Gold • Silver • Bitcoin • DXY | Week of Sep 14–20, 2026
The week was not a simple “hawkish Fed = sell everything” tape.
The FOMC delivered the first hike since 2023, the dots moved higher, and the dollar closed back above 100. That should have been a clean risk-off week. It wasn’t. Gold snapped a three-week losing streak, silver outperformed, and Bitcoin printed the strongest weekly close of the four.
The tell was the second half of the week: yields stalled near 5%, oil faded off $102, and the market stopped trading the press conference and started trading the digestion.
This review is built around that sequence — dots first, then the dollar, then the levels that actually held.
I - Week at a glance
One-line scoreboard: DXY won the headline. Bitcoin won the week. Silver won relative strength inside metals. Gold survived the flush and reclaimed the weekly EMA cluster.
II - The dots — this was the real event
Decision: +25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%
Vote: 12–0
Chair: Kevin Warsh (no personal dot submitted)
Source : federalreserve.gov — Sep 16 SEP release with PDF naming convention: fomcprojtabl20260916.pdf
How to read the 2026 dots (18 participants):
12 dots at ~4.125% → one more hike
4 dots at ~4.375% → two more hikes
2 dots at ~3.875% → September was the last move
16 of 18 still see at least one additional hike this year
The hawkish piece is not the 25 bp itself. That was priced.
The hawkish piece is 2027: the median no longer embeds a cut next year. Higher-for-longer moved from slogan to SEP math.
As of the weekend tape, October is still a coin toss (~40–58% hike depending on venue). December is not. Futures still lean toward a higher funds rate by year-end. Next live data pivot: August PCE on September 30. Next FOMC: October 27–28.
Trader translation:
Do not fade gold/BTC only because the dots are hawkish. Fade them if DXY holds 100 and 10Y holds 5% into PCE. That is the transmission channel.
III - Transmission: DXY, yields, oil
DXY — the week’s macro winner
Zone box to draw on the weekly:
Support: 99.07 – 99.70 (week low + EMA 9/21)
Battle: 100.00 – 100.56
Resistance: 101.00, then 105.99 (chart bull target 1)
Weekly close 100.215 (+1.13%). First decisive close back above 100 in seven weeks. EMA 9/21 are coiled just underneath at 99.71 / 99.68. That is a bullish weekly reclaim, not a finished breakout.
Zone box on the daily:
Support: 99.56 – 99.74 (daily EMA 21 / 9)
Battle: 100.16 – 100.56
Invalidation of the post-FOMC impulse: daily close back below 99.55
Daily structure: green-triangle reclaim into 100, then digestion. As long as DXY holds the EMA stack, dollar strength remains the default headwind for metals.
US10Y — spiked to 5%, did not runaway
Zone box:
Support: 4.92%
Battle: 4.94 – 5.01%
Resistance / line in the sand: 5.00 – 5.01%
High 5.008%, close 5.000%. Higher-timeframe dashboard is still strong up. The 15-minute fade does not change the weekly message: yields are firm. What did change late week is the slope — no clean break above 5.01%. That pause is why gold and Bitcoin were allowed to bounce.
WTI — the pressure-release valve
Zone box:
Support: 99.40 – 100.00
Battle: 100.00 – 100.62 (EMA cluster)
Resistance: 102.75
High 102.75, close 100.03. Dashboard: bearish alignment, “wait.” Softer crude into the weekend reduced the inflation-second-wave narrative that the dots were trying to keep alive. That is the missing link between a hawkish SEP and a green weekly candle in gold/BTC.
IV - Gold (XAUUSD) — flushed, then reclaimed the EMA cluster
Weekly: O 4,338.8 / H 4,399.7 / L 4,235.2 / C 4,378.4 (+0.67%)
EMA 9 / 21: 4,359.9 / 4,371.5
Zone box — weekly:
Support: 4,235 – 4,300
Battle: 4,360 – 4,400 (EMA 9/21 + week close)
Resistance: 4,400 / 4,432 – 4,445 / 4,500
This is a stabilization week, not a trend-resumption week. Price spent the summer below the band after the spring spike toward 5,500. The important fact this week: the 4,235 flush was bought, and the week closed back above both weekly EMAs.
Daily EMAs: 4,346.9 / 4,368.6. Close 4,378.
Zone box — daily:
Support: 4,334 – 4,347 (Fri/Sun low + EMA 9)
Battle: 4,369 – 4,400
First upside tell: daily close above 4,400
Stronger tone: 4,432 – 4,445
Failure: daily close back under 4,334 opens a retest of 4,235
Chart targets from your SS tool (context only, not next-week levels): bull 5,014 / 5,950 — too far for a post-FOMC week. Ignore them in the Article body; keep them on the image if you want the long-term map visible.
Read: Hike was priced. The 4,235 low was the market paying the hawkish dots in one candle. Holding 4,360–4,400 now is the entire gold story into PCE.
V - Silver (XAGUSD) — quiet relative-strength winner
Weekly: O 64.05 / H 67.34 / L 62.31 / C 66.26 (+2.72%)
EMA 9 / 21: 65.05 / 66.26
Zone box — weekly:
Support: 62.31 / 64.05 – 65.05
Battle: 65.05 – 66.26 (price closing on weekly EMA 21)
Resistance: 67.34 / 70.00
Silver did the cleanest job of the metals complex: tagged 62.31, reclaimed the EMA stack, closed on the 21-week EMA. That is constructive. It is not a breakout until 67.34 goes.
Daily EMAs: 64.95 / 65.09. Close 66.26 (+1.58% on the last print).
Zone box — daily:
Support: 65.26 – 65.09
Battle: 66.00 – 67.34
Breakout: daily close above 67.34
Failure: daily close under 64.95
SS long targets (95 / 129) stay on the chart as cycle markers only.
Read: If DXY stalls under 100.56 and oil stays heavy, silver remains the better tactical long versus gold this week. If DXY pushes through 101, silver gives back the relative-strength lead first.
VI - Bitcoin — best weekly candle, still a range into 82k
Weekly: O 76,738 / H 81,936 / L 74,935 / C 80,348 (+4.59%)
EMA 9 / 20: 74,217 / 72,443
Bull Market Support Band: 70,176 – 72,517
Zone box — weekly:
Structural support: BMSB 70.2k – 72.5k
Intermediate support: 74.2k (weekly EMA 9) then 74.9k (this week’s low)
Battle: 78.8k – 81.9k
Resistance: 81,960 (daily bull target 1) / 82.5k
Range expansion: only above 82.5k
Invalidation of the August reclaim: weekly close back inside the band
This is the cleanest chart in the pack. The August impulse reclaimed the band (“Bull X” on your chart). This week’s candle held that structure, tagged 74.9k, and closed mid-range at 80.3k. Bulls still own the weekly as long as price stays above the band.
Daily EMAs: 78,836 / 77,772. Last daily print slightly red (80,348, −1.11%) after failing to hold 81.2–81.3k.
Zone box — daily:
Support: 80,100 / 78,836 / 77,772
Battle: 80,350 – 81,960
Upside trigger: daily close above 81,960
Short-term failure: daily close under 78,836
Read: BTC shrugged off a hawkish hike and a failed CLARITY cloture earlier in the week. That is strength. It is not a green light to chase Sunday. The market is offering a range: buy weakness toward 78.8–80.1k only if DXY is not expanding above 100.56. Do not treat 81.9k as broken until it is a daily close.
VII - Cross-asset map
The hierarchy this week was mechanical:
Dots up → dollar and 10Y bid
DXY through 100 → metals flushed (gold 4,235 / silver 62.31 / BTC 74.9k)
Oil rolls over + 10Y fails to clear 5.01% → squeeze back through the EMA clusters
Weekly close: BTC > silver > gold > cash, with DXY still the macro boss
That is why a hawkish SEP and green asset candles can coexist. The hike was the first headline. The failed extension in yields and crude was the second.
VIII - Levels : Watching next week (Sep 21–25)
Quiet data week on the calendar. The live risk is positioning into Sep 30 PCE, not a new thesis.
Base case: sideways digestion. DXY parks on 100. Metals defend EMA clusters. BTC oscillates under 82k.
Risk-on add: DXY loses 99.55 and 10Y loses 4.92%.
Risk-off: DXY through 100.56 with 10Y holding 5%.
IX - Allocation check-in
Same framework as always. The dots did not kill the long-cycle case. They did raise the cost of being sloppy with entries.
Gold = ballast. 4,235 holders were paid for discipline. Do not chase 4,400. Add only on a hold of 4,360 or a controlled retest of 4,300–4,335.
Silver = tactical satellite. Best relative tape this week. Size smaller than gold. 67.34 is the breakout; 64.95 is the line.
Bitcoin = asymmetric sleeve. Weekly structure is the best of the four. That does not mean Sunday FOMO. Invalidation remains a weekly close back into the band.
Cash / USD = optionality. DXY above 100 is the reason cash still earns a seat. If you cut USD too early, you are betting the dots were a one-week event. The SEP says they were not.
Question for the comments: after this hike, did you add metals on the 4,235/62.31 flush, add BTC toward 75k, or raise cash because 100 DXY and 5% 10Y are back?
Bottom line
The Fed hiked. The dots moved up. The dollar reclaimed 100.
And the weekly candles in gold, silver, and Bitcoin still closed green.
Those two facts only conflict if you stop the tape on Wednesday. The full week says: policy is tighter, but the market will not trend down in a straight line while 10Y and oil fail to extend.
Trade the reaction into PCE. Do not trade the press-conference emotion.
Not financial advice. Levels from OANDA / Binance / TVC charts dated September 20, 2026. Policy figures from the Federal Reserve SEP, September 16, 2026.
BRIAN TRUONG
👉TRADE $XAU | $BTC | $XAG HERE👇
