Here’s 12 brutal mistakes I made (so you don’t have to))
Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing. You’re not early. You’re someone else's exit.
Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away. No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless.
Lesson 3: Stories beat tech I used to back projects with amazing tech. The market backed the ones with the best story. The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does.
Lesson 4: Liquidity is key If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes. It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless. Liquidity = freedom.
Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon Crypto messes with your emotions. People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them. If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win.
Lesson 6: Take security seriously - I’ve been SIM-swapped. - I’ve been phished. - I’ve lost wallets.
Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing. Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump. Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth.
Lesson 8: Regulation is coming Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard. Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted. Plan for the future — not just for hype.
Lesson 9: Communities are everything A good dev team is great. But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last. I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture.
Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late. Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise. There are no shortcuts.
Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention. That’s when I made my best moves. If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit.
Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade. No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house. Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on.
7 years. Countless mistakes. Hard lessons. If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing. Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons.
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA! 📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
Many believe the market needs trillions to get the altseason.
But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump. Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20? Wrong! Here's the secret
I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap.
They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana.
These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩ But first, let's clarify some concepts:
Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset.
It is determined by two components:
➜ Asset's price ➜ Its supply
Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.
Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply.
How most people think, even those with years of market experience:
● Example: $STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap. "To double the price, you would need $1B in investments."
This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity.
Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value.
Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity.
For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits.
Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool. We have: - Price: $1 - Market Cap: $1B - Liquidity in pair: $100M ➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B.
The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions. Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread. Memcoin creators often use this strategy.
Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools.
This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors.
You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price.
Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research. I hope you've found this article helpful. Follow me @Bluechip for more. Like/Share if you can #BluechipInsights
Most people treat hashrate as the cause. The data says it’s mostly the effect.
Price sets miner revenue. Revenue drives rig economics. Rig economics drive deployment/shutdown decisions. Hash rate adjusts with a lag. Difficulty adjusts last.
Most important number: -12.8% hashrate gap (Actual: 901M TH/s vs price-implied: 1,033M TH/s)
What that means: This is not “price running ahead of infrastructure.” Price dropped sharply, and hashrate is still absorbing that shock through the lag structure.
Key numbers: • Price → HR lead: ~30–34 days (cross-corr peak r≈0.196) • Best regression lag: 34d • Fit: R² 0.723 (lagged) vs 0.647 (contemporaneous), +11.7% • Elasticity: +1% BTC price → +0.61% HR after ~34d Granger: Price Granger-predicts HR at lags 2 and 5; HR does not robustly Granger-predict price
Core insight: Actual hashrate is falling faster than the lagged-price model would imply.
Bottom line: Price is the signal. Hash rate is delayed confirmation.
First-principles view: Bitcoin mining is a delayed, frictional feedback system: price shocks first, hashrate responds with inertia, and difficulty stabilizes block timing afterward.
• Bitcoin is still down -50% from its all-time high. • Deeper drawdowns (-70% to -80%) are possible. But on-chain + structural data suggest we should start thinking about where a bottom could form.
1. Spot ETF flows are driving the drawdown • Spot BTC ETF drawdown from ATH: -$8.2B • Largest ETF drawdown on record. Price is now 17% below the average buying price of ETF holders (~$79K). Structural pressure, not random selling.
2. Leverage is getting flushed • Open Interest dropped from $45.5B → $21.7B • Especially over the last 7 days: a -27% decline Speculative excess is unwinding. This is how bottoms start to build.
3. Short-Term Holders are deeply underwater • STH Realized Price: $92,458 • STH MVRV: 0.72 That’s 28% below ATH realized value. Lowest STH MVRV since July 2022. Yes, it can go lower. But historically, this is where risk/reward improves significantly.
4. Technicals align with on-chain Price is testing: • Previous ATH • Top of prior range • Major support cluster Similar structures marked cycle bottoms in prior phases. Technical is also on a very important support cluster. Previous ATH, Top of earlier range. Similar bottom happend in previous cycle
5. But bottoms are a process, not an event If we mirror prior cycles from April 19, 2024: • 2012 pattern (777 days) → June 4, 2026 • 2016 pattern (889 days) → September 24, 2026 • 2020 pattern (925 days) → October 30, 2026 Broad window: June – December 2026 Historical sweet spot: September – November 2026
6. Sentiment is the final piece • When engagement is dead • When timelines are quiet • When nobody cares That’s usually when opportunity is highest. You still have runway before the historical window. Stay sharp.
This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research. 📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
If price continues to hold below the weekly open, the CME gap below (around the previous daily open) becomes the primary LTF objective.
One of my main plans from $66K was for price to sweep the external range highs, and that’s exactly the scenario Im gravitating towards. This remains my key area of interest for shorts.
If the weekly open is flipped into support, I expect a sweep of $71.5K.
From there, I’ll be watching for a deviation toward $73.8K (previous high of the 6-month range).
If momentum extends, there’s room for potential upside into $75K, where I may consider additional short adds.
I’ll be using fractionalized entries for this short plan.
That said, I’m not sizing heavily on shorts right now. Although the short term trend remains bearish and we’re technically still in a bear market, the HTF RR currently favors upside liquidity before a larger move down.
Once sufficient short liquidity is swept, I expect a move back toward $60K. This may take several weeks, possibly a month to develop.
Hope this helps you understand my plans.
This post is for information and education only and is not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile and high risk. Do your own research. 📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
Gamma Expiring: 20 Feb (13.8%): first meaningful reduction in pinning 27 Feb (26.5%): largest single unlock; this is the key date 27 Mar (22.2%): second large unlock that can extend volatility
Bluechip
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$BTC : the numbers that matter
Most important short term number $65,445 (gamma flip)
ALTCOINS MAY HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED AGAINST BITCOIN.
After 12+ months of downside, broken charts, and collapsing sentiment, the structure under the Altcoin market is starting to shift.
The Others Dominance chart which tracks how altcoins perform relative to Bitcoin is flashing early signs of recovery.
Here’s what’s happening right now:
Others dominance has already reclaimed the levels we saw before the October 10th crash.
But, Bitcoin is still trading roughly 42% below its highs from that same period.
So while BTC is still structurally weak, Altcoins are already stabilizing and gaining relative strength. This divergence usually signals seller exhaustion.
If alts were still in heavy distribution, dominance would keep falling.
But it isn’t.
Instead, it has risen 17% in just the last two months which means the forced selling phase in alts may already be behind us.
We saw a similar setup in 2019-2020.
When the Fed ended QE, Bitcoin continued correcting for months. But the Others dominance bottomed and never revisited those lows again, not even during the March 2020 crash.
That marked the start of a multi year alt uptrend. Now add more bullish signals on top:
• RSI on Others dominance has crossed above its moving average for the first time since July 2023, historically this crossover has preceded alt strength phases.
• Russell 2000 just broke its highs after a delayed cycle, small caps often lead liquidity rotation before altcoins move.
• ISM has climbed to 52, highest in 40 months. A move above 55 historically aligns with strong performance in high-beta assets like alts.
• Core inflation just printed a 5-year low which could increase the odds of more Fed easing.
• Gold and Silver rallies are cooling and often this leads to a rotation from hard assets to risk assets.
Structurally, the market is reset:
Most altcoins are still down 80–90%. Leverage has been flushed. Sentiment is near cycle lows. Positioning is extremely light.
Historically, mid-term election year has been bearish for the crypto market, so it's possible that we could see more sideways accumulation until Q3/Q4 before a reversal. Source: BullTheory
History repeats itself but in a different language each time. Gold has long been the “compass” that moves first during major shifts in the global financial system. In 2016, gold rallied first. A few months later, Bitcoin exploded, delivering a 30x surge. A similar pattern appeared in 2019: gold paved the way with its advance, and Bitcoin followed in a powerful rally that extended into 2021. Now, at the beginning of 2026, the scene appears to be repeating. Gold recorded new all-time highs in 2025, while Bitcoin remains range-bound, waiting for the catalyst that could ignite its next move. One important reality must be understood: Bitcoin and gold do not move in parallel. Since 2020, their correlation has been very weak (around 0.14). This suggests that Bitcoin doesn’t move with gold it tends to move after it, often with amplified momentum. So the real question is not whether Bitcoin will follow gold, but when liquidity recognizes that the “digital safe haven” is ready to take the baton from the “traditional safe haven.” A wise investor doesn’t just observe what is happening now they study history to anticipate what may come next. The price gap we see today may turn out to be the opportunity the market has been patiently waiting for. As for your question: Are we on the verge of a major “catch-up” wave in Bitcoin, similar to previous cycles? Structurally, it’s possible but not automatic. For a true catch-up phase to emerge, three conditions typically align: Liquidity conditions stop tightening (or begin easing).Risk appetite stabilizes across growth assets.Bitcoin reclaims key structural levels and shifts from distribution to accumulation. If those elements fall into place, the probability of a powerful follow-through increases significantly. If not, Bitcoin may continue behaving more like a liquidity sensitive growth asset rather than an independent macro hedge. Markets don’t reward narratives they reward alignment between structure, liquidity, and timing.
As my 14th pivot approaches, BTC is developing bearish structure into it, something we don’t typically see.
The 14th could either mark a pivot low or signal continuation to lower levels (as seen for 8 months straight).
Historically, price tends to rally into the 14th creating a false narrative before the reversal. The absence of that move this time suggests the pattern may be changing.
General Analysis: - The current price of XRP/USDT is 1.4152, just below the high of the last swing zone. - The overall trend remains bullish on this timeframe, with several technical indicators favoring buyers (MACD, RSI, PSAR, DMI, Fisher, ADX). - Some divergences exist: Momentum and MFI are bearish, as is Stochastic, calling for short-term caution. - Price is positioned between the recent swing high at 1.4285 and the swing low at 1.3421, with equilibrium at 1.3853. Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance zone around 1.4285 (recent swing high) - Next resistance zones at 1.4642, then 1.4780 - Support zone around 1.3980, then 1.3900 (visible demand/support area) - Key support at 1.3674 - Recent swing low at 1.3485 (major liquidity/demand zone) - FVG (imbalance zone) between 1.4082 and 1.4154: if price returns to fill this zone, it will be a key observation point for a potential bullish reaction. Potential Trading Opportunity: - Price is currently testing a micro FVG zone just below resistance, with multiple supports lying below. - If price retraces to the 1.4082–1.4154 zone and forms a rejection candle (e.g., pin bar or bullish engulfing), there is a long opportunity. - Ideal entry: on bullish reaction around 1.4100–1.4150 with confirmation (reversal candle, bullish RSI divergence, or reversal structure on M5/M15). - First TP toward 1.4285, second possible TP toward 1.4642. - Stop-loss should be placed below a local swing low, ideally under 1.3980 or even 1.3900 depending on risk tolerance. - In case of manipulation below 1.4082 or a liquidation wick into the 1.3980–1.3900 zone, watch for an immediate reclaim above support to reinforce the buy idea (confirmation on lower timeframes). Example Entry Scenario: - Wait for a pullback into the 1.4100–1.4080 zone. - On M5/M15, look for a reversal candle or double bottom. - Enter long on the break of the high of the rejection candle. - Take partial profits at 1.4285, let the rest run toward 1.4642 if the trend confirms. - Stop-loss below the last local low. My Expectation: - I favor further upside as long as the support zone around 1.3980–1.3900 holds. - If price closes decisively below 1.3900, my bias would turn bearish, and I would wait for a deeper pullback toward 1.3674 or even 1.3485 before considering a rebound. - As long as supports hold, buyers remain in control on the 1-hour horizon. Note: This is not investment advice, but an educational analysis. Carefully study confirmations and price reactions at the key levels before any trade!
Let’s speak with greater analytical precision about Bitcoin
Since recording a peak near $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has entered a clear downward trajectory. This week it touched $60,000 before rebounding toward $67,000. We are talking about a decline exceeding 50% from peak to trough a range that aligns with the practical definition of a bear market in highly volatile assets. More important than the magnitude of the drop is its context: nearly all of 2025’s gains have been erased, with price returning close to 2024 levels. This suggests a broad repricing rather than a temporary technical correction. Key observation: the synchronization with software equities The decline since October has coincided notably with a sharp selloff in software stocks, while tangible assets such as gold, silver, and industrial metals have shown resilience or upward momentum. This pattern points to a shift in the market regime from favoring high growth, liquidity sensitive assets to favoring assets associated with hedging narratives, inflation risk, or supply scarcity. In recent years, markets were pricing in “digitalization” as the dominant macro theme: software, intellectual property, artificial intelligence, and cloud services. Now we see a visible reweighting toward the physical economy, supply chains, and commodities reflected in widening performance dispersion across asset classes. Analytical conclusion: Bitcoin behaves more like a growth/liquidity asset than a hedge/digital gold The evidence increasingly suggests that Bitcoin is trading more like a proxy for technology/software equities than as an independent hedge asset. This appears in three dimensions: High sensitivity to liquidity conditions: When financial conditions tighten or yields on safe assets rise, high-risk assets come under pressure and Bitcoin is frequently part of that basket.Rising correlation with tech narratives: When confidence weakens in the AI story or in elevated valuation multiples within software, risk aversion tends to spill over into digital assets.Sentiment-driven pricing dynamics: Flows, leverage, positioning, and debt-financed exposure often influence price faster than any short-term measurable fundamental variable. By contrast, hardware equities have shown relative resilience so far. However, that resilience is not guaranteed. If pressure broadens to the rest of the technology complex, the selloff could widen though such a scenario would require confirmation from data rather than assumption. Media signals: a sentiment indicator, not a valuation framework When major media institutions begin publishing repeated “obituaries” for Bitcoin, this often reflects a peak in negative sentiment. Historically, waves of intense coverage sometimes coincide with turning points, as media narratives tend to intensify after price movements have already occurred. That said, such signals should be treated strictly as sentiment indicators, not as valuation arguments.