Joao Wedson

Extreme sentiment has disappeared from the crypto market! We truly need to see strong optimism, but it must be aligned with other on-chain metrics and real buying strength. Otherwise, a dead cat bounce is the most likely scenario.

The biggest Bitcoin opportunities appear when even Long-Term Holders lose their major advantage over Short-Term Holders. When the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio drops into depressed regions, the market has usually already gone through a strong compression in profitability. Historically, these zones have offered some of the best accumulation opportunities for Bitcoin. This is powerful because it does not measure opinion. It measures real on-chain behavior. Alphractal. com

Bitcoin has entered a decisive phase. Supply in Profit has lost its trendline for the first time, while Short-Term Holders are no longer as pressured as they were before. In this new video, I explain why I believe the final accumulation phase has already begun, but also why I still expect one last wave of volatility due to Liquidation Levels. Fasten your seatbelts. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc1YgJuOaiE

Bitcoin’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is currently at -$36B.

STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures the net paper profit or loss held by Short-Term Holders.

Formula: STH Unrealized Profit minus STH Unrealized Loss.

Positive values indicate that recent buyers are still holding net gains. Negative values indicate widespread underwater positions and a more fragile market structure.

Interestingly, this metric was close to -$120B in February, when capitulation reached its peak in terms of unrealized losses.

Even though Bitcoin is now trading at lower prices than in February, Short-Term Holders are not carrying the same level of unrealized losses.

This is because the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is not as far from the current price as it was back in February.

This suggests that accumulation by Short-Term Holders may already be taking place.

To learn more about Bitcoin’s on-chain health and activate alerts and Alpha AI insights, visit Alphractal.com .

🐳Whales vs Retail shows that whales have reached a level of interest in Bitcoin Shorts very similar to what we saw in 2022.

Meanwhile, retail continues to move in the opposite direction, persistently favoring Longs.

This is a challenging moment for Short-Term Holders and leveraged traders.

When whales and retail are positioned so differently, risk increases and high-quality signals become even more important.

Do not stay without this signal.

Activate your alerts on Alphractal.com

Altcoin $ICNT , Impossible Cloud Network Token, is up 28% today, and here are its Liquidation Levels from 7 days to 90 days.

Before the move up, it had basically liquidated all the bulls.

And even though, in the short term, there are still many liquidation levels below, which increases the risk of entering right now, the big lesson here is clear:

In the crypto market, liquidity and trader liquidations are what move prices.

That is why so many traders struggle to understand why a crypto asset rises or falls without any strong short term narrative behind it.

Start your 3-day free trial at Alphractal.com

The short term still looks terrible for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Bitcoin liquidity changes constantly, and over the past few hours many traders have continued opening long positions.

For now, I think doing that is a terrible decision.

Activate your alerts on Liquidation Levels and only enter when other traders are seriously hurt.

$BTC $ETH
#Bearmarket

The only thing Short-Term Holders are doing right now is realizing losses.

Bitcoin has not allowed these investors to realize profits for quite some time.

The STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio makes it clear that the current environment is dominated by on-chain movements at a loss.

This is typical of a bear market, and once Realized Loss starts losing strength, Bitcoin will likely be in the process of forming a bottom.

That is why it is necessary to monitor this closely on Alphractal.com.

🔥The newest Liquidation Levels are now live on Alphractal!

Now even better.

Powered by data from 30 exchanges, an aggregated model, and a framework that takes into account positions by trade size, whale positioning, and deleveraging algorithms.

This is a Premium tool, so it requires a Pro license.

But you can still take advantage of the free 3-day trial.

Alphractal.com

Solana’s 30-day Open Interest change is about to turn positive.

The last two times this happened, $SOL moved slightly higher, but a sharp drop followed afterward.

A real liquidity hunt often happens across exchanges.

Also, when the monthly Open Interest change jumped by more than $2B compared to the previous month, the price marked local tops. In some cases, it did not even need to surpass that level.

Once this metric stays positive for a few days, some strategic selling to buy back lower later may be a good strategy.

Keep an eye on it!

⚠️This chart captured every historical top and bottom of Bitcoin Cash.

This shows the true power of Alphractal’s calibrated metrics and tools, such as the Workbench.

The most interesting part is that, even with this impressive track record, I would not be surprised if $BCH still falls further.

Right now, the bottom signal from this model would only appear below $100, which means there is still a possible downside of nearly 50% from here.

Will this actually happen? Nobody knows, and I cannot tell you that it will, because no market ever gives certainty.

But one thing is clear: if this drop happens, the region below $100 has a high probability of marking the bottom of this Bitcoin Cash bear cycle.

This is exactly what we are building at Alphractal:

Turning complex data into objective signals that help identify top and bottom zones with much more clarity.

Data comes first. Narratives come later. Make better decisions where real Alpha lives. Alphractal.com

If you are not worried about the short term, take a look at this. Ethereum is currently in one of its best phases for accumulation. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, NUPL, is in the red zone. This means unrealized losses are now significantly higher than unrealized profits across Ethereum’s history. Historically, this has marked excellent moments to DCA. So my answer on ETH is simple: Keep buying every week, or on any strong pullback that happens, because once $ETH leaves this red zone, it may not return to it anytime soon. Alphractal.com

Bittensor (TAO) was one of the most mentioned altcoins this week, with a strong weekly price recovery and growing market attention due to its position as a leading AI token.

However, until June 14, whales were heavily positioned in longs compared to retail.

Now, whales are predominantly positioned in shorts, while retail traders continue to persist in longs.

Stay alert, because the optimism around AI could trigger unexpected liquidations for many unaware traders.

🔥 Alphractal

Une nouvelle vidéo est en ligne.

Dans celle-ci, je passe en revue plusieurs sujets importants :

Cycle Fractal de Bitcoin
Analyse Institutionnelle
Théories d'Accumulation et de Distribution
Delta de Pression d'Achat/Vente
Identification des Niveaux de Liquidation
Vue finale du marché sur l'ETH

L'objectif est simple : comprendre où se trouve Bitcoin dans le cycle, où la liquidité est concentrée, et ce que les données montrent vraiment avant que le récit ne devienne évident.

Données d'abord. Récits ensuite.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3s65KCanvc

Whales are showing more interest in $TON than retail.

The Whales vs. Retail Delta shows that, in the short term, long interest among big players has increased on OKX, Binance, and Gate.

Meanwhile, retail is not showing the same level of interest.

In other words, large players are positioning more aggressively, while retail remains far less engaged.

Litecoin entre dans une région importante du cycle.

LTC revisite maintenant les niveaux inférieurs du Prix Moyen du Marché Ajusté de Fibonacci, un indicateur qui utilise le Prix Moyen du Marché comme base et construit des bandes proportionnelles de Fibonacci pour cartographier les zones d'expansion, les zones de retour à la moyenne et les régions d'accumulation.

Historiquement, durant les périodes de stress de marché plus fort, le prix de Litecoin a atteint la bande la plus basse, mise en évidence en vert. À d'autres moments, il a trouvé du soutien dans les régions bleues, qui ont également marqué des zones de valeur pertinentes à travers les cycles précédents.

En ce moment, LTC vient de toucher le premier niveau inférieur de ce modèle, entrant à nouveau dans une possible zone d'accumulation.

Les bandes supérieures sont généralement associées à des phases surchauffées et à un risque de distribution. Les bandes inférieures tendent à représenter des régions où l'actif commence à sembler sous-évalué par rapport à sa moyenne structurelle.

Sur une échelle logarithmique, il devient plus clair comment Litecoin s'approche à nouveau de zones qui, par le passé, nécessitaient l'attention des investisseurs à long terme.

$LTC est faible, mais une faiblesse extrême est aussi là où les cycles commencent à former de la valeur.

Ne perdez pas de temps. Demandez à Alpha AI gratuitement dès maintenant comment va votre crypto préférée et obtenez des perspectives incroyables.

Voir plus sur Alphractal.com

La fin du marché baissier du Bitcoin pourrait prendre un peu plus de temps que beaucoup ne l'attendent. Qu'on le veuille ou non, ce signal a été très précis, et nous devons continuer à le surveiller de près. Je vais enregistrer une vidéo pour tout le monde avec un aperçu réel de ce que nous voyons et l'histoire que les données racontent. Restez à l'écoute. Alphractal.com

Nouvelle vidéo YouTube : Alphractal Workbench !

J'ai montré comment utiliser l'un des outils les plus puissants d'Alphractal pour explorer les données, créer des formules, construire des signaux, comparer des métriques à travers différents actifs, et réaliser des analyses personnalisées avec beaucoup plus de liberté.

Workbench ouvre une nouvelle couche d'analyse pour ceux qui veulent aller au-delà des graphiques traditionnels.

Regarde ici :

https://youtu.be/iUnFOhNoeGA

Les recherches Google pour les cryptomonnaies augmentent à nouveau en juin. C'est un signe que les investisseurs particuliers commencent à s'informer davantage sur différents actifs crypto et à rattraper le marché. Les pics dans Google Trends sont souvent liés à des moments d'euphorie et de peur. Suivez d'autres métriques de sentiment sur Alphractal.com.

⚠️La pression de vente sur $ETH a été épuisée. Une tentative de récupération des prix sera probablement alimentée par une pression d'achat renouvelée. De plus, le dernier grand pool de liquidation a déjà été atteint sur ETH. Des taureaux anxieux ont été liquidés, ce qui signifie que des mains plus solides peuvent maintenant accumuler plus calmement. Suivez l'Alpha. C'est tout.