WEEKLY MACRO AND RISK CALENDAR | OCTOBER 5–9, 2026 Theme: With the Fed raising rates to 3.75–4.00% in September and Friday's payrolls weak at +29K with unemployment at 4.2%, focus will remain on the Fed minutes. Data is limited; direction will mainly depend on rate-path and inflation language. Positioning ahead of next week's U.S. inflation data may emerge later in the week. DAY-BY-DAY CALENDAR (times TRT, UTC+3) Monday, October 5 🇺🇸 16:45 – S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (September) 🇺🇸 17:00 – ISM Services PMI (September); prices and employment will be key Tuesday, October 6 🇺🇸 15:30 – Trade balance (August) Wednesday, October 7 🇺🇸 21:00 – FOMC September meeting minutes (Sept. 15–16) 🇺🇸 22:00 – Consumer credit (August) Thursday, October 8 🇪🇺 ECB monetary policy meeting account (September); release time unconfirmed 🇺🇸 15:30 – Weekly jobless claims Friday, October 9 🇺🇸 17:00 – Factory orders (August) CRYPTO MARKET IMPACT AND WEEKLY RISK POINTS The key event is Wednesday's FOMC minutes. The hike was unanimous; the question is how strongly the minutes support another hike. A hawkish tone could lift the dollar and real yields, adding pressure on $BTC and altcoins. A cautious tone could ease risk sentiment. Markets are caught between recession and inflation. Monday's ISM Services price component could shift Fed expectations. A strong price component would strengthen hike pricing, while weak employment would work in the opposite direction. Thursday's jobless claims will test labor-market weakness. A sharp rise would increase growth concerns. The ECB account may offer clues on European rates; euro-driven dollar moves could affect crypto. Liquidity may be thin early in the week. Around 21:00 Wednesday, sudden volatility and derivatives liquidations are possible. U.S. inflation data expected October 14 is outside this week's calendar, but positioning may reflect it. Weak weekend liquidity raises the risk of sharp moves after Friday's close.