Since May 2022 when MVRV with 30-day MA reached values below 1.44 (green line) it signals Accumulation phase for Bitcoin.

Historically, these moments demonstrate great opportunities to buy BTC for the long term.

MVRV is defined as market capitalization divided by realized capitalization. A simple metric, but very powerful for getting an idea of Bitcoin's valuation, if it's at a "fair price" or not.

Accumulation phases last longer than distribution phases, and during the 2015-2016 bear market there was the longest accumulation phase in Bitcoin's history, based only on the MVRV metric.

The current accumulation phase, which has now lasted more than 500 days, is the second longest bear market in BTC history. A great opportunity for exposure like in 2015-2016? Highly likely based on historical data.

When MVRV is in a downtrend it indicates that the realized capitalization is greater than the market capitalization, i.e. the selling pressure is decreasing.

Therefore, during periods when MVRV is below 1.44 the risk/return of selling the market is less and less favorable, while the risk/return of buying the market is more and more favorable.

Written by G a a h