Tellor ($TRB) had a wild trading session at the beginning of 2024, swinging up to $720 before plummeting to $180 in hours. Tellor's market cap once reached $1.46 billion, but it is now back down to $337 million as of today.
During the period when the TRB price was fluctuating, our desk noticed a significant increase in trading volume.
As there was no bullish news about the project released at the time, the volatile market could be led by a relatively illiquid market and an overleveraged trading position. The volatile price movement increased TRB trading volume on Convert when traders wanted to secure the price via our Convert Portal rather than trading it directly on the order book to avoid market risks.
When the entire market tanked along with BTC, our desk also saw a bullish SEI price. While BTC is down 10% and altcoins are down 20% to 30%, SEI recovered quickly in the session and reached a new all-time high of $0.87
Overall Market
The above chart shows the BTC price in the past eight months.
The blue line mentioned in the previous post served as support, and the BTC price recovered after the fake breakout this Thursday during the European session.
As we have stated numerous times since the beginning of December 2023, the $45k level remains a barrier to the BTC price. Unless we see a solid break through the $45k level, the BTC price will remain in this wedge pattern while the market decides a direction.
A report published by a crypto institution went viral on social media. This report took a different stance on the spot BTC ETF approval than the majority. The SEC will reject the spot BTC ETF in January, per the report. It will, however, be approved in the second quarter. According to the report, the price of Bitcoin will fall to between $36k and $38k. The report, however, did not specify the critical issues from the current spot BTC ETF applications which could result in the rejection. Whether it was a coincidence or not, BTC price tanked 10% a few hours later.
From a technical standpoint, the BTC price is approaching a significant resistance level. Our desk is not surprised to see such a pullback at the start of the year after a 150%+ gain in 2023. Nonetheless, given the BTC reward halving event occurring in the first half of the year and an eventual approval of spot BTC ETFs, our desk remains bullish on the BTC price in the long run.
Options Market
The above chart shows the 25-delta skewness for BTC and ETH options.
By comparing the 25-delta call premium and put premium, this skewness data is used to gauge market sentiment. A positive number indicates that options traders are willing to pay higher call premiums.
The skewness of BTC options is positive across the tenors, indicating that option traders prefer to buy calls rather than puts, according to the table above.
However, the skewness of the near-term ETH option is negative, and the skewness of the 30-day expired ETH option is close to zero. It implies that the market is less optimistic about the ETH price in the near future.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (2023-12-28)
Initial jobless claims in the United States were 218k, up from 210k expected and 206k the previous week. Although the figure is higher than expected, it remains in the low range of history. This implies that the unemployment rate in the United States remains low.
Last Saturday (2023-12-30)
China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0 in December, lower than the estimated 49.5 and 49.4 in November. The PMI reading below 50 indicates that the Chinese manufacturing industry is still contracting.
On Wednesday (2024-01-03)
The ISM Manufacturing PMI was 47.4 in December, up from 47.1 expected and 46.7 the previous month. However, despite the better-than-expected PMI data, the US manufacturing sector remains in contractionary mode.
The FOMC Meeting Minutes were released, revealing that FOMC members had a growing sense that inflation was under control, as well as a growing concern about the risk that the overly restrictive monetary policy could pose to the economy.
Convert Portal Volume Change
The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.
In the last seven days, our desk has noticed a significant volume change in the above zones. Except for the POW zone, most zones are contracting.
Last week, the trading volume in the DeFi zone fell by more than 40%. The two tokens that contributed the most volume growth were ALPACA and 1inch. However, the volume increase was offset by other DeFi projects' declining trading volume during the same period.
In the Gaming zone, our desk witnessed a massive increase in trading volume on GHST over the last seven days.
Our desk also noticed a decrease in trading volume in the Layer1/Layer2 and Meme zones. The slow trading activity during the holiday season, when people spend time with their family and friends, is one of the reasons for this declining volume.
Why trade OTC?
Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API.
To access manual price quotations, you may visit our Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/spot), where you can RFQ (request-for-quote) and trade directly with our OTC trading team via a live chat.
To utilise our Algo orders features, you may visit our BinanceAlgo Orders platform (https://www.binance.com/en/OTC-Trading/AlgoTrading).
For any other inquiries on OTC trading, please reach out to us via our email at trading@binance.com for our trading desk to get in touch with you and get started.
OTC trades may also be automatically quoted on Binance Convert and via API, offering users a quick and simple way to execute trades across 60,000+ pairs with one simple click. Binance Convert supports over 350 tokens listed on the exchange including fiat pairs. Begin trading from as little as 1 USD. To start, simply navigate to the Binance Convert & Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert), select the coins you wish to trade, preview and confirm the quote with settlement reflecting almost instantly in your wallet balance. For details and access to Binance Convert OTC API, please refer to our Convert Endpoints (https://binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/spot/en/#convert-endpoints) and reach out to us at trading@binance.com if you have any questions or require assistance.
Visit Binance OTC (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for more information on our OTC products and solutions.
Experience the main benefits of Binance Convert and OTC Trading:
Fast & Competitive Pricing
Instant settlement
Widest availability of coins
Bespoke service with unique market insights
Zero fees and slippage
Email: trading@binance.com
Join our Telegram (https://t.me/BinanceOTC) to stay up to date with the markets!
