bitcoin

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

The recent Bitcoin sell-off wasn’t a crash it was a transfer of ownership.
When price dipped into the low $60K region, panic dominated the narrative. Short-term holders and miners capitulated almost simultaneously, creating the impression of broad market weakness. On-chain data shows something very different: sell-side exhaustion.
During the decline:
Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked to 2.95, confirming forced miner selling
Short-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.97, meaning recent buyers realized losses
Short-Term Holder realized price hovered near $92K, leaving late entrants deeply underwater
This type of synchronized sell pressure typically marks stress completion, not trend continuation.
What matters most is where that supply went.
On-chain flows show wallets holding 100–1,000 $BTC absorbed roughly 77% of the sell pressure during the dip. These were not speculative entries. Long-Term Holder realized cap change flipped decisively positive, with over $5.68B added within a single week. This absorption created clear downside rigidity near current price levels.
Price behavior confirms it. After the initial flush, #bitcoin stopped accelerating lower. Volatility compressed, selling pressure weakened, and price stabilized around the $69K area despite negative sentiment. That is not distribution that is structural support forming.
This does not mean risk has disappeared.
Miner profitability remains strained. Hashprice has rebounded from its local low but is still well below its 365-day average. As long as miner margins remain compressed, intermittent sell-side pressure is still possible. This keeps the market in a controlled accumulation phase, not a breakout phase.
The key takeaway is simple:
Bitcoin didn’t collapse it rotated.
Weak hands exited under pressure. Strong hands absorbed supply with patience. Until demand meaningfully returns, price may remain slow and frustrating but the sell-side has already done its job.
This is the type of rotation that usually becomes obvious only in hindsight.
From here, direction won’t be decided by panic.
It will be decided by patience.

For years, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle felt almost predictable. Each halving reduced miner rewards, tightened supply, and historically helped spark a bull run that peaked about 12 to 18 months later.
For over a decade, the rhythm felt almost mechanical.
2012 halving → 2013 peak
2016 halving → 2017 peak
2020 halving → 2021 peak
Then came April 2024. Miner rewards dropped to 3.125 BTC, and expectations were clear: strong rally, euphoric top, then a cooldown.
Here is a long-term view of Bitcoin's price action (logarithmic scale), showing historical halving cycles and the path through 2024–2026:

Bitcoin did deliver, climbing to roughly $126K in October 2025.right on schedule. Still, momentum faded faster than anticipated.
By mid-February 2026, Bitcoin trades around $69,000–$70,800, after briefly falling below $61,000. That marks a 45–50 percent decline from the peak. Significant, but still less severe than past corrections that often exceeded 70 percent.
▪️Why the Cycle Looks Different Now
Several structural changes are reshaping Bitcoin’s behavior.
Institutional flows dominate.
Since spot ETFs launched in 2024, fund inflows frequently outweigh daily miner supply, making capital movement a stronger price driver than halving scarcity.
Macro trends matter more.
Bitcoin increasingly reacts to interest rates, liquidity, and overall risk sentiment, behaving more like a global macro asset.
A larger market needs bigger money.
At trillion-dollar scale, supply cuts alone no longer trigger explosive rallies.
Here is a comparison chart overlaying the current post-2024 halving cycle against previous cycles (adjusted for time since halving):

▪️2026 Outlook: Three Possible Paths
Bullish: Some expect an extended cycle with targets between $150,000 and $250,000, driven by ETF demand, corporate adoption, and potential rate cuts.
Neutral: Others see Bitcoin maturing into “hard money,” trading roughly between $75,000 and $150,000 with slower, steadier growth.
Bearish: A deeper correction toward $50,000–$60,000 remains possible if macro
Here is a closer look at the 2025 peak and the 2026 correction so far:

▪️Bottom Line
The four-year cycle is probably not dead. But it is no longer the metronome controlling the entire market.
Bitcoin is evolving into a global macro asset, shaped more by institutional capital than predictable supply shocks.
And here is the practical takeaway many wish they understood earlier:
Do not anchor your strategy to old market structures.
Anchor it to where capital is moving next.
#bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

​While the crowd panic-watches Bitcoin ( $BTC ) testing the $60,000 mark, Kaiko analysts add fuel to the fire, stating we are only in the "middle of the bear market." But let's cast aside emotions and look at the numbers hiding behind the loud headlines. Is the cycle truly broken, or are we being prepared for a final asset redistribution?
​Analysts point to a 32% correction from historical highs and a 30% drop in trading volumes on centralized exchanges. The scenario sounds frightening: if history repeats itself, the bottom of the current cycle could be around $40,000–$50,000, which would correspond to a historical drawdown of 60-68%.
​However, there is a metric that retail ignores, but smart money watches closely. I'm talking about stablecoins. Over the last three weeks, net inflows into "stable coins" amounted to an impressive $22 billion, and their dominance grew to 10.3%. Why is this important? At the bottom of the 2022 cycle, this figure reached 11.5%. We are almost at the peak "defensive position." This means capital hasn't left the market irrevocably — it has simply parked in anticipation of a better price.
​What looks like a crash and "crypto winter" to the average trader is $22 billion in dry powder to a major player, ready to flood back into risk assets at the first reversal of USDT dominance. The $60,000 level also coincides with the 200-week moving average — historically a concrete zone for long-term accumulation.
​The situation is borderline, and we are in a phase of maximum uncertainty. My advice: watch the stablecoin flows, not the red candles. Once this giant capital starts moving, there will be no time left to enter at good prices.
​#bitcoin #BTC #MarketNerve #CryptoAnalysis #smartmoney