📊 Inflation data lands November 10 with December hike odds near 77%. Here is what to expect, the scenarios for Bitcoin and the levels to watch.
📊 Tuesday's inflation report could push December hike odds higher or take the air out of them. Here is what the data shows, what a preview can't prove, and what to watch.
🚨 Core inflation has come in at 0.3% two months in a row, and the market already prices a December hike at around 77%. A third hot print would change how Bitcoin traders read the next few weeks. 🤔
🗓️ What's Coming
October CPI is due Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is 6:30 p.m. in Pakistan. It is the last major inflation reading before the Fed's December 8 and 9 meeting.
🏦 Why This Print Matters
The October jobs report came in at 165,000 against a forecast of about 59,000, and unemployment slipped to 4.1%. December hike odds now sit at roughly 76% to 78%, up from around 65% a day earlier on one prediction market. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, with two of 12 voters wanting a hike. These are market odds, not a Fed decision, so treat them as a snapshot.
🔢 What One Forecaster Expects
Continuum Economics expects core CPI to cool to 0.2% (0.22% before rounding) after two straight 0.3% gains. It also expects headline CPI to rise 0.2%, with gasoline up only marginally for the month. That is one forecaster's view, not the market consensus, so check the consensus number before the release.
🧮 A Messy Year-Over-Year Comparison
No October 2025 CPI was published because of the government shutdown, so a clean annual comparison for this month doesn't exist. Continuum calculates against September 2025 instead, which would put headline inflation at about 3.9%, versus 3.5% in September, and core at 2.8%, versus 2.6%. Watch how different outlets report the annual figure, because they may not match.
⛽ The Oil Wildcard
Brent rose 13.6% in October and ended the month at a six-month closing high, then fell back below $100 this week on US-Iran peace hopes. My reading is that the late-month surge matters more for November's report, which is scheduled for December 10, after the Fed's decision.
💬 What Consumers Expect
The University of Michigan survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations easing from 4.7% to 4.3%. That is a softer signal than the jobs data, but it measures sentiment, not prices.
🛑 What a Preview Doesn't Prove
A forecast is not a result, and the Fed looks at more than one report. A single 0.2% print would not settle the December decision, and a hot print would not guarantee a hike.
₿ What It Means for Bitcoin
Bitcoin traded near $75,352 on Friday, briefly under September's low of $74,968, and it sits below its 200-day EMA at $76,543. Rate expectations are the main driver for now, which is why Tuesday matters.
🟢 The Bullish Case
Core CPI comes in at 0.2% or lower, hike odds ease and Bitcoin closes back above $76,543. An in-line print would likely leave odds where they are.
⚠️ The Risk Scenario
Core prints 0.3% for the third month in a row, hike odds climb above 80% and Bitcoin closes under $74,968. Leveraged traders are the most exposed to that kind of swing.
👀 Three Things to Watch Next
Does core CPI come in at 0.2% or 0.3% for October?
Do December hike odds move off the 76% to 78% area after the release?
Does $BTC close above $76,543 or below $74,968 first?
💡 The Takeaway
Hike odds sit near 77% after a hot jobs report, and Tuesday's inflation data is the next test.
A cooler print would ease the pressure, but one report does not decide the Fed's path.
I would pay particular attention to core CPI, because the difference between 0.2% and 0.3% will tell us more about $BTC's next move than any headline number.
🎯 Are you betting on core CPI at 0.2% or 0.3% on Tuesday? And do you think one report is enough to move the Fed's December plans?
I'm interested in hearing how you read this. Share your view below. 👇
That is the part worth watching.
This post is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Crypto markets are volatile. Always conduct your own research before making financial decisions.
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