“Everyone is looking at the same thing.”
Who exactly is “everyone”?
There’s something important to understand. Moat people throw around the word “everyone” to sound insightful, like they’re outsmarting the crowd by second guessing what “the masses” are doing. In reality, 99% of what gets posted in social media is just noise.
Just because a scenario is widely discussed doesn’t automatically make it wrong. TA is TA. And hindsight is a b*tch. This cycle, everyone second guessed the obvious scenario and tried to outplay the market narrative, all of them were wrong. Why? Because they focused more on outsmarting the crowd than reading the chart.
Here’s the truth: I don’t care what anyone posts. Never have, never will. I care about my plan, my analysis, my observations. Everything else is background noise. It might come off as arrogant, but it’s not ego, it’s discipline. That’s basic trading fundamentals: stick to your plan.
So when you say “everyone is expecting the same thing,” you’re really talking about a tiny fraction of people on social media, probably less than 5% of actual BTC volume. The real size operates quietly. Institutions, funds, advanced algos. they’re watching volume, liquidity, order flow, depth, risk/reward. They’re not scrolling timelines for validation.
They don’t care what you think. And neither should you. Avoid the noise.
$BTC
$BTC recorded an RSI reading of 16 yesterday, the lowest level since November 2018. This is one of the lowest readings in the indicator’s history and firmly places the market in a state of extreme oversold conditions.
From a technical perspective, any RSI reading below 30 is considered oversold. Reaching 16, however, signals that selling pressure has reached an abnormally intense level relative to historical market behavior. Back in November 2018, a similar reading coincided with the formation of a long-term price bottom, followed by a sustained bullish trend that lasted for months.
That said, it would be a mistake to assume that oversold conditions automatically imply an immediate reversal.
Oversold is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a bottom. In aggressive bear markets, the RSI can remain depressed for extended periods especially in an environment of tight monetary policy, rising real interest rates, and capital exiting high-risk assets.
A professional reading of the current landscape suggests that the market is in a capitulation phase, not an accumulation phase.
Technically, current levels may be suitable for gradual position building by long-term investors, but they are not appropriate for short-term speculation.
Historically, such RSI readings have represented excellent long-term investment opportunities for those with a long time horizon and strict risk discipline.
An RSI at 16 does not mean a bounce will happen tomorrow, but it does confirm that selling has become excessive and that the greater risk now lies not in disciplined buying, but in emotion-driven decisions under fear.
Markets don’t reward those who sell in panic,
they reward those who remain patient when certainty disappears.
The One Number That Matters Right Now: 7.9×
As a trained oil and gas reserves engineer, I was taught to watch one ratio: reserves ÷ production rate.
It tells you how long inventory lasts.
$BTC is even stricter than a reservoir.
In oil and gas, higher prices can bring on new drilling and add reserves. In Bitcoin, supply is fixed at 21 million. No new discoveries. No reserve revisions.
Now apply the same depletion logic:
ETF holdings: ~1.3 million BTC
New annual issuance: ~164K BTC
Coverage ratio: ~7.9× (about 8 years of current new supply)
That’s why this number matters the most: it compares demand to supply.
If long-duration buyers are absorbing multiple years of new BTC, price doesn’t need a story to reprice it needs time.
Yes, the path will be volatile.
Yes, OG holders will sell into strength.
But game theory says large holders usually distribute gradually (not all at once), while patient institutional flows keep absorbing over repeated rounds.
Add the market structure shift:
BTC dominance rose from ~38% in 2023 to ~60% today.
That is capital concentrating into the highest-conviction asset, not broad exit from crypto.
Short-term price can be chaotic.
Long-term, if persistent net absorption stays above new supply, clearing pressure remains upward.