1) The Realized Cap measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin’s supply by pricing each BTC at the price at which it last moved on-chain, rather than applying the current market price uniformly across all BTC.

2) On the monthly timeframe, the RP closed bearish for the first time in December 2025, at 1.12T, and continued this trend until July of this year, when it closed at 1.06T. This represents an approximate 5% decline, while the market price fell by around 28% over the same period. This shows that, despite the strong drawdown, the aggregate on-chain cost basis of the supply declined relatively little in comparison.

3) The last time that, after a prolonged bearish period, the RP began to recover was in January 2023, which preceded a major bullish trend that extended through 2025.

4) In September, despite the price moving sideways, the RP is forming a bullish candle. This indicates that the aggregate cost basis of the network is increasing even without a comparable appreciation in spot price. Since the bearish July close, it has risen by almost 1%.

5) At the same time, the LTH-SOPR has remained mostly above 1 since mid-August, indicating that Long-Term Holders are spending coins at a profit relative to their cost basis. This upward repricing is one of the factors contributing to the recent increase in the RP.

Written by Facundo Fama