ZScaler just wrapped their investor day. Here's what the gap stats actually say:
• 56.8% of the time, $ZS closes above the open — the gap holds
• 83.8% of the time, it closes above the prior close — gap doesn't fully erase
• 27% of the time, the gap gets completely filled intraday
• Median giveback from the intraday spike: 68.5%
So if you're chasing the pop, know that two-thirds of the move typically gets handed back by close. The math says fade the spike unless you've got a reason to think this one's different.
Will update with the actual investor day takeaways soon.
• 56.8% of the time, $ZS closes above the open — the gap holds
• 83.8% of the time, it closes above the prior close — gap doesn't fully erase
• 27% of the time, the gap gets completely filled intraday
• Median giveback from the intraday spike: 68.5%
So if you're chasing the pop, know that two-thirds of the move typically gets handed back by close. The math says fade the spike unless you've got a reason to think this one's different.
Will update with the actual investor day takeaways soon.