$BTC 60k→80k was driven by ETF inflows + liquidity + short squeeze. But post-80k, the game changed—what matters now is whether spot buyers keep showing up.
Only 5 things matter:
ETF net inflows stay positive
10Y Treasury keeps falling
OI cools down
Funding rates stay reasonable
77k-78k support holds
If $BTC chops around 80k while OI drops? That's healthy deleveraging. Break above 81.3k with volume → next leg targets 83k-85k.
What would flip me bearish:
New highs + OI spike + funding overheats + ETF flows dry up + yields reverse higher
Bottom line: 80k isn't the test. Real test is whether actual buyers step in above 80k.
Only 5 things matter:
ETF net inflows stay positive
10Y Treasury keeps falling
OI cools down
Funding rates stay reasonable
77k-78k support holds
If $BTC chops around 80k while OI drops? That's healthy deleveraging. Break above 81.3k with volume → next leg targets 83k-85k.
What would flip me bearish:
New highs + OI spike + funding overheats + ETF flows dry up + yields reverse higher
Bottom line: 80k isn't the test. Real test is whether actual buyers step in above 80k.