USD rises for a third straight week despite sharply weaker US payrolls
đ The DXY ended the week around 101.93, up roughly 0.94% despite falling on Friday after the jobs report. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000, significantly reducing expectations for another Fed rate hike in October.
đ However, weaker labor data was not enough to reverse the dollarâs broader trend. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.34% during the week and, after dropping sharply following NFP, quickly rebounded as oil prices and Middle East risks continued to sustain the inflation premium. Markets therefore shifted from expecting an immediate Fed hike toward a delay, rather than pricing in a new easing cycle.
đȘđș EUR/USD fell about 1.2% over the week to around 1.1256. The euro faced simultaneous pressure from higher energy costs, a less hawkish ECB outlook and French fiscal risks, while the FranceâGermany 10-year yield spread widened above 150 basis points. Higher-than-expected Eurozone inflation also failed to generate a meaningful positive reaction in the euro.
đŻđ” USD/JPY remained near 158 as the USâJapan yield gap continued to support the dollar. Tokyo inflation accelerated, but markets still see limited chances of a BoJ hike in October, while the 159â160 area is increasingly constrained by intervention warnings from Japanese authorities.
✠The broader structure of the week shows that FX remains more sensitive to yields and energy than to a single labor-market release. NFP slowed the dollarâs momentum in the short term, but it was not enough to remove the greenbackâs relative advantage over currencies more exposed to the energy shock.
#ForexInsights $TRX
đ The DXY ended the week around 101.93, up roughly 0.94% despite falling on Friday after the jobs report. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and the previous two months were revised down by a combined 60,000, significantly reducing expectations for another Fed rate hike in October.
đ However, weaker labor data was not enough to reverse the dollarâs broader trend. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.34% during the week and, after dropping sharply following NFP, quickly rebounded as oil prices and Middle East risks continued to sustain the inflation premium. Markets therefore shifted from expecting an immediate Fed hike toward a delay, rather than pricing in a new easing cycle.
đȘđș EUR/USD fell about 1.2% over the week to around 1.1256. The euro faced simultaneous pressure from higher energy costs, a less hawkish ECB outlook and French fiscal risks, while the FranceâGermany 10-year yield spread widened above 150 basis points. Higher-than-expected Eurozone inflation also failed to generate a meaningful positive reaction in the euro.
đŻđ” USD/JPY remained near 158 as the USâJapan yield gap continued to support the dollar. Tokyo inflation accelerated, but markets still see limited chances of a BoJ hike in October, while the 159â160 area is increasingly constrained by intervention warnings from Japanese authorities.
✠The broader structure of the week shows that FX remains more sensitive to yields and energy than to a single labor-market release. NFP slowed the dollarâs momentum in the short term, but it was not enough to remove the greenbackâs relative advantage over currencies more exposed to the energy shock.
#ForexInsights $TRX
