📉 BTC closed below its 50-week average for the first time in two months as ETFs lost $1.28B. Here is the data, what the streak can’t prove and the levels to watch.
📉 Bitcoin just closed its fifth straight red week, and the flow data looks worse than the price. Here is what the numbers show, what a streak can’t prove, and what to watch.
🚨 Nothing crashed. Bitcoin just kept sliding for five weeks, and this week the ETF money started leaving too. 🤔
📊 What Happened?
Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed around $74,850, below its open near $78,350. It also closed below the 50-week average near $75,535, the first weekly close under that line since the week of September 7. BTC traded near $74,224 on Monday morning. It is still about 40% below its all-time high of $126,080 from October 6, 2025.
🔢 How Big Is the Streak?
The five losses began from a weekly close of $86,507 on October 4 and total roughly 12% to 13%. That is a slow slide, not a crash. Analysts describe five-week streaks as rare, though counts differ by data source. One analysis using Binance weekly data found that after earlier streaks of five weeks or more, Bitcoin traded below that fifth close within 12 weeks each time.
💸 The ETF Problem
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1.28 billion last week, the biggest weekly outflow since the summer. $430.2 million left on November 5 alone, per Farside Investors. The funds’ 2026 net flows have turned negative. Ether ETFs saw $365.28 million in outflows, a sixth straight week.
😰 Who Is Selling?
CryptoQuant data cited by Blockhead showed 89% of short-term holders’ exchange inflows were sent at a loss. That suggests recent buyers are giving up, though it doesn’t mean the selling is done.
🛑 What a Streak Doesn’t Prove
A losing streak doesn’t say when the slide ends, and history is thin: there are very few comparable streaks. The macro-picture matters too. A strong jobs report lifted December Fed hike odds to roughly 77% to 80%, and inflation data arrives Tuesday.
📍 The Levels
Resistance: the 50-week average near $75,535, then the 100-week EMA near $78,900
Support: last week’s low near $74,800, and weekly support around $75,900 has already been lost
Momentum: the weekly RSI is below 50, per Blockhead
🟢 The Bullish Case
Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week average, ETF flows turn positive and Tuesday’s CPI comes in soft. That would start to repair the weekly chart.
⚠️ The Risk Scenario
ETF outflows continue, CPI runs hot and Bitcoin loses last week’s low, extending the streak to six.
👀 Three Things to Watch Next
Does $BTC reclaim the 50-week average near $75,535?
Do spot ETF flows turn positive again?
How does Bitcoin react to Tuesday’s CPI report?
💡 The Takeaway
Five straight weekly losses and $1.28 billions of ETF outflows show demand fading, not breaking.
The streak is rare but doesn’t predict a bottom, and last week’s close below the 50-week average is the signal to track.
I would pay particular attention to ETF flows, because they will tell us more about $BTC’s next leg than the streak count does.
🎯 Does Bitcoin snap the streak this week, or do you expect a sixth red candle? And what matters more to you: ETF flows or the chart?
I’m interested in hearing how you read this. Share your view below. 👇
That is the part worth watching.
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
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