of 2026, highlighting growing adoption and increasing demand for Solana's high-speed, low-cost infrastructure.
As on-chain usage continues to climb, all eyes are on whether this momentum will translate into stronger ecosystem growth and renewed interest in SOL.
CPI, PPI and the CLARITY Act: Crypto Faces a Critical Week
The crypto market is heading into one of its busiest weeks of the month.
With $BTC trading near $63,000 and the total market cap already slipping, a few major U.S. events could quickly decide whether investors buy the dip or reduce risk.
First comes the June CPI report on July 14, with annual inflation expected to remain near 4.2%.
Then, July 15 brings the PPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress. A hawkish message could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto, while softer comments may bring rate-cut hopes back into focus.
Jobless claims follow on July 16, before attention shifts toward the CLARITY Act hearing on July 17. Lawmakers are expected to discuss an updated market structure bill, but several important provisions remain unresolved. With geopolitical tension still weighing on risk assets, four days of inflation data, Fed commentary, employment numbers, and crypto regulation could make this one of the most volatile weeks of July.
#BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?#
Who Really Owns Bitcoin? The Numbers Might Surprise You
As of June 2026, individuals remain the largest holders of $BTC, controlling 66.1% of the entire 21 million supply.
The rest is spread across:
Businesses: 7.8% Funds & ETFs: 7.2% Estimated Lost Forever: 7.7%
Despite growing institutional adoption, Bitcoin is still overwhelmingly in the hands of everyday holders. Meanwhile, every coin believed to be permanently lost makes the remaining supply even scarcer.
Scarcity isn't just part of Bitcoin's design, it's becoming more evident with every passing cycle!
Strategy sold $466.7 million worth of MSTR shares last week without selling any of its $BTC.
Its Bitcoin holdings remain at 843,775 BTC, while its US dollar reserve increased by $450 million to $3 billion.
Growing its cash reserve while keeping its Bitcoin untouched gives Strategy more financial flexibility.
With one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holdings in the world, the company continues to strengthen its balance sheet while staying committed to its long-term Bitcoin strategy.
The USA plans to charge for all passes by seizing the Strait of Hormuz. With the plan announced by Trump, they will have started to tax the whole world. Iran's meaningless attacks are entirely for the USA and Israel. Who do you think the leaders of Iran serve?
Other world countries are just watching. Unfortunately, our world is getting worse every day. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies were adding excitement to our lives, but that excitement is about to disappear...
#Ripple $XRP just got full CASP authorization from Luxembourg's CSSF under #MICA.
I believe it follows the preliminary approval they picked up in June. This completes their compliance and lets them offer regulated crypto payments to banks, corporates, and businesses across all 30 EEA countries.
Cassie Craddock, their MD for UK & Europe, said: "Ripple enters the post-transitional MICA era fully compliant and ready to scale. Institutions want to work with regulated partners, and we're licensed to meet that demand."
Eric Trump Reportedly Loses Nearly $600M as American Bitcoin Stock Plunges
According to Bloomberg, Eric Trump has suffered a paper loss of nearly $600 million following the sharp decline in American $BTC shares. Since the company's Nasdaq debut, the stock has fallen to an all-time low.
Before the sell-off, Eric Trump's stake was valued at more than $600 million. However, after the stock's collapse and a reverse stock split, the value of his holdings reportedly dropped to around $28 million.
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