Wages grew 3.1% year-over-year in October—slightly below last month's 3.2% but above the 2.9% forecast.
Not a dramatic move, but worth watching. Wage growth that's too hot keeps inflation sticky. Too cool and consumer spending weakens. Right now we're in that Goldilocks zone where the Fed can still claim progress without panicking about a labor market collapse.
The interesting part isn't the number itself—it's what happens next. If this trend continues downward, it supports the soft landing narrative. If it reverses, we're back to debating whether the Fed cuts too soon or holds too long.
Either way, the market will probably overreact in both directions before finding equilibrium.
Not a dramatic move, but worth watching. Wage growth that's too hot keeps inflation sticky. Too cool and consumer spending weakens. Right now we're in that Goldilocks zone where the Fed can still claim progress without panicking about a labor market collapse.
The interesting part isn't the number itself—it's what happens next. If this trend continues downward, it supports the soft landing narrative. If it reverses, we're back to debating whether the Fed cuts too soon or holds too long.
Either way, the market will probably overreact in both directions before finding equilibrium.